India stopped using the term "East Jerusalem" since 2017 :::::: BRICS at risk of imploding, reveals Delhi meet ::: Deputy foreign ministers and special envoys of 11-member BRICS on April 24 ended without a joint statement

 BRICS at risk of imploding, reveals Delhi meet

BRICS is deeply polarised,

There is a wide rift in the BRICS, of which India is a founding member, due to the war in the Middle East. There was no joint statement after the recent meeting in New Delhi that was described as "very tense". India as the BRICS president will have to do a tight rope walk ahead of the crucial summit in September.  

The meeting of deputy foreign ministers and special envoys of the 11-member BRICS bloc in New Delhi last Friday (April 24) ended without a joint statement. 

That despite diplomats burning the midnight oil.

MEA's Secretary (South) Neena Malhotra chaired the meeting of BRICS Deputy Foreign Ministers and Special Envoys for the Middle East and North Africa (BRICS MENA) on 23-24 April 2026 in New Delhi 

Spl Mention:  

The meeting, held on April 24, was attended by representatives of 10 BRICS members, including both Iran, hit directly by United States and Israel.

It was also attended by UAE, struck by Iranian counter-attacks on US military bases in Gulf countries.

An area in Gaza destroyed after Israeli attacks. The conflicts in the Middle East has led to polarisation with the BRICS even as India holds the presidency. (Image: Reuters/India Today)  

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a chair’s statement after the discussions, a format typically used when members cannot agree on common language. The statement said participants expressed deep concern on the recent conflict in the Middle East and "offered views and assessments on the matter”.

Pointers:  

Indian Officials from the Ministry of External Affairs attempted to tone down references to Israel and Palestine in the draft statement.

** This included softening criticism of Israel's bombardment of Gaza and Lebanon, and removing any mention of "East Jerusalem".

*** Officials  pushed to replace direct references to Israel in critiques of operations in the West Bank and Lebanon with the more oblique term "occupying power".

** A section of foreign dignitaries were surprised. They said, New Delhi has earlier agreed to such language at many multilateral fora. 

But it is also true India had incorporated similar changes during the India–Arab League Summit held in Delhi in January 2026. 

*** In bilateral statements, India stopped using the term "East Jerusalem" in 2017.

A fractured world gets reflected in international fora, and the BRICS, built brick by brick over the years, is no exception. Starting with just five members, including India, 17 years ago, it is now a wall with 10 full-time member countries and 10 partner states. 

But the conflicts in the Middle East have exposed the cracks in what should have been a solid wall. That deep schism was revealed at the recent summit in New Delhi, at a time when India is the leader of the bloc by rotation.  

The BRICS talks in New Delhi failed to produce a joint statement, and the cause is sharp internal divisions that complicated India's effort to build a consensus. Disputes over the US-Iran war, a standoff between Iran and the UAE, and an alleged resistance to India's so-called changes in the wording on the Israel-Palestine issue led to a stalemate. 

India, however, has clarified that there has been no change in its Palestine stance.

The divisions appear ahead of key meetings next month and the summit later this year. India assumed the BRICS presidency on January 1, 2026, and will be the head for a year.  

According to the report, the US–Iran War dominated proceedings, with Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) clashing over how the conflict should be framed. Both Iran and the UAE are full members, added to the BRICS in 2024.

Iran pushed for language recognising the US and Israel as having initiated the conflict with aerial strikes on February 28, while the UAE insisted on explicitly criticising Iran for attacking a fellow BRICS member. Diplomats described the positions as irreconcilable.  

Diplomats called the atmosphere in the meeting "very tense", with delegations taking "maximalist positions".

The discussions became "tedious and prolonged". 

The outcome points to an increase in difficulties for India's BRICS presidency this year, and also exposes deep cracks within the BRICS grouping, with member states having widely different goals and unwilling to compromise with each other.

TMC's Dharna ... False Alarm .... anti-climax of 'Jabar Bela' - Time to Go - :::: Amit Shah to arrive Kolkata, monitor post-counting situation to avoid re-run of 2021 violence

Union Home Minister Amit Shah is likely to arrive in Kolkata after the announcement of the election results on May 4.

