Modification of Indian Politics - 2 ::::: Crusade - the Sangarsh is still relevant.. every struggler is obsessed with his own Destiny :::: Defeat of Women Bill was rare thing of that scale in Narendra Modi's life and career ::: It could be compared to US denying Visa and Sonia calling him Maut Ka Saudagar

The first round of Modification of Politics started way back in 2002 in Gujarat. Narendra Modi was not shy or apologetic about Hindutva.

That created the brand called Moditva.  

Vengeance means another rage ... left unchecked !! 

Then came 2007.  

The then Gujarat chief minister and his policies and Governance Model were under attack. Sonia Gandhi launched broadside attack and used the now infamous phrase - 'Maut Ka Saudagar' - merchant of death. 

It was followed by a fiercely contested assembly election. First major election in Gujarat after Sonia Gandh-led UPA was in power in New Delhi.  

The BJP and Modi returned to power.  Namo was fighting with his back on the wall. Within BJP too, there were trouble makers. L K Advani stuck to him and backed him to the hilt. It was a gradual Modification era - Development and Hindutva was presented under a synthesis process and it yielded results. Many intellectuals including the likes of Karan Thapar asked - Can Moditva worked outside Gujarat. 

The voluntary response came from Thapar himself - "It depends on how you define it".  

Namo's Mentor Advani - Differences started since 2013 

Vajpayee with Nawaz Sharif: Indian PM was cautious - "Kaun sa chehra...."

Similar questions and answers might have been already asked. The defeat of Women Quota and Delimitation Bills in Lok Sabha was not only first major setback for NDA or the Modi government. 

It was also a rare occasion in Modi's life and career. In 2005 - Namo was denied US Visa. That was a turning point. He fought back. His admirers including Amit Shah know - Modi will still fight on. 1970 born, Indian PM is now 76 and around 2005 and 2007 - he was only in his mid-fifties.  

But the crusade - Sangarsh is still relevant. 

Who says - every struggler is obsessed with his own Destiny ?  

The bitterness is at its sharpest and this was amply demonstrated in Modi's address to the nation on April 18th. The relationship with Congress and especially the Sonia-Rahul family can only deteriorate further or it has already turned so. 

Now, it could turn more personal. It may not be wrong to point out that the 'more' the ties turn bitter; the more will be the need for both sides to take off the gloves. And for the rest of political mainstream and the nation too -- the choice will be one or the other. 

There may not be room for a third - mid-path. In other words, the nation will have to take sides. Take these examples - 

"Like a parasite (par-jibi) , the Congress party piggy rides regional parties" - said the Prime Minister.  

Here are more - "Congress applying its Divide and Rule policy -- something it learned from the Britishers".

"The Family-run parties do not want women to progress as women can end their selfish politics". 

A few hours earlier at a press conference, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra alleged that the Modi government had orchestrated events with a larger political motive. 

“.... a whole conspiracy was hatched to remain in power .... somehow form a permanent government," he claimed. 

*** In 2007 after Modi's historic win, Karan Thapar wrote for 'The Hindustan Times' ---  

"For the rest of us, voters rather than politicians .... we all have to make critical choice. We can either accept the idea of Modi and Moditva ..... or overcome our concerns with the Gandhi dynasty and Sonia in particular". 

Arguably not much has changed. Except - we may have to talk more about Sonia's daughter than herself or even her son. 

 

ends 

"Like a parasite, Congress piggy rides regional parties" ::::::: Amendments could not be made in the Nari Shakti Adhiniyam. And I apologise :: PM in address to the nation ::::: Congress, other parties committed foeticide by defeating bill

"Sirf Waqt ka intezar hae" 

(we have to just wait for the right moment)  

I'm sorry: Modi's message as PM woos Eves  

 PM Modi: "The Bill had no intent to deprive anything to anybody. This women's right is pending for 40 years"  

Congress has proved itself as an anti-reform party - PM 

"Congress applying its Divide and Rule policy -- something it learned from the Britishers" = Modi 

"Family-run parties do not want women to move forward as women could end their selfish politics" 

"Congress has harmed growth of several regional parties"  

Congress is today like 'parasite'   

Parties like Congress, DMK, TMC and Samajwadi Party have committed foeticide by defeating bill on women reservation: PM Modi.

