Battles of Relevance and fading Dynasties
All eyes on Lalu's daughter in Saran and Paswan's son in Hajipur
Patna/Muzaffarpur
In the fifth phase of polling on May 20 in Bihar, the parliamentary constituencies going to the polls are Saran, Hajipur, Sitamarhi, Muzaffarpur and Madhubani.
In Saran BJP's sitting MP and former Union Minister Rajiv Pratap Rudy is locked in one of the keenly contested battles against Lalu Prasad's daughter Rohini Acharya of the RJD.
The Saran constituency came into existence in 2008 as a part of the implementation of delimitation of parliamentary constituencies based on the recommendations of the Delimitation Commission of India.
Till 2008, this seat was part of Chhapra. In 2009, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav had won the seat. But in last two polls - 2014 and 2019; it has been wrested by BJP's Rajiv Pratap Rudy.
The saffron party has again reposed faith in Rudy and it remains to be seen how much trust, the voters of Saran will have on the former Union Minister.
Interestingly, one campaign line from the RJD camp is Ms Rohini deserves "sympathy" of the electorate as she donated her kidney for her aging father Lalu Prasad Yadav.
But electorally, Rudy is no easy pushover. In 2014, he had emerged a giant killer when he humbled no less than Rabri Devi, former Chief Minister and Lalu's wife.
Rudy had polled 3,55,120 votes making it 41.12 per cent of total votes while RJD nominee Rabri Devi could manage 3,14,172 votes. In 2019, Rudy humbled Chandrika Roy also of RJD.
Even in Roy's case there is a typical Lalu-family twist in the tale.
Chandrika Roy's daughter Aishwarya married Tej Pratap Yadav, the eldest son of Lalu Prasad Yadav in 2018.
Paswan bastion: Hajipur
In Hajipur, Chirag Paswan is seeking his luck in the name of senior Paswan -- a veteran pro-Mandal apostle Late Ram Vilas Paswan. But Bihar's politics vis-a-vis caste, the MY card and also punctuated
with the Hindutva politics have undergone serious changes in the last four decades.
In fact, Chirag would do well for himself to keep in mind that even his late father had lost the 2009 Lok Sabha poll from Hajipur. Those were golden era for Nitish Kumar. The state Chief Minister and JD-U chief has lost his prime. Now the JD-U readily plays second fiddle and to put that message across, the BJP is contesting 17 seats and JD-U --- only 16.
The saffron NDA alliance has other smaller parties like Jitan Ram Majhi-led Hindustani Awami Moracha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha.
PM Narendra Modi in his Hajipur rally speech tried to woo the Dalit voters and others by saying, "I did not come to Hajipur to ensure Chirag Paswan's victory. He will win I know as you all have made up your mind. But I have come here to return Ram Vilas Paswan's Karz (debt)...He was an exemplary colleague of mine".
Mind you, each time Modi made the emotional remarks, large crowds cheered in his support.
The battle is of supremacy and relevance and two stalwarts Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar. And that is depending on different factors. For its part, the RJD is now Tejashwi Yadav show and people say, "he is getting sympathy and drawing crowd".
In 2019 -- the RJD drew blank. It was unbelievable kind of verdict from the people of Bihar and it reflected wider acceptability of Narendra Modi.
Chirag is facing RJD's Shiv Chandra Ram.
Chirag's dad was also a champion of the cause of secularism. But in 2014, the LJP joined NDA and Ram Vilas Paswan won the seat.
In 2019, of course it was Chirag's uncle - Pashupati Kumar Paras. But the uncle-nephew relation has gone sour and the BJP poll strategists decided to trust Chirag more than the uncle.
LJP (Ram Vilas) of Chirag Paswan is contesting five seats.
On May 20 voting day, all eyes will be also on Muzaffurpar, another well-known battlefield of Bihar.
This is the constituency that made Late George Fernandes the leader that he turned out to be later.
George Fernandes had won the seat in 1977 while in custody during the period of Emergency. He won it again in 1980 and later as the Janata Dal candidate in 1989 and 1991.
In 2024, there is high drama in the constituency as candidates have changed sides either way.
Moreover, two communities Mallah caste and Muslims will play decisive roles.
In 2019, BJP's candidate Ajay Nishad had won the seat. But in the run up to the 2024 polls, he has joined the Congress. At the same time, the Opposition alliance candidate of 2019 - Raj Bhushan Chaudhary Nishad has now crossed over to the NDA fold. Ajay Nishad is now the Congress candidate and Raj Bhushan Nishad is now the BJP candidate.
