China angle 'back' in North East ::: Emergence of 'NSCN-IM Eastern Flank' :::: Real challenge has begun; now "survivors" have to face their FUTURES

The day of chaos takes it toll ....  

the real challenge begins, when survivors face their future 

Money Minting: Log and Trade 

***

The story of 'emergence' of Eastern Flank out of a monolithic organisation called NSCN-IM has created ripples. New Delhi is keen to keep fingers crossed and its assets and analysts are working overtime. Everyone wants to study it from every possible angles. 

And it is so ... not without good reasons. 

The NSCN-IM for long is known as as a Monolithic body. It means something very large, 'solid and also made of a single piece' or an unified whole. It describes things that act as one massive unit and are very difficult to change or separate. The NSCN-IM was truly such an organisation. 

Kamjong region in Manipur 

Journos took liberty to call it ... "most potent outfit" and so on. The developments of July 21, 2026 when NSCN-IM-EF has been formalised and it is a big episode in itself.  

It has been learnt that in course of discussions, the NSCN-IM wanted an amount of Rs 30,000 crore was to be earmarked for the first year for the Nagaland Govt (Neiphiu Rio's all-party Govt should not read this !! ) after the agreement and thereafter it shall be increased annually by 20 percent.

Analysts in Delhi argue how could New Delhi provide so much of 'tax payers money' to a province and also grant it a separate flag and Constitution. This 'factor' is seen as a prime trigger for the Eastern Flank (NSCN-IM) to try to corner the Hebron leadership.

Notably, the Eastern Flank in its statement said - to save the nation from 'another surrender' and to rescue the Naga political movement from its present predicament, the Extraordinary Joint Emergency Meeting .... decided to establish a 'Provisional Government' until a full-fledged government is formed. 

However, there is more to it. The China-nexus of the NSCN-IM dates back to 1960s and is well known. Certain geo-strategic matters are beyond comprehension and explanation as well. 

Take a pause ! Were Chinese 'handlers' of  Naga militants too pleased when the Ceasefire was inked in 1997 ? The only  saving grace was perhaps the fact that India's Home Minister then was a CPI leader - Late Indrajit Gupta.  

Nevertheless, the talks progress. The ceasefire also meant - lot of fun, softer days and a lot of money. In 2003 when veteran S C Jamir was voted out; it was all the more 'frolic and fun'. 

Jamir had complained to L K Advani, then Home Minister, that the poll process was "hijacked" by gunmen. That year, BJP won seven seats including old timer Hokishe Sema.  

Advani chose to dismiss Jamir's complaints.  

But by 2019, R N Ravi was a key player. The Modi Sarkar 2.0 also meant business. In August, Art 370 was abrogated. The Centre was working on CAA -- to be brought in December (winter session of parliament). Oct 31st, 2019 was set as a deadline to sign a pact. The NNPG -- with no pleasure trip to Beijing - was willing. Thuingaleng Muivah had come out with two unacceptable pre-conditions - Flag and Constitution. 

The talks were stalled. 

Neakpao Konyak : One of the NNPG stalwarts 

In an interview Neakpao said in Feb 2025 --  

"NSCN-IM leader Muivah knows what he is asking will never be given ... but still...,". He also made a veiled attack on what he called "political escapism" of some Naga leaders.

Now, circa 2026 -- what's the agenda of Eastern Flank ? Take a sip of coffee or Naga 'fika cha'. -- 

The fact, according to some informed individuals -- the Eastern Flank has played a smart game.

It has positioned itself as a 'pre-ceasefire entity' at the behest of  uncles "who only speak Mandarin".

Meanwhile, the ex-and-retired Babudom in Delhi (mandarins if we may say) argue ::

"Some people were not happy with Naga groups gradually gravitating towards peace process and the semi final and the final stage".

Hence; 'small competition' is over. A decision has been made. It's more strategic than Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation.

So EF is the new "blue eyed boy" of the Dragon house.