He would monitor the situation personally with senior police and civil officials to avoid a 2021 rerun. The BJP is confident of winning West Bengal polls and wrest power from Trinamool Congress but says does not want the spectre of post-verdict violence as was unleashed by TMC goons in 2021.  

In fact, Minister of State for Home Nityananda Rai was deputed to Bengal to oversee the situation even before the exit poll predictions came.  

The Union Home Ministry has said that the central forces would remain in Bengal for two months after the election results to prevent post-poll violence.

In 2021, the violence was triggered by TMC goons the moment it became clear that Mamata Banerjee would return to power. The BJP workers and supporters were attacked in multiple places. In 2026, the overall situation is somewhat different while a large numbers of central forces are already in the state and they would continue for 60 days after the vote count; the BJP is exuding confidence of a comfortable win. 

On the other hand, the TMC is extremely nervous and is resorting to various peculiar tantrums including visits to strong rooms and Dharna by TMC leaders. 

No wheel chair unlike 2021 but drama queen is keeping things alive. At the end, as the TMC protests fizzled out, Mamata Banerjee directed her party workers to maintain a strict 24/7 vigil outside strongrooms, with replacements in place even for loo breaks. 

A high-voltage second phase of polling in West Bengal ended with high-voltage drama on Thursday night, with Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee marching down to an EVM holding centre over allegations of vote manipulation. 

However, by the end of it, the late-night drama over alleged EVM tampering at a Kolkata strongroom ultimately turned out to be a false alarm.  

The controversy was triggered by a Trinamool Congress tweet alleging suspicious movement inside Khudiram Anushilan Kendra in central Kolkata, where EVMs from all seven North Kolkata Assembly seats are stored.

By the time the video surfaced at around 8:30 pm, TMC candidates Sashi Panja and Kunal Ghosh were already at the site, staging a sit-in outside Netaji Indoor Stadium, barely 100 metres away.  

These followed another video message by Mamata Banerjee herself trying to keep the morale of the party workers high. Reportedly in some areas, the TMC faced shortage of counting agencts. Mamata's message made big claims that her party will win 226 seats. 

The Exit Polls outcomes from multiple agencies and the confidence shown by BJP leaders especially Suvendu Adhikari have forced Mamata to come out with such a video message. While she made big claims about the poll outcome; her actions and the manner she spoke betrayed an unprecedented nervousness.  

Kunal Ghosh and Sashi Panja at Dharna on April 30 

Around the same time, State Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Agarwal clarified that Mamata Banerjee, not being a candidate or authorised agent for North Kolkata seats, could not enter the facility where the allegations had surfaced.

Back outside Netaji Indoor Stadium, tensions persisted, with BJP candidates Tapas Roy and Santosh Kumar Pathak objecting to the gathering of TMC leaders and supporters near the site.

After the video of the alleged suspicious movement was tweeted by the TMC, party candidate Kunal Ghosh said their candidates had been present at the strongroom till 3:30 pm. He claimed they were asked to leave, after which it was reopened around 4 pm.

Ghosh said he called party workers at the site to check what was happening and was told they had already left. “Then Shashi and I rushed to the strongroom, but we were not being allowed to enter,” Ghosh told the media.

On the other hand, Agarwal, in his midnight presser, rejected Ghosh’s claims, saying it was a clear case of “miscommunication” and that candidates of the concerned Assembly constituencies had already been informed via email about the postal ballot process way in advance.

However, the protest soon fizzled out in the North Kolkata constituency after State CEO Manoj Kumar Agarwal’s midnight press conference, following which Mamata Banerjee also came out of the strongroom in the South Kolkata constituency, where she had been staying.  

A BJP message said: "A minister in the Mamata Banerjee government, and a chit fund scam-accused member of the TMC, who came to power on stolen mandates, are protesting outside the strong room where EVMs are kept, without any valid reason."

Here are the facts:

👉 All strong rooms containing polled EVMs are safely secured and sealed.

👉 There is another strong room on the same premises for postal ballots, where the EC has kept AC-wise polled ballots submitted by different polling personnel and Electronically Transmitted Postal Ballot System (ETBPS).