As a matter of fact, Ajay Nishad had won the seat in 2014 as well but this time - it seems - the on-ground feedback within BJP for him was not good.
It has to be noted that Ajay Nishad is the son of senior Nshad community leader
Jai Narayan Nishad. Senior Nishad had won the seat three times and Ajay Nihsad won two polls in 2014 and 2019. Hence about 25 years it’s the Nishad family which has ruled the roost in the region.
Analysts say in this region, the BJP and NDA candidates are banking heavily on the Narendra Modi factor.
Various caste groups such as Kurmi and Koeri are expected to play important roles.
The BJP also thinks the saffron party candidate will be able to garner Dalit votes because as LJP (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan is in the NDA.
In terms of political sensitivity, Muzaffarpur remains quite active and dynamic.
Local shopkeepers and other middleclass people debate and discuss various
issues including the Emergency of 1970s.
One local resident Bijay Jha raised the issue of Russia’s recent statement about the alleged "US interference" in the Indian elections. "It is a big political signal...Modi is able to generate good will support from Russian czar Vladimir Putin".
Another resident says, what is more interesting and a little disturbing is the Congress and alliance partners are echoing the Western liberal view and are questioning India's democratic backsliding.
In Hajipur, voters said Rahul Gandhi's decision to contest from Rae Bareli came late. "He should have made the announcement at least 10 days back".
In some Muslim pockets, women residents declined to talk to strangers.
Others say, if the country’s Prime Minister speaks against them (Muslims),
they find things quite frustrating especially when Bharat has entered into the Amrit Kal period – that is beyond 75 years of its history.
They admit that the rise of Modi’s Hindu-nationalist politics under the banner of Hindutva despite India’s officially secular constitution has made Muslims anxious.
Of course in many segments in Bihar, Modi remains roundly popular due to his cultivated image as an aggressive champion of the country’s majority faith (Hindutva) and also as someone who delivered on developmental front, welfare measures and in diplomatic taking India's prestige to newer heights.
In Madhubani, another politically constituency, BJP's sitting MP Ashok Kumar Yadav is locked in a contest against RJD's Mohammad Ali Ashraf Fatmi.
In 1996, the seat was represented by Chaturanan Mishra, who became Agriculture Minister under H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral.
Shakeel Ahmad of Congress won the seat in 1998; but in 1999 after the
Kargil conflict, the seat came to Hukmdev Narayan Yadav of the BJP.
Shakeel Ahmad again won it in 2004 on the Congress ticket. But since 2009,
the seat is with the BJP.
Hukmdev Narayan Yadav won it in 2009 and 2014. But in 2019, it was
the turn of Ashok Kumar Yadav to reach Lok Sabha.
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Caste -- Bihar's chief electoral issue
One can say the return of caste politics in Bihar has happened yet again. Does it show Indian democracy still has miles to go to mature?
Top of it we have the great Hindutva push. Addressing an election rally in Hajipur, Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded his speech saying - "My request to all of you is to go to every friend and every families you know and say Modiji came and told all of us Jai Shri Ram".
Welcome to Bihar's election season. The eastern India state sends 40 lawmakers to Lok Sabha - this is exactly half of 80 from Uttar parliament and thus ultimately 120 MPs from two neigbouring states can decide easily who has the bigger chance to rule India.
In the election season, Nitish Kumar's 'best friend', BJP leader and ex-Bihar Deputy CM Sushil Kumar Modi expired on May 13. He was diagnosed with cancer. This story is also important as Sushil Modi and Nitish Kumar along with Lalu Prasad Yadav had formed the famous troika of younger leaders in Bihar.
Things have taken a full circle. Sushil Modi is dead. Lalu Prasad is ailing and aging and Nitish Kumar by his politics of flip-flop and changing sides have lost his original sheen.
By 2020 assembly polls, Nitish-led JD-U could win only 43 assembly seats as against 71 in 2015. BJP's strength grew up to 74. In 2005 when Nitish Kumar became Chief Minister for the first time, the JD-U had 88 MLAs and BJP only 55.
Saffronisation has taken a giant step in Bihar no doubt. There is another small anecdote. The long friendship between JD(U) stalwart Nitish Kumar and Sushil Kumar Modi is often regarded as legendary and compared to Atal Bihari Vajpayee-L K Advani bond. However, there has been a difference.
According to observers --- in most instances it has been Nitish Kumar who walked away with glamour and prized positions while Sushil Kumar Modi readily played second fiddle.
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