New Delhi has to do more than just keeping fingers crossed. 

Analysts have alerted both Y Khemchand Singh and Neiphiu Rio (and also Governor Nand Kishore Yadav) -- some Naga militants may indulge in violence against Security Forces.

These will be carried out; -- not because they hate Indian forces. But importantly; they are under pressure from Himalayas to "prove a point". 

Two sincere efforts were seen. One ambush in Manipur and one IED planted near Dimapur. Target was security forces.

A few agencies however insist that outfits close to 'Status quo club' could have done the IED mischief; - just to feel the ground. 

Lt Gen Vikas Lakhera, DGAR, paying homage to the slain Assam Rifles soldier, Hav Mohammad Iqbal, who succumbed to IED blast in Chümoukedima, on July 14.

But other calculations, calculus and permutation, combination are also on.

Some believe there will be occasional group clashes too.

A will take on B to prove itself as the genuine representative of the Nagas. B will take on A and others too to "champion" the political aspiration of Nagalim. 

In the process; faceless people will be eliminated. Children and family members will pass through pressing time. And all because the talks were derailed and stalled and the final Solution pact was delayed for three decades.

Nagas have been deprived of the packages and opportunities to grow chiefly by the armies of 'facilitators' and a few metaphysical organisations. 

Blogger 

For the people .. always ?  ::::: 

Now, real pressure has been mounted on Cock-Lotus combo.

Neiphiu Rio, Y Patton and Kitovis and Hebron and friends etc etc  should realise if they do not cooperate with Govt of India; the ruthless circumstances will also not cooperate.

And hence, as R N Ravi and A K Mishra might have been stated  repeatedly -- those who are not in favour of Solution will turn irrelevant. 

It's not yet clear whether New Delhi has already spoken clearly. But we may add from our (humble) ends -- If Solution (final pact) comes with the cooperation of Delhi; the Govt of India "will deal with" Chinese friends and puppets.

The new adventurists may become non-entity. 

But if no solution .... everyone else including Metaphysical club will also become irrelevant. 

Do not believe a mere blogger ? No issues. 

Just 'revisit' what happened to Paresh Baruah after the development on the ULFA-surrender and talks front.

"As long as we are running away from fear, we do not look at it. The moment we stop and look at fear, it begins to dissolve".

ends 

Confrontation 'far from over' ::: A die-hard Anti-BJP, Kapil Sibal, by their side .... CJP accuses government of reneging on deal, warns of fresh protest

CJP accuses government of reneging on deal, warns of fresh protest

The warning marks the biggest escalation in tensions between the two-month-old outfit and the Centre since the CJP called off its 49-day agitation following the resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan.  

Every shake-hand is not "friendship"  

"If we do not receive a written copy of the commitments agreed upon on July 25 by tomorrow, we will be forced to resume our protests," CJP spokesperson Saurav Das said.  

The other side of the story ... one Dubai company sent its employees with payments etc to participate in the CJP protest 

A Naga BJP leader M Chuba Ao's article puts a few uncomfortable questions -

What's a Cockroach?

Why this creature is angry with India's rise ?

 

The CJP also alleged that police action against protesters has continued despite the July 25 agreement, under which the Centre had assured that all existing FIRs would be withdrawn, and no fresh cases would be registered. It accused the government of failing to honour its promise to immediately withdraw the cases, while continuing to arrest students and subject volunteers to "surveillance and harassment".   

The Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) on Monday (July 27) threatened to escalate its campaign into a nationwide protest, accusing the BJP-led government of violating its agreement by allowing police action against protesters to continue.

The warning, issued at a joint press conference with Rajya Sabha MP and senior advocate Kapil Sibal, threatens to escalate tensions between the two-month-old outfit and the government since the CJP called off its 49-day agitation following the resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on July 25.  

It also reiterated the agreement's promise of "maximum possible compensation" for the families of NEET paper leak-related suicide victims, and the Centre's commitment to consider its five-point examination reform charter.