👉 The EC had notified all Observers and ROs, and requested ROs to inform candidates and their agents about this. 👉 ROs informed political parties via email (image attached). 👉 In the video, segregation of ballots was taking place in the corridor of the strong room premises from 4pm.

👉 The main strong rooms are safely secured and locked.

👉 The same was duly shown to Mrs. Panja and Mr. Kunal Ghosh.

"The truth is that people have voted for change and Mamata Banerjee is merely building an excuse for her impending defeat on 4th May," the West Bengal BJP said in a Twitter (X) message.  

Time to Go .... 'Jabar Bela' . 

ends 

If Bengal voters could vote against Tolabaj and Syndicate Raj; why can't Nagas vote against Extortion and those associated ? :::: Centre wants to end North East insurgency by 2029 !! Bhal asey na !!

Few questions must be pondered about in the beginning. Who are more politically sensitive and sound - Nagas or Bengalis ? Who are more politically courageous and decisive - Bengalis or Nagas ? 

The best way to handle these questions will be to leave them to be explored, answered and analysed to each individual reader of this blog piece.  The politics in both the states are different. But all politics have a unifying factor - that is the Struggle for Power Politics in the corridors of power. There was another common denominator. 

It's the Fed Up angle. 

In Bangla we say - 'anek hoechhey'. It's enough. Nagamese will be enchantingly romantic "hoise ho".  A group of Naga youths have floated a fledgling organisation called Fed Up. This has provoked may quarters in Nagaland and as expected; this has generated enough curiosity factor in New Delhi. 

PM Modi's benevolent gesture to an elderly man did not yield expected results : 2015

Talking about West Bengal, M J Akbar, former editor and ex-Minister in the Modi Govt, said in interview: 

"No body gets Fed Up fast....nobody gets fed up of any relationship fast including the political relationship". 

In that case, for Nagas too, the 'hoisey ho' element is there. 

Akbar explains further -

"The cumulative effect of experiences certainly leads to critical mass... Accumulation of small things. If I have to chose a central reason why there is a great dissatisfaction, it would be corruption. 

"And it will be corruption not at the level of taking money from the rich. It will be corruption for taking money from the poor", Akbar said.

 

 

Bengali women voters sealed the fate

Like in West Bengal or in Nagaland and elsewhere ; corruption has no religion or creed. If Hindus were victims in Mamata's Bengal. Muslims were no exception to the corruption menace. The same logic applies to people in Nagaland also. 

Men, women, Nagas and non-Nagas have been victims of corruption and direct and indirect victims of  Extortion. Only thing that matters is - if people are really disgusted they must show their disapproval on the polling day. But one notable thing about electoral malpractice in Nagaland is that the voters are 'honest' about one thing. 

On the D Day - they return the favour to the richest politician. Obviously, the Bolero club thrives. So, 'as you sow; so shall you reap' works. 

These theories worked in Bengal also. But there was an Amit Shah in action and his party 'with a difference'. The same saffron outfit outright has a different notion about life and election as a sport in Nagaland. One can credit it to a plain manu called Ram Madhav for the 2018 disservice of a very long term he did to Naga people. 

In the 1990s. Sushilkumar Shinde did play his part. 

    

But as Netas they played their politics. Who says, politics is not harmful ? 

But the answer does not lie in lamenting over the spilled milk. One has to get the act together with or without Amit Shah and then work out the salvation route. In democracy, the best route is election. 

In 2011, the then Bengal chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya had lost. In 2026, the voters of Bhabanipur have made life miserable for the Bengal 'tigress'. 

She was humbled on wheel chair (drama) in Nandigram in 2021. 

One can easily ask-- who will be Amit Shah and perhaps more importantly who will be Suvendu Adhikari in Nagaland? 

Had my very dear and 'most favourite Indian chief minister' contested from Dimapur - 1; I would have offered myself to take on him. I cannot contest in Northern Angami - 2. until the Constitution is changed. 

And as they - Flag and Constitution are 'sacred'. 

Of course, my favourite chief minister will certainly provide me one full day Bolero ride from Dimapur railway station !!  

Jokes apart. 

The moot point here is such leaders can emerge easily from the society itself. 