"What happened in Parliament was not just desk thumping, but an attack on the dignity and self-respect of women. 

The conduct of the Congress and its allies in Parliament will remain in the minds of women across the country," he further said.

In his address to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi says, "Today I'm here to discuss an important issue, especially for the women of this country. Every citizen of this country is witnessing how women's progress has stalled... 

Despite our best efforts, we haven't succeeded. Amendments could not be made in the Nari Shakti Adhiniyam. And I apologise to all the mothers and sisters of the nation for this.”  

"Nation’s welfare is our priority, but when political benefit becomes the priority for some people, even bigger than the nation’s welfare, the women of the country have to bear the burden for this. The same happened this time as well.” 

“The country’s ‘Nari Shakti’ had to bear the burden of the selfish politics of parties like Congress, DMK, TMC and Samajwadi Party.”  

"I expected Congress to correct its past mistakes, but they missed an opportunity to script new history: PM Modi said. 

"Congress opposes One Nation One Election, 

it opposes driving out infiltrators from the country, 

it opposes SIR, 

it opposes Waqf Board reforms. 

Congress even opposed CAA and lied about it. 

It kicked up a storm in the country by spreading misinformation. 

It even obstructs the nation's efforts towards Maoist/Naxal violence. 

There has been just one pattern of Congress, lie and spread misinformation whenever any reform is brought. 

History is witness to the fact that Congress has always opted for this negative path."

"Congress, SP, DMK, TMC and other parties have made the same excuse all these years. Raising some technical issue, they have looted the rights of women. 

The nation has understood this ugly pattern of politics and has understood the reason behind this."  

"I will say clearly to those parties who opposed the Nari Shakti Vandan Amendment in Parliament yesterday: These people are taking women's power for granted. They are forgetting that women of the twenty-first century are closely monitoring every event in the country. 

"They understand their intentions and are fully aware of the truth. Therefore, the opposition will surely be punished for the sin they have committed by opposing women's reservation.”  

"Personally, I had hopes that the Congress would rectify its decades-old mistake, that it would atone for its sins. But Congress lost the opportunity to script history and stand in support of women. 

Congress has lost its existence in most of the regions of the country. 

Like a parasite, Congress piggy rides regional parties and keeps itself alive. 

But Congress does not even want regional parties to grow stronger. So, it hatched the political conspiracy of pushing the future of several regional parties into darkness by making them oppose this amendment."

"These parties also insulted the sentiments of the framers of the Constitution, and they will not be spared from people's punishment for this", he said. 

India summons Iranian envoy over firing on 2 Indian vessels

 India summons Iranian envoy over firing on 2 Indian vessels in Strait of Hormuz

The Indian-flagged vessels were fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz; no injuries reported but New Delhi raised concerns and steps up efforts to protect seafarers. 

Ambassador of Iran to India, Mohammad Fathali near the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

New Delhi conveyed its “serious concerns and displeasure” over the incident, even as questions mount over the circumstances under which Iranian forces opened fire on civilian shipping.  

Authorities said the Directorate General of Shipping is closely tracking the situation and coordinating measures to ensure the safety of Indian seafarers and vessels operating in the region.

India has reiterated that the security of its maritime traffic remains a key concern.

The incident comes amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that carries nearly a fifth of the world’s oil trade.

Modi to address nation at 8.30 PM on Women's Quota Bill

 PM Modi will address the nation at 8.30 pm, a day after women's quota bill defeat

In Cabinet meeting held earlier today, the Prime Minister accused the Opposition of being "guilty" and acting against women by refusing to support the Women's Reservation Bill. He termed the Opposition's stance a mistake and warned it would have to pay a political price in the future.

Meanwhile, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, addressing a press conference at the Congress headquarters earlier, called the development a “big victory for democracy” and a “black day for the BJP,” pointing out that the ruling party at the Centre had suffered its first defeat in Parliament since taking the reins in 2014.

