(In western Uttar Pradesh and a few Yadav-heartland pockets.... voters say Housing for the power and the cooking gas cylinders will continue to garner voters for Narendra Modi.)
Since coming to power in 2014, Modi expanded social welfare programmes and kept it inclusive. No Muslim can say toilet or road did not come to them because they were minorities !!
Elections are won, elections are lost
-- famously lamented Rajiv Gandhi after he was voted out of office in 1989.
But his son Rahul Gandhi, Rajiv's wife Sonia Gandhi and their protege Jairam Ramesh and Mallikarjin Kharge should know that elections are also lost and won based on some powerful 'political narrative' to enthuse the cadres and also galvanize the imagination of voters.
One enlightened citizen of Aizawl township in Mizoram had told me a few years back that when one talks to any Congress leader either local or at the national level, they try to give the impression -- that it is they who will decide what the voters are going to do.
It is anybody's guess that sycophancy has harmed the Congress. This could be the culture of flattery from within the Congress fold. But the sycophancy of the Sickular brigade, the eco system and the 'homely journalists' in Delhi and other places also harm the Congress when they do not point out the lapses of the leadership and the dynasty !!
In 2019 -- I asked a Delhi journalist -- from a leading Hindi newspaper - and he is occasionally asked by Congress spokespersons to ask 'preferred/tutored question' to Rahul or Sonia Gandhi --- "Who will Congress prefer as Prime Minister from the regional parties ...likes of Chandrababu Naidu, Mamata Banerjee or anyone else ?"
The journo's response was a typical shameful one-liner "The Congress will prefer their own Prime Minister". And when the results came -- for the second time in a row the Congress tally was below 10 percent !! Ting Tong !! Now for 2024 polls what has happened -- and should not have happened is -- the casual manner of handling of Amethi and Rae Bareli seats.
Of course, this is not the only reason. There are a plethora of reasons and these are the 'answers' to 'why' the Congress may yet again face an electoral defeat !!
The grand old party has in the last 10 years remained extremely clueless on how to handle the Moditva phenomenon. There has not been any concrete electoral strategy as the central/nationwide plank. In 2019 and also in 2024 -- Rahul Gandhi's mannerism, public speeches and media spins -- are just revolving around an attempt to display 'hatred' towards Narendra Modi.
'Mohabbat Ki Dukan' therefore does not electrify Indian voters. According to columnist Pratap Bhanu Mehta, "...it seems to suggest that the Congress is, at best, speaking only to the converted".
According to a study by the Centre for Policy Research, the Congress vote shareremained mostly constant in three states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Thus, Mehta writes in 'Indian Express' -"Ironically, instead of the Opposition mopping up the anti-BJP vote, the BJP seems better at consolidating the anti-Congress vote. This is most stark in Chhattisgarh where Congress vote share has barely dipped, but the BJP’s has increased by almost 12 per cent." Another columnist Tavleen Singh -- also not a fan of Modi - notes: ... "...in rural India people have seen changes in their lives, and they believe that these changes have happened because of Modi.
"These are not remarkable changes. They are simple things like roads, drinking water, electricity, and Internet services but because they were not there before, they seem remarkable".
This is an area Congress needs to look into. When Rahul Gandhi says - Modi is a threat to Secularism and Democracy -- people of India know Rahul and his eco system and the grand old party itself -- have not moved out of the politics of negativity and hatred -- guided and anchored around the slogans such as 'Suit Boot Ki Sarkar' and 'Chowkidar Chor Hae'.
In contrast, Congress is facing an overwhelmingly shrewd and popular prime minister. He is in power in Delhi for a decade and prior to that he was Gujarat Chief Minister for 13 years ... so even after 23 years -- there is no substantial anti incumbency or any wave of negativity/dislike or the will for rejecting him. Some voters will always vote against him and his party - that's the beauty of Democracy.
But the hard reality is the BJP knows it better on how to handle election management, the use of sentiment and oratory powers. Modi is also a deeply connected leader.
He and his party have the motivation and the party is also "well resourced and has a smart political machine".
On the other hand, the Congress has adhocism. Sometimes it is Dalits, sometimes minorities, sometimes caste groups in general. Sometimes OBC, caste census. Attack on Gautam Adani evening forgetting that the state governments run by the Congress - three states including Telangana - now need adequate investment. This is simply a wrong way to measure politics !!
Pratap Bhanu Mehta gives his analogy: "The BJP engages in an identity politics of Hindutva. But it is far more conscious that identity is politically generated.
The Left’s identitarianism seems even more imprisoning, and deeply anti-political."
"Take the latest canard: The north-south distinction," wrote Mehta adding, "There are differences between north and south. But the intellectual scaffolding that Congress supporters are trying to build around them is counterproductive, bordering on the racist. It belies the fact that there is simmering communalism in the south, even in Kerala.
"Caste as a social construct is as oppressive in states like Tamil Nadu as anywhere else. And it is odd to claim that Karnataka can go from being the paragon of evil to virtue and Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan from virtue to evil in one election.
It underestimates the potential for the BJP in the south. "
"The Congress needs to either devise a cohesive and attractive narrative offering an assuring alternative model of politics to what is being practiced by the BJP. Further, the Congress has to craft a more appealing governance model that can resonate with traditional support bases," says the web magazine 'The Diplomat'.
"In the longer term, Congress needs to come out with an overarching political narrative to which modern aspirational India can easily relate. For instance, the Modi-led BJP has over the years broadly crafted a political narrative featuring three major planks: Hindutva and a wider pitch for cultural revivalism; nationalistic pride and development....," it said.
"Congress will have to burn the midnight oil to find a compelling counter to such a set of broad-based catch-all political narratives."
Fact-File
** 800 million people benefited by Gas Cylinder scheme
One woman voter in Hathras area said: "Modi Chahiye .... aur koi nahi chahiye (We want only Modi, no one else)".
ends
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