Trump has a favorite Field Marshal; I have a favorite CM 

As it is the Modi Govt is on move. 

In closed-door meetings, top government officials have already said that insurgency and drug smuggling trade in the North East should end. The 2029 deadline has been mentioned a few times. 

Between us, the calendar year 2028 comes before 2029. Neiphiu Rio and his 59 Club also know this. 

Many mine-protected vehicles, along with bulletproof cars that forces have in the former Naxal-hit states, will come to the North East. ..... 

Those who do not believe, ask Mamata supporters how do armoured vehicles look.  

Well, Sa Re Ga Ma ....  time for some people to sing !!

"Sa Re Ga Ma" represents the first four of the seven essential notes (swaras) in Indian classical music. 

'Sa Re Ga Ma Pa' is also an Indian Hindi-language reality singing television show. 

It started airing on Zee TV in 1995 and is the oldest running game show in India. 

I need not write more. 

Modi asey - Hobo toh !! 

ends 

Myanmar ex-leader Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest, says military ::: A photo released by military was "meaningless" as it was taken in 2022 !!

A statement by military leader Min Aung Hlaing, who led the coup, said he had "commuted her remaining sentence to be served at the designated residence".

2012, New Delhi : Syu Kyi plating a sapling in Parliament House complex with Speaker Meira Kumar

Aung San Suu Kyi came to power in 2015 after Myanmar's then rulers introduced democratic reforms. Before that, she spent decades of military rule as a pro-democracy activist, and was previously held for more than 15 years under house arrest.

State media broadcast a picture of her sitting with two uniformed personnel.
Her son Kim Aris said he was sceptical about the announcement and that he did not even have proof that she was alive. 

He said the picture was "meaningless" as it was taken in 2022. "I hope this is true. I still haven't seen any real evidence to show that she has been moved," he told the BBC.

"So, until I'm allowed communication with her, or somebody can independently verify her condition and her whereabouts, then I won't believe anything."

Myanmar State TV broadcast a picture of the Nobel laureate in confinement : BBC 

Little has been seen - and nothing heard - from Aung San Suu Kyi since she was arrested on the day the armed forces ousted her elected government more than five years ago.

Her lawyers have not seen her for more than three years; her family has had no contact with her for more than two.

The only image of her seen before Thursday was at a court appearance in May 2021, at the start of a series of trials by the military on charges which have been widely dismissed as fabricated.

Since then, her 33-year sentence has been reduced several times.

Her sudden appearance in state media suggests the military authorities may be preparing for further changes in her status - possibly her partial or complete release.

"Those who created trouble after the polls must be arrested by tonight," says EC ::::: Confident BJP prepares to celebrate, TMC stands 'guard outside strong rooms' :::: Team Nautanki stages Dharna ::: Operation 'blame the angaan' .... because Team Aapa can't DANCE on May 4

In the backdrop of reports of post-poll violence following the second phase of voting in West Bengal, Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Agarwal on Thursday directed officials to adopt a "zero tolerance" approach and ensure immediate action against those involved.

TMC's team Nautanki ... in action 

Dharna !!   

On TMC leaders Shashi Panja and Kunal Ghosh's now-called off dharna in front of strong room, BJP candidate from Shyampukur, 

Purnima Chakraborty says, "The fear of defeat is bothering them. People of Bengal and Shyampukur have given their mandate. That is the bothering the TMC candidate from Shyampukur and she came and sat on a dharna here. 

"All their life they did illegal things. Even today, they sat on a dharna in an unlawful manner. They tried to spread rumour. But there is CCTV footage and everything else. Such things should not be done. You bring in TMC goons and make them sloganeer and launch verbal abuse. This is TMC culture. 

But I would like to say one thing that today you sat on a dharna, after 4th May people will make you sit on footpath. Aapka khela khatam."

Inside the BJP camp, preparations for a potential victory are already underway, albeit discreetly. 

A party insider said arrangements had been made for celebrations, including stockpiling crackers and coloured powder.

 “If we secure the mandate, the entire area will be filled with celebrations, However, there are strict instructions of not celebrating or planning before the results are out. Our celebration will begin once the trends are clear,” the insider said.