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A day after the women’s reservation bill failed the Lok Sabha test, Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi on Saturday described the developments as a “big victory for democracy,” asserting that the outcome reflected the strength of Opposition unity and dealt a blow to what she called the ruling side’s “conspiracy” to stay in power.

“What happened yesterday was a big victory for democracy,” she said while addressing a press conference at the Congress headquarters in New Delhi, adding that it was also “a victory against attempts to weaken the federal structure.”

"It's a Black Day for them (centre) because they've felt a shock for the first time, which they deserved," she added.

Priyanka said the impact of the outcome was visible on the faces of those in power, calling it “a victory for the Constitution and Opposition unity.”

She alleged that the government had orchestrated events with a larger political motive. According to her, “a whole conspiracy was hatched to remain in power,” and the sudden convening of the session was part of a plan to “somehow form a permanent government.”

The Congress leader suggested that the ruling side had positioned itself to claim credit regardless of the outcome. “They believed that if the bill was passed, it would be a win, and even if it was not passed, it would still be a win,” she said, adding that they had hoped to emerge as champions of women.

“But that is not so easy,” she added, arguing that the issue went beyond women’s reservations and was instead about “their freedom to act arbitrarily.”

On linking delimitation with the women’s quota bill, Priyanka Gandhi questioned how the Opposition could allow a government, which she said has no regard for institutions, to alter the number of Lok Sabha MPs on such a large scale in the name of providing reservations to women in Parliament and state assemblies.

Calling the development a setback for the ruling alliance, she said, “This is a black day for them because they have been jolted.”

She maintained that the Opposition was not against women’s reservation, but questioned the intent behind the current approach. “This was not really about women’s reservation; that is now clear,” she said, adding that women in the country can't be fooled.

Referring to past incidents, she added, “We have seen Unnao and Hathras. In Manipur, who spoke up for women?”-- suggesting that the government’s record did not match its claims.

'Kaalbela' -- a political novel and popular Bengali film ::: West Bengal elections 2026 .... could easily inspire someone to work on Kaalbela-2

 'Kaalbela' - as a word would mean Timeliness.

Original novel was penned by Samaresh Majumdar.

In the year 2009, award winning director Goutam Ghose made the film.

It stars Parambrata Chatterjee, Paoli Dam, Soumitra Chatterjee and Santu Mukherjee among others. 

The film is set against the background of the Naxalite movement. 

Animesh and Madhabilata (Parambrata and Paoli Dam)

The principal character Animesh Mitra (played by Parambrata Chatterjee) is a simpleton career-seeking ambitious youth who arrives 'Calcutta' (of 1970s) from a development-starved but peaceful and calm Jalpaiguri in North Bengal.  His upbringing is different. As a result, when he arrives Calcutta, he is shy and cautious. 

Before his arrival; Animesh is told by his caring middleclass dad - "Kolkata shahar grash korte boshey acchey (The big city is waiting there to swallow you)". 

The old man also adds: "Politics is a luxury, that middleclass cannot afford". 

Hence even if he tries to keep himself away from politics Animesh is almost 'forced' and 'trapped' to become a Communist under the mentorship of two other senior Ramen and Subash Sen.

But after a year he feels that their union and the political bosses have been deviating from the 'ideals' of building up an egalitarian society. 

He is then mesmerised by radical ideas of Subhas Sen and young Animesh rediscovers himself as an individual but more importantly -- as a hardcore Naxalite.

The film and the novel portrays brutal Congress-ruled regime's Police. 

Subash Sen and other leaders are killed in fake encounter. In fact, Siddharta Shankar Ray's government in West Bengal then surpassed all records of human right abuses to crush Maoism.

Animesh's roommate in a paying guest type badly maintained private hostel, Tridip is shot dead. Tridip was an alcoholic youngster, a deceived lover and also a poet. But he was drawn into politics without knowing anything about the ideals or political principles of the leftist forces. 

This is also something that has 'happened' to many Bengali youngsters of the 1970s and 1980s and perhaps even later.

And the young women including a tribal who are arrested in charge of spreading the ideals of Naxalism, are raped by cops.

Animesh is tortured and made crippled. 

