Allahabad/Lucknow
Rae Bareli made news on May 20 when it went for voting to decide the fate of Rahul Gandhi. Even Amethi fell into that category the same day and the polls sealed the electoral fortunes for BJP’s high-profile lawmaker Smriti Irani.
On May 25th – that is the six phase of polling – Uttar Pradesh will have polling in as many as 14 parliamentary segments.
Sultanpur will be keenly watched as Rahul’s aunt Maneka Gandhi, a noted animal activist, is the BJP nominee. Earlier the seat was represented by Ms Maneka’s son Varun Gandhi. In 2019 polls, Maneka and Varun swapped the constituencies as mother moved to Sultanpur and Rahul Gandhi’s cousin went to try his luck in Pilibhit, the seat earlier represented by Maneka Gandhi. Varun has been denied party ticket from Pilibhit this year.
In 2024 polls, BJP’s Maneka Gandhi will take on Samajwadi Party candidate Ram Bhual Nishad. Five years back, in 2019 Maneka had a close fight polling 459,196 votes and BSP’s Chandra Bhadra Singh came quite close as he could manage 4,44,670 votes.
There are five assembly segments falling under Sultanpur Lok Sabha segment and what gives Maneka Gandhi – a huge advantage – is the fact that four of them Sultanpur, Sultanpur Sadar, Lambhua and Kadipur (SC) elected BJP MLAs in 2022 polls. Only exception was Isauli which elected a Muslim Samajwadi Party MLA – Md. Tahir Khan.
Tahir Khan was BSP MP from Sultanpur in 2004. In 2009, the seat came to Sanjay Singh of Congress and in 2014, it was Varun Gandhi.
Locals also say Varun Gandhi did not perform very well and it was wise on the part of BJP that Maneka Gandhi had contested in 2019. She has been again fielded from Sultanpur this year.
People also discuss why and how Varun Gandhi was denied BJP ticket. Like elsewhere, in Sultanpur too people debated whether Varun could strike any deal with his ‘estranged’ cousins Rahul and Priyanka in future.
“Even this year, there was rumour that Varun Gandhi could be fielded by BJP from Rae Bareli but ultimately that did not materialise. It will not be wise for us to speculate why this did not happen?” says shopkeeper Prashant Azad.
A local educationist Sameera Khan says, “Indian voters are unpredictable. Local voters also feel neglected by Gandhi family members either in Amethi or Sultanpur. While Rahul lost Amethi in 2019, who knows Maneka may lose Sultanpur in 2024”.
Others do not agree. BJP worker Shivam Yadav says, “I may not be sure about Rae Bareli or even Amethi; but in Sultanpur no one can beat the senior parliamentarian Maneka Gandhi who has a big reputation of delivering”.
On May 25th, all eyes will be in Azamgarh also – a constituency with a substantial Muslim voters. As a matter of fact, in 2019, out of 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh, the BJP bagged 62 seats and its ally Apna Dal got two in the last general elections. The Congress managed just one seat, with Sonia Gandhi retaining Raebareli.
The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati had an alliance and they won 5 and 10 seats respectively. RLD was with them but drew a blank This time there is no alliance between BSP and SP. Instead RLD is in the NDA fold and Samajwadi Party and Congress are in alliance.
From the 14 seats that will go for voting on May 25th, in 2019, the BJP had bagged nine in the Purvanchal region, BSP had four and only Akhilesh Yadav could win Azamgarh for his Samajwadi Party.
In 2022 by-polls, powered by Yogi Adityanath factor, the BJP sprang a major surprise when Bhojouri actor Dinesh Lal Yadav 'Nirhua' could win the Azamgarh seat. It was a shocker for Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, who had won the seat in 2019 by polling 6,21,578 votes – that is a high 60.04 per cent,
BJP’s Dinesh Lal Yadav 'Nirahua' could win only 3,61,704 – a modest 35.1 percent votes. But Akhilesh Yadav had vacated the seat in 2022 after he was elected to the state assembly.
In 2024, Samajwadi Party candidate is Akhilesh’s cousin Dharmendra Yadav and BJP has again reposed faith in the actor Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirhua. There is also a BSP nominee from Ms Mayawati ---- Mashhod Sabeeha Ansari. And he could actually harm the Samajwadi Party most if he can poll a sizable chunk of Muslim and Dalit votes.
Azamgarh is certainly a high-profile constituency which in 2008 was represented by BSP’s Akbar Ahmad – once an associate of Late Sanjay Gandhi. In 2014, it was won by no less than former UP Chief Minister and the Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Allahabad and Phulpur region is in the news lately due to a stampede in the rally by Congress and the Samajwadi Party. Does the swelling crowd signal something unexpected in Uttar Pradesh?
Allahabad is famous for returning BJP’s former president Murli Manohar Joshi in 1996, 1998 and 1999.