CEO Agarwal issued the directions during a virtual meeting with senior administrative officials, including district magistrates and superintendents of police, while reviewing the law and order situation.

"Those who created trouble after the polls must be arrested by tonight," Agarwal said, according to sources.

CEO West Bengal conducted a virtual meeting in presence of Spl Observer, CS, Home Secretary, DGP, CP, IG CRPF all observers with all DEOs, CPs, SPs regarding Counting Day readiness and post-poll security deployment across all districts.

Reports of political clashes emerged from several parts of Bengal, hours after the conclusion of the second phase of polling on Wednesday evening, prompting the commission to step up surveillance.

Sources said the CEO stressed that the administration must remain equally vigilant in the post-poll period, as it did during the polling process, and take immediate action in case of any unrest.

While state BJP chief Samik Bhattacharya spent the day speaking to candidates, TMC leaders Shashi Panja and Kunal Ghosh stage dharna alleging attempts to access EVMs.

West Bengal’s political landscape remained sharply polarised on Thursday, as contrasting scenes unfolded at party offices following the conclusion of the second phase of polling in the 2026 Assembly elections.

While BJP workers celebrated buoyed by favourable exit polls, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) struck a note of caution, mobilising cadres to guard counting centres and strongrooms amid allegations of irregularities.

At the BJP’s state headquarters in Salt Lake, the mood was unmistakably upbeat. The office bustled with activity as party workers gathered in anticipation of what they believe will be a decisive victory on May 4.

Despite the physically demanding campaign, visitors continued to stream into the headquarters through the day, carrying flower bouquets and boxes of sweets. The festive atmosphere was further fuelled by the high voter turnout. The first phase of polling on April 23 had recorded over 92% participation, and party leaders credited this as a sign of public support.

“The enthusiasm among workers reflects the people’s mandate,” said a BJP functionary at the headquarters, as preparations quietly began for a possible victory celebration.

However, in stark contrast, most TMC offices across the state remained either closed or operated only briefly in the evening. Party leaders said this was part of a deliberate strategy to avoid vulnerability following alleged intimidation by central forces.

A senior TMC leader from Bhabanipur claimed that party members were avoiding operating from known offices due to security concerns. 

“We are planning our strategies from undisclosed locations. Our workers will move in groups to counting centres and strongrooms with proper planning. No one will leave until the last vote is counted,” the leader said.

The heightened vigilance comes after Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee issued a direct appeal to party workers via a video message on social media, urging them to guard strongrooms and counting centres round the clock. “I will ask all our workers and candidates to guard the strongrooms and counting centres. If I can stay awake, you can too." 

TMC leaders Kunal Ghosh and Shashi Panja staged a dharna outside the Netaji Indoor Stadium, which serves as a counting centre. 

They alleged attempts to open ballot units without the presence of representatives from all parties. “Efforts are being made to access EVMs without relevant stakeholders present. This raises serious questions about transparency,” they claimed.

Meanwhile, BJP candidates have largely stayed away from the Salt Lake headquarters, choosing instead to remain in their constituencies. Party leaders said this was part of a coordinated effort to monitor strongrooms where EVMs are stored until counting day.

Outside the BJP office, the political fervour has also translated into brisk business for local vendors. Biswajit Das, a tea seller who operates a stall near the headquarters, said the election season had significantly boosted his earnings.

“In the past three months, I barely had time to rest. My daily income tripled during the campaign,” he said, adding that he plans to close his shop on counting day and return to his native village. A former CPI(M) supporter who now backs the BJP, Das expressed confidence in the party’s chances. “I believe they will form the government,” he said.

A larger number of supporters from neighbouring districts also made their way to the BJP headquarters, many arriving in advance of the results to express their optimism. 

“We expect to be here from early morning on counting day, so we are congratulating our leaders in advance as they will be busy on counting day,” said Pradipto Ghosh, who travelled from Shyamnagar.