He meets a former college union senior - Ramen- who then has become a Marxist Minister. The latter understands the paradox and explains to Animesh behind bars (as the minister comes for an inspection of the prison) -- "you all (Naxals) did not understand what was to be done and what was not". 

Though from the same Left and ultra-Left movement stock; in real life and polity too the division between Marxists and real time Naxals remained and that difference also led to many killings. 

That was one part of Bengal's tragic story.  

In the film; a few dialogues are near classic and memorable. At one point Animesh is greeted by Madhabilata's rich-father with the salutation - "bloody Communist".  

The film ends with Animesh returning home from prison. But his and his beloved Madhabilata's life has changed by then. The daughter of the rich father - Madhavi now resides in a small one-room 'shanty' locality with their son. 

The imaginative Kaalbela-2 === is a justified idea. West Bengal politics has undergone a series of changes. Hence the lives of the protagonists and their offsprings too are different than what they  used to be. 

In Kaalbela-2; even Animesh's son Arka can be shown a mid-life character. He could be anyone - a wife-fearing regular office goer Bengali Babu (Bhadralok in a way).  He could be a failed father or someone who looks behind and wonders how much life and his state and his Kolkata has changed since his dad had moved to Calcutta to make his career.

Take a few dialogues ... which were prevalent in the 1970s and perhaps can be applied even in 2026 (with modest alteration if necessary). 

"Ei desh ta Bharat varsho, Chiner dalal er janya noe (This country is India and it does not belong to Dalals/gobetween of China)".

In 2026 -- sub-plot - a BJP supporter (say Arka's son) can tell : "This country is India and it does not belong to Bangladeshis".    

Film maker Goutam Ghose 

For romantic viewers - this dialogue: "I have been in a daze since yesterday as if a poisonous snake has bitten me" ---- would easily fit in the inner thoughts of a youngman when he gets up lazily in the morning -- knowing fully well that he is still a loner. This piece has to end with a homage to Samaresh Majumdar.  

Samaresh Majumdar (10th March 1944 – 8th May 2023)

The writer Majumdar was best known for his 'Animesh series' of novels, the second of which (Kaalbela) won the Sahitya Akademi Award in 1984. 

He was also known for creating the detective character Arjun, who is the central character of the 2013 film 'Arjun – Kalimpong E Sitaharan'. 

The Bengali film 'Buno Haansh' is also based on his novel of the same title. 

ends 

Three camps busy throwing challenges for Chief Ministership within Congress :::: Kerala Political chessboard

The Congress may feel delighted and even vindicated to an extent. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Women Quota push has been stalled and defeated. 

But it has its own set of challenges in days to come in Kerala - where chances of Congress return to power is seemingly bright. Three camps are at work. They are -- K C Venugopal (63), a a Lok Sabha member from Alappuzha and Rahul Gandhi's aide.

In the context of Kerala, the Congress leadership "accepted" Kerala leaders’ demand to bar MPs from assembly polls, though Assam MP Gaurav Gogoi was allowed. Gogoi is also state unit president and the party's chief ministerial face. 

Two others are -- V D Satheesan (61), former opposition leader in the state assembly and working committee member Ramesh Chennithala (69).  Both Satheesan and Chennithala have contested state elections.

During electioneering, the Congress had to keep its 'CM-face' plans close to its chest more out of compulsion. Otherwise internal feud would have come out in the open and by now things could have been far damaging. 

The party leaders and even supporters are aware of Congress party's high command culture. On social media platforms, intense campaigning has alreadt started.

There is a fierce competition between Satheesan Camp and Venugopal Camp.  

A section of his followers have projected him as a “a real leader, who led the party and devised its election strategies". This is chiefly attributed to Venugopal's closeness to Rahul Gandhi. 

In 2019 when Rahul Gandhi had sensed defeat in Amethi; Venugopal's suggestion that the then Congress president should contest from Muslim-majority Wayanad proved a life-saver. Rahul was defeated by Smriti Irani in traditional Congress bastion Amethi; and had he not contested in Wayanad - he would have missed Lok Sabha stint between 2019 and 2024. 