In 2004, veteran Rewati Raman Singh won the seat for the Samajwadi Party. He again won in 2009 also. But in 2014 Shyama Charan Gupta could pick up the prestigious seat for the Lotus party and in 2019, it was the turn of Rita Bahuguna Joshi of the BJP.
In 2024, BJP’s nominee is Neeraj Tripathi while Congress as part of agreement with the Samajwadi Party has fielded Ujjwal Raman Singh. Notably, in 2019 -- BJP’s Rita Bahuguna Joshi had polled 494,454 votes making about 55.62 percent while the nearest Samajwadi Party rival Rajendra Singh Patel had managed support of 3,10,179 voters – making about 34 per cent of total votes polled.
In the sixth phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, for which voting will take place on May 25 (Saturday), politics is actually steeped in the legacies of a few mafia and musclemen.
The five seats that the BJP could won win in 2019 in this phase were Azamgarh (won by Akhilesh) and Ambedkarnagar, Shravasti, Lalganj and Jaunpur – all four went to BSP.
The Domariyaganj Lok Sabha constituency has been essentially a Jagdambika Pal show since 2009. He is the sitting MP and the Lotus party has yet again fielded him.
In 2009 Jagdambika Pal had won on the Congress ticket and in last two polls, he won the seat for the BJP in 2014 and also in 2019. Now he is eyeing it for the fourth term.
In 2019, Congress party’s Sikandar Ali Jalaluddin was also in the fray. BJP candidate Jagdambika Pal had polled 492,253 votes polling 49.96 per cent votes and BSP’s Aftab Alam had managed 3,86,932 votes – that is 39.27 per cent only.
In some parliamentary constituencies, the caste equations are also crucial.
Kurmi voters, 11% of the population in the constituency, are believed to be kingmakers in Pratapgarh. In 2019, BJP’s Sangam Lal Gupta defeated the BSP’s Ashok Tripathi. In 2014, the seat went to the BJP’s ally, Apna Dal.
But one should not forget that the Congress came out victorious in 2009.
The BJP has shown trust in its sitting MP while the SP has fielded SP Singh Patel, a Kurmi.
Local sources in political parties say, a former UP minister Raghuraj Pratap Singh (alias Raja Bhaiya) and senior Congress leader Pramod Tiwari are big influencers in the constituency.
The birthplace of socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia, Ambedkar Nagar has been a BSP stronghold. No doubt, Mayawati’s nominee Ritesh Pandey won this seat from the BJP in 2019, polling 51.72% of the votes. Dalits, Kurmis, Brahmins and Muslims are dominant voters in this area.
The BJP candidate this time is Ritesh Pandey and the SP fielded Lalji Verma while the BSP has chosen Kawar Hayat Ansari.
Shravasti is another important constituency going to the polls in this phase.
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| Religion, Caste Upper hand: Eenadu newspaper - Blogger's take |
The BJP snatched this seat from the Congress in 2014 only to lose to the BSP in 2019. In 2024, the BJP has picked Saket Mishra as its candidate while the SP has fielded Ram Shiromani.
Saket is the son of Nripendra Mishra, a retired IAS officer who served as principal secretary to PM Narendra Modi and is currently chairman of the Ram Temple construction committee. Saket is also a nominated MLC in U.P’s Upper House.
In another twist in electoral drama, the BJP is relying on former Maharashtra Congress leader Kripashankar Singh to reclaim Jaunpur from the BSP.Brahmin and Thakur voters are decisive here.
Locals say, Dhanajay Singh, a muscleman-turned-politician, influenced elections in the past. Babu Singh Kushwaha, an OBC leader is the SP candidate this year.
In 2019, the BJP’s Harish Dwivedi won Basti constituency by defeating BSP’s Ram Prasad Chaudhary. The BJP has repeated the candidate. The SP has fielded Ram Prasad Chaudhary and Daya Shankar Mishra is the BSP candidate.
Among the remaining, Lalganj, a reserved constituency, went to the BSP in 2019. In 2024, Neelam Sonkar is the BJP’s candidate while the SP and the BSP have fielded Daroga Saroj and Indu Chaudhary, respectively.
The BJP won the Sant Kabir Nagar seat both in 2014 and 2019. In 2019, the BJP’s Praveen Nishad defeated the BSP’s Bheeshma Shankar. The BJP has repeated its sitting MP but Samajwadi Party has brought Pappu Nishad. On the other hand, Mohd Alam is the BSP candidate.
In Machhlishahr, the BJP’s Bholanath won by defeating the BSP’s Tribhuvan Ram by just 181 votes. Bhadohi is a new constituency since 2008 and has gone to the BJP in 2014 and 2019.
The BJP has fielded Vinod Kumar Bind and the Trinamool Congress, an SP ally, chosen Laliteshpati Tripathi.
Ends
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