ENDS 

"Anek Holo " ..... Frustrated 'aapa' in new role :::: Desperate to keep party workers' morale high issues video message .... dismissing Exit Polls ::::: But her remarks reveal different story ::: "media organisations were offered money and forced to push out data manufactured by BJP”

West Bengal's political latest political epitaph is there to see. The political obit has been drafted already. On May 4th; Sickular intellectuals and fish-fry Journalism gang will join the epoch making occasion and sing together .... "Jabar bela .... (Time to go)".   

The self-styled Netri-turned-poetess and painter knows 'khela shesh'. Game is Over. Now, she is desperate. Rumour industry says TMC is not getting enough counting agents as most booth level workers have taken leave with some opting for Jagannath Darshan both in Digha and Puri. And a few say 'future girl friends' old grand mom is hospitalised. 

Hence, Didi is desperate. All 'fish-fry' journalism club members are in general lamenting mode.

Mamata Banerjee on Thursday termed the exit polls as a “BJP conspiracy”, 

“They have made their last play through the press, the Godi media. Everyone knows they have a habit of using ED, CBI, Income Tax to scare everyone to do their bidding.”

She had no alternative. She issued a video message on X with the salutation. 

"We are forming the government of Mother—Land—People.

(maa, maati, manush) --- blogger adds 

Joy Bangla!" 

Generally chief ministers say 'Jai Hind' but let us forgive ... 'jabar bela...  

(Imagine, how we will we react if Omar Abdullah says 'Jai Kashmir' or Naga CM, Neiphiu Rio says 'Jai Nagaland') 

Probably she is being punished by voters for her pro-Muslim tilt. Yet even at this hour; she says - "pranam .. salaam". 

Video Link

Are we wrong then calling her 'aapa' or 'Fufu'  

(In 2021 - BJP came out with a video - "O pishi tui chole jaa. bangladesh e choley ja' )

Folded hands, she says: "We will definitely cross 226, I have complete faith in the way people have voted”. 

Mamata dismissed exit polls predicting a BJP edge in Bengal as a “Godi media” exercise.

“Let me reassure you. What they are showing on TV is from the BJP office. I myself received the information at 1:08 pm during the polling day from a press media source. 

The language is clear, the media organisations were offered money and forced to push out the data manufactured by the BJP”. 

(Whether her 'Bhai po' believes what she is claiming is for the posterity to judge)  

Much to her shock; 'Today’s Chanakya', a polling agency specialising in political and public affairs research since 1995, projected the BJP to win 192 (±11) seats with around 48 per cent vote share, against the TMC’s 100 (±11) seats with about 38 per cent vote share. 

On Wednesday, most exit polls accorded a BJP victory by a narrow margin over the ruling Trinamool Congress in the 2026 Assembly polls. 

Of course; with Narendra Modi-led BJP now seemingly set to secure an 'affirming' place in Bengal politics, the history of West Bengal is sure to shed its status quo vis-a-vis pro-Left liberal and typically anti-Hindu image.   

Exit Polls are always questioned. They have been proved wrong in the past on numerous occasions but proved right at times. But most analysts who are commenting on Bengal polity and elections are taking about 'pro-change' mood in the state. 

The huge turnout was a testimony that most voters are 'fed up' with Mamata and her government for twin reasons chiefly - Corruption and 'bhay' Fear. 

For Corruption - of course she has Congress party's legacy. But for 'fear' and the Goondamism - she inherited it from the Leftists. 

And in the last 15 years, she only strengthened the hands of the goonda elements. There have been numerous occasions when she used her power and ensured no action is taken against Park Circus rapists. For Muslim law breakers, she always wanted her cops to look the other day. 

In 2012, following the alleged gang rape of a woman in Kolkata's Park Street, Mamata Banerjee became 'heavily involved' in the case by publicly casting doubt on the incident, calling it a "fabricated" (sajano ghatona) attempt to malign her government. 

And aapa thought her Rs 1500 freebies can make people forget every crime against women

"No body gets Fed Up fast....no body gets fed up of any relationship fast including the political relationship," says M J Akbar, former editor and ex-Minister in the Modi Govt. 

"The cumulative effect of experiences certainly leads to critical mass... Accumulation of small things. If I have to chose a central reason why there is a great dissatisfaction, it would be corruption. And it will be corruption not at the level of taking money from the rich. It will be corruption for taking money from the poor", Akbar said.

ends  

Most predictable Exit Polls results come from Assam : The issue is not whether BJP will return to power; the Bigger Issue is whether Himanta will continue and for how long !!