KPCC president Sunny Joseph says: “The AICC has a procedure. Many names may come (for the post of the CM). The decision is not taken based on the majority opinion of MLAs. At the same time, their opinions will be sought”. Hence, as of now it is clear -- the MLAs will technically decide on who would be Congress or the UDF chief minister. 

The UDF lost power in 2016 and failed to strike resonance with voters in 2021. 

The 'Rahul factor' is already in the scheme of things. Chennithala perhaps deserve the most has started sounding old syxophant:

“Kerala will give a massive verdict to the UDF, I will give its full credit to Rahul Gandhi. But if the party loses; a section of Congress as well as the Left supporters would blame local factors for the outcome.  

In Ernakulam, which is the home district of Satheesan, the district Congress chief Muhammed Shiyas says:

 “The next CM will be from Ernakulam district. We are looking forward to a CM from Ernakulam".  

Satheesan's aggressive leadership of the UDF campaign, marked by his direct attacks on Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, could go in his favour.

Satheesan also says: "The party high command will decide who will be the chief minister. We need not debate it in Kerala." 

The Chennithala camp remains hopeful that the senior leader will emerge as the winner in the ultimate analysis.

But there is yet another factor that could make Chennithala's work more challenging. 

In case the stance of the legislators is taken seriously, Chennithala could be easily out of race. As it is most of the MLAs would be the loyalists of Satheesan or Venugopal.

Internal bickering is nothing new in Congress. In the past, the power struggle within the Congress was between leaders belonging to the Hindu and Christian communities (K Karunakaran vs A K Antony, Chennithala Vs Oommen Chandy). After Chandy’s death, as they say -- the Congress politics in Kerala got realigned. 

Kozhikode MP M K Raghavan has claimed -- “Some leaders had approached me saying that I should contest seats where Congress has been getting defeated for decades. They said this would improve the strength of the Congress in the assembly and brighten the chances of the UDF coming to power". 

But the state leaders suggested otherwise. 

At present, the three contenders for the CM post belong to the upper-caste Nair community.

The last Congress regime from 2011 to 2016 was tumultuous, marked by a power struggle and intense lobbying for the CM post. 

While Chandy assumed office as CM, the rival group led by Chennithala kept throwing up challenges for him. The influential Hindu Nair community outfit, the NSS, also demanded that Chennithala be given a key post. 

Notably, after the Congress regime of 1982–87 led by K Karunakaran, Chandy was the only Congress CM in Kerala lucky enough to complete a full five years.  

Meanwhile, Kozhikode MP M K Raghavan’s statement that it was the state leadership which opposed issuing party tickets to certain MPs for the assembly election came as a setback for Satheesan.

This was because it was he who had taken a strong stand. 

In the meantime, K Sudhakaran, the Kannur MP and a former state unit president, has backed Venugopal saying the latter's continuing presence is imperative for the party.

ends 

Perish or Perform :::: Post May 4-5 after Assembly elections results are out; focus will shift to Uttar Pradesh -which goes to polls in less than a year's time

For Yogi Adityanath and BJP; the parliamentary polls performance in 2024 was a nightmare.

They ended up picking up less number of seats than the Samajwadi Party in India's most populous state and that too within a few months of grand inauguration of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya.

But for 2027 assembly both sides will have to do more than what is expected and outperform the other.  

The Lok Sabha has just defeated a bill to reserve a third of seats for women. This was more than a routine legislative business. It is seen as a decision of the Lower House of Parliament that could transform Indian politics to a large extent. Three decades have passed since the Bill was first proposed in parliament in 1996.

Yogi Adityanath is the UP chief minister since 2017 and hence anti incumbency will be strong there as the 'law of the average'. For Samajwadi Party and its leader Akhilesh Yadav too, the stakes are high. 

Even so called 'good performance' by SP candidates in 2024 Lok Sabha polls is taken as pleasant accidents. No one takes it seriously that the Samajwadi Party has done anything great at the party's organisational level. 

Data shows: 

Samajwadi Party polled 43.52% votes in 2024 parliamentary polls as against 43.69% of the BJP.

Compared to previous performance, SP managed a swing (Increase) of 19.05 per cent while the BJP suffered a drop of  9.19 per cent. 

