Rahul's Congress may end up maximum show of seats between 70 and 95 :::: "Saffron bottle and green genie" -- Missive and words of wisdom from Pakistan

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is apparently busy creating ground to blame EVM for the final outcome on June 4.  In contrast, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is working to a plan as he always does. The theory that Modi is nervous after first two phases of polls or even after the third one on May 7th is the music from the Sickular ecosystem.

There is only sound and fury; signifying nothing. 

They made similar noises in 2019. Congress friendly journalists got shockers when the results came and in many news organisations all kinds of post-result politics surfaced. 

Many big promises could not be implemented as the Congress was too far from power and actually too far from reality.

I used to work for UNI those days !!

Blogger in Old Parliament House 

The Sickular brigade would say the same thing during 2017 and 2022 assembly elections and there would be doubting Thomas across TV channels to suggest how Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul team is the game changer. Nothing like that happened. 

Like it is being circulated in 2024; in circa 2019 -- Modi-bashing club circulated an imaginative theory that BJP's numbers may fall and the RSS will nominate Nitin Gadkari to be the new Prime Minister.

Ting Tong !!

 

Now, the hard statistics and presumptions. 

Congress strike rate:

2019 -- contested 421 seats --- won 52 ---- strike rate: 12.35 per cent

2014 - contested 464 seats -- won 44  ---- strike rate : 9.48 per cent

2009 - Congress contested 440 seats - won -- 206 - Strike rate: 46.81 per cent

(average -- strike rate -- 22.79 per cent for three polls // 22.8

2004 ---  Congress contested - 417 --- Congress won - 145 seats --- 34.77 per cent

Average strike rate:  from four polls -- 25.66 per cent

In 2024, Congress has put up candidates in 338 seats contesting --- So average 25 per cent strike rate -- will fetch them 82 seats.

If we consider the strike rate slightly low -- it would be 70-72 seats. Not much to make a difference in the corridors of power -- but this would also mean at least 18 seats more from what it got in 2019 and nearly 30 seats more than its 2014 -- that is all time low tally of 44.

Now if some benefits of doubt is given and presuming Congress manages 30 per cent strike rate --- the total number of seats would come to 101-102 seats. This is like a maximum pull - a party like Congress can expect given its poor organisational structures in many states. 

There is another way of looking at the contest. Hit and pick style of calculation. 

# Congress may not get any seat out of 23 seats it is contesting in Andhra Pradesh.

* Congress tally from Gujarat -- also likely to be zero 

** From Madhya Pradesh as well, its tally would be probably 2-3

** Rajasthan -- 4-5

** Haryana - especially after fresh political crisis -- one can give Congress at least 4 out of 10

Karnataka - From total 28 seats - Congress may pick up 8 to 10. 

Kerala -- The Left is expected to do well; but still let us consider 8 seats for Congress.

Tamil Nadu - Congress has an edge as DMK partner and may be able to pick up 10 seats.

Maharashtra - Congress is contesting 17 seats. Last time it won only one. This time its allies NCP (Pawar) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) are facing existential crisis. Sharad Pawar already says smaller outfits led by former Congress leaders may merge with the Congress. This is the language of a defeated man and hence -- let us give Congress at least 5. 

Odisha -- Let us assume Congress gets one seat.

UP -- Congress is contesting  17 and  while Rae Bareli looks possible, still let us presume Congress will get 2.

Bihar too -- even if RJD does well, the Congress tally may not be more than 2-3. In 2019, Congress was the only party from opposition that won the prestigious Muslim-stronghold Kishanganj seat.

Modi interview to Enadu newspaper 

In West Bengal, out of 14 seats, it is contesting, Congress may get only 2. 

In Punjab out of 13; let us presume 4-5 seats would come to Congress.  

From Telangana - out of total 17 seats - Congress may pick up 8-10 seats 

Likewise Assam 4-5

Meghalaya - 1 

Presuming people of Manipur are angry with the BJP, let us keep one seat out of two for the Congress. 

Likewise - Goa - 1, Chhattisgarh - 3-4  and Jharkhand -- 1-2.

Hence by these presumptions -- Trial and Error method or Hit and Pick -- the Congress tally comes to 80-81. 

There is another important observation that ought to be made here is that if some theories are circulated that only a nervous Modi released a working paper data that shows Muslim numbers are increasing by 43 per cent; it ought to be underlined that such a massive work related to 167 countries must have been planned long back.

The timing of the revelation of the 'data' may force people to raise eyebrows; but a work like that ought to have begun months back. So, this proves our humble argument, that the Team Modi is working to a plan.

Journalists who meet Modi these days find him in absolute calm and confidence. 

Only Rahul and his Jai-rahim logy has different stories and the eco system is buying the line quite easily !!  

"...not a question of putting a genie back into the bottle" - 'Dawn' article

"PM Modi’s eyes, the problem in India is not a majority of Hindus, but a fertile surfeit of 200m Muslims (now 15 per cent of its population). Modi’s predicament is not a question of putting a genie back into the bottle. His conundrum is how to remove the green genie from the saffron bottle," says an article penned by F.S. Aijazuddin.  (Published May 9, 2024) 

He writes:

"Under PM Nehru, Muslims in India rarely felt that they had to choose between their country and their religion. Under his daughter, PM Indira Gandhi, a test of sorts for Indian Muslims came in 1971, when, after her victory in East Pakistan, she is said to have commented: “A thousand years of subjugation have been avenged.”

Incidentally, all of the rulers of the Mug­hal dynasty (whom PM Modi regards with anathema) — except for its founder Babar and his son Humayun — from Akbar to Ba­­hadur Shah Zafar, were born in India. They saw themselves as Indians by birth. Today, they are tarnished as Muslim foreigners.

On June 4, everyone in the subcontinent will know who will rule India for the next five years. Mr Modi knows it will be him. 

The Sharifs in Pakistan hope so too. They should anticipate, however, that Mr Modi as an emboldened three-time prime minister may taunt Pakistan by testing the fragile frontier between Kashmir (India’s new ‘union state’) and Pakistan’s foundling counterpart Azad Jammu & Kashmir." 

He may also decide to withdraw from the Indus Waters Treaty, which covers the rivers flowing from the upper riparian, to leave Pakistan frothing at the mouth, knowing that an enfeebled World Bank would prefer not to arbitrate.

Over the next five years, PM Modi could pressurise Indian Muslims to crowd Pakistan’s eastern borders in Punjab and Sindh as refugees. It happened in 1971, when up to 10m refugees from East Pakistan crossed into India. PM Modi may be tempted to return the compliment."