The Bigger Issue in Assam is whether Himanta Biswa Sarma will continue in office after May 4 vote count and if so for how long !! 

It is generally presumed that a powerful section of the BJP central leadership is unhappy with the manner Himanta has conducted himself especially last few months in the run up to the elections. A powerful leader reportedly saved the day for him last year when almost dice was cast for his replacement.

Multiple surveys - as expected - have predicted a strong lead for the ruling NDA in Assam, with high voter turnout adding to expectations ahead of May 4 counting.

Axis My India forecast a sweeping 88 to 100 seats for the BJP and its allies, well above the majority mark of 64, while giving the Congress-led alliance 24 to 36 seats. 

The People’s Pulse says 68 to 72 seats for the NDA and 22 to 26 for the opposition.

The issue in Assam is hardly about Congress prospects of recovery. The grand old party had advantages even by September 2025; but it could now retain hold over socio-political developments. On the other hand, Himanta Biswa Sarma, a Congressman himself, played some of his cards pretty well. 

The BJP was successful in projecting the Congress as a Muslim and even to a large extent an infiltrator-friendly party.  

A group of Assame women Hindu devotees at Margherita

Congress just stole Defeat from jaws of victory? – ‘Assam Model’  

One may say elections in Assam, like the rest of India, hinge on the will and vigilance of the people. In 2026 too, voters once again held the ultimate power, pressed the EVM on April 9th.

But politics is more than just the conscience, in Assam often it’s a lot about narratives and perception.

Till September-October 2025, everyone thought Congress is in a striking distance to power in Assam. In more ways than one, the BJP looked on defensive and the chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma looked clueless how to handle the 10-year-old anti-incumbency.

In 2025, the mysterious death of popular singer Zubeen Garg added more pressure on the chief minister. But within weeks, the BJP leadership took corrective steps and on the other hand, the Congress indulged in numerous mistakes.  

In the ultimate two eminent Congress leaders Bhupen Borah and Pradyut Bordoloi quit Congress and also contested assembly elections on BJP tickets. Borah from Bihpuria and former MP Pradyut Bordoloi from Dispur assembly segment. 

Former CM Sarbananda Sonowal

 But what is important now is to await BJP high command's final green flag for another term as chief minister for Himanta. We do not suggest Sonowal, BJP's first CM who came to power in 2016, will be brought back. But the debate is perhaps on. 

Possible angles:

Himanta has handled politics well. But there have been unnecessary issues related to his wife's alleged influence in the corridors of power. Reportedly, even Sanghparivar fountainhead has gauged certain factors and have shared their perception with the right people. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is himself image conscious. However, Amit Shah may still back Himanta but he too would not go very far if any discreet message emerges from the PMO.

PM may not like the manner an unwarranted controversy has been kicked off over the defamation case and possible arrest of Congress leader Pawan Khera. 

In the Supreme Court, Khera's counsel Abhishekmanu Singhvi has described CM Himanta as a "constitutional cowboy". Ever since the controversy has been generated following baseless charges made against Himanta's wife;  the chief minister has treated the matter "personally" and mostly for no reason.  

Himanta has given interviews even stating that after May 4-5 after the vote count; he would even make Guwahati Police Commissioner accountable for not arresting Khera. 

All these do not speak good about a chief minister in office. PM Modi would never back any one in constitutional position behaving in such manners. 

But, a lot could possibly depend on Bengal outcome. If Mamata Banerjee's exit is final and decisive with a comfortable majority for the BJP; the high command may opt for an experiment in Assam. 

A powerful BJP government in Kolkata and as states such as Bihar and Odisha already in its kitty, the BJP central leadership try out a low-profile individual as new chief minister in Assam. 

The focus of that new chief minister will be "performance" ... no media scoring of brownie points or not to go mad after arresting a political rival.

Of course, a cabinet reshuffle is not ruled out within a month or so that the stage is set for BJP's next round of electoral fray in crucial states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Manipur ... along side Goa and Uttarakhand.

ends