From the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP,  the Akhilesh Yadav's party had won 43 and BJP's tally came down to 36 from 64 seats the Lotus party had won in 2019.

On one hand, the BJP has kept itself focused on the Hindutva plank and the governance model of Yogi - more popularly known as the Bulldozer mechanism. 

The assembly elections would be more complex.

On the other hand, it is the usual mindset - of a dynast - who feels people want to see the end of the Bulldozer Rule. Hence the SP leaders believe that the voters "will have no alternative" other than to vote for the Samajwadi Party in 2027 March elections in they want to defeat and end Yogi's rule.

A decade out of power. but it is still the family party where Akhilesh Yadav, his uncle Ram Gopal Yadav and wife Dimple Yadav matter. 

Unless Akhilesh takes some immediate and drastic steps nothing great can be expected. Two other players the Congress and the BSP of Mayawati are marginalised and may not do any miracle even as the Congress had won six seats out of 17 it contested.

This was a significant jump from only two seats in 2019.  

I interviewed Akhilesh Yadav for 'The Statesman' in 2009 immediately after Lok Sabha polls - there too; the Samajwadi Party did not do pretty well. Those were Mayawati days in office as the chief minister and Akhilesh Yadav was still three years far off from coming to power in UP with a landslide win in 2012. 

Modi at Ayodhya: Jan 2024

However the Akhilesh rule had ended in UP in 2017 later. 

In 2009, what Akhilesh had said has actually stuck as an important factor in UP politics. 

"Muslims have not deserted us," he had said. "...contrary to media perception, we don't have reasons to feel sad about the verdict... We do not want BJP and the BSP to do well; that was our campaign and that way we have succeeded".

(The Statesman, June 27, 2009) 

Muslims constitute approximately 19–23% of Uttar Pradesh's population, forming a significant voting bloc concentrated in Western UP and Rohilkhand. They tend to vote tactically for the strongest candidate capable of defeating the BJP, often consolidating behind the Samajwadi Party (79% in 2022). 

Voter roll revisions have recently shown lower deletion rates in Muslim-dominated districts compared to others.  

The districts with a high Muslim population (above 25%) are: Rampur (50.57%), 

Moradabad (47.12%), Bijnor (43.04%), 

Saharanpur (41.95%), Muzaffarnagar (41.30%), 

Amroha (40.78%), Balrampur (37.51%), 

Bareilly (34.54%), 

Meerut (34.43%), 

Bahraich (33.53%), 

Shrawasti (30.79%), Baghpat (27.98%), 

Ghaziabad (25.35%), and Siddharthnagar (29.23%). 

Closer studies must be made about BJP's performance in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls.  

The 2014 Lok Sabha election saw the BJP winning at least eight Muslim-stronghold seats, including Amroha, Bijnor, Moradabad, 

Muzaffarnagar, Nagina, Rampur, Saharanpur and Sambhal. 

But in 2019, the SP-BSP fighting in alliance, won 15 seats including in Muslim-dominated 

Amroha, Bijnor, Moradabad, Rampur and Sambhal. 

The 2022 assembly election outcome threw up another set of data.

Despite general perception that Muslims are against the BJP, the Lotus party won over a percentage of the Muslim votes in the 2022 Assembly elections. 

The CSDS-Lokniti studies claimed at least eight per cent of the Muslim votes went to the BJP.

In 2022, Uttar Pradesh got 34 Muslim MLAs --  most from Akhilesh Yadav's party

So far, the highest number of Muslim MLAs in the UP Assembly has been 69 in the 2012-2017 term.  

A majority of Muslim MLAs come from West UP. Twenty-one Muslim candidates from the western part of the state have been elected, while six are from Central UP and seven from Purvanchal. 

In terms of party-wise distribution, of the 34, 32 were from the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party and two from the Rashtriya Lok Dal.

Noida protests: BJP sees 'well-planned' conspiracy 

The episode has drawn sharp reactions.  

Noida region is the 'industrial jewel' of Uttar Pradesh’s growth story.

Hence BJP leaders see the situation as an effort to dent the state’s image as an investment hub at a time when major infrastructure projects are being showcased. 

Every issue counts in an election year.

ends