                                    Guided and Misguided - youth  = Missiles 

In a tweet addressed to two Union Ministers J P Nadda and Jitendra Singh ... Ashutosh Ranka of CJP says :  

"We are observing a complete breach of the agreement regarding no police action against the protestors. Hundreds of students have been arrested in Bihar and Bengal, and hundreds are being surveilled/harrassed in Delhi and other states. 

Multiple reports are emerging in Delhi around detention of volunteers supporting protestors with logistics.

We demand that all the FIRs against the protestors be immediately withdrawn, students be released and no future FIRs be filed (in line with our agreement) by Delhi police / Central investigative agencies / Police in BJP-allied states, 

FAILING WHICH WE WILL BE FORCED TO SIT ON PROTEST AGAIN.

"We also demand that the written agreement around legal cases be shared with us by tomorrow, the aligned timelines with the Government of India."  

M Chuba Ao, BJP national vice president, says:

"The people, some hundreds of protesters and political parties are trying to manufacture unrest or anarchy in the country. This anarchy -as a plot has not happened for the first time. The BJP was nowhere in scene when anti-Mandal Commission protest had happened. 

Students even indulged in self-immolation but V P Singh or his Home Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed did not resign.

In PM Modi’s case; he always handles things taking every matter in perspective. When he says ‘India first’; he actually means people  first." 

M Chuba Ao 

BJP Kerala spokesman 

Col. S Dinny (Retd) tweeted:

"23 Malyalee workers employed in Abrico Fright Company Dubai were sponsored by its owner Shaji Nilambur to join the student protests in Jantar Mantar. 

Flight tickets, food, accommodation... all expenses taken care of by the 'sponsor'. 

They were told to continue till the protests lasts. What do migrant workers in Dubai have to do with students protesting for NEET in India? 

Why this sponsored participation?" 

ends 

"... the leak occurred while question papers were in transit after printing" :::::: Repeat NEET exam was successful, ".. that means system worked" .... "We need teachers to set question papers whom we can trust", says IIT Madras Director and Member of the task force Veezhinathan Kamakoti

IIT Madras Director and Member of the task force constituted for NTA examination reforms, Veezhinathan Kamakoti says, 

"The NEET examination was conducted again without any major issues...That shows the system has worked...The fundamental challenge we face right now is trust. 

"We need teachers whom we can trust, people who will set the question paper, maintain complete confidentiality, and faithfully discharge their responsibility without revealing its contents. 

This is the single biggest challenge we face".  

July 2026::: A Nihang performs Gatkha as protestors celebrate at Jantar Mantar 

Veezhinathan Kamakoti also says, 

"The next examination season begins in December for our Class 12 students. There are also other examinations, such as the UPSC and other examinations. Therefore, we have to review all these reforms and bring them up. I am also confident that Parliament will enact laws to address it...".

He further stated ::: 

"...The overall objective, as articulated by the Prime Minister in his message, is to conduct examinations that are transparent, robust, leak-proof, and technology-driven...

In my opinion, the biggest challenge is how we build and sustain trust among question paper setters..."

"As a committee, we are yet to meet. The announcement came only yesterday night. The overall objective, as articulated by the Prime Minister in his message, is to conduct examinations that are transparent, robust, leak-proof, and technology-driven. 

These four aspects are essential. We have been conducting public examinations for many years. However, what has changed is the scale...

"If you look at NEET 2024, the leak occurred while the question papers were in transit after printing. They had been packed into boxes and sent to a distribution centre. 

He also said:

"From there, they were transported to the examination centres. Somewhere during that process, the leak occurred. The investigating agency made it very clear that the incident was contained and affected only around 40 to 50 students. 

They also stated that they were confident all those involved had been arrested. The matter was subsequently challenged before the Supreme Court."

Veezhinathan Kamakoti

"It was heard over three days before the Chief Justice, Justice D.Y. Chandrachud. 

After extensive hearings, the Court concluded that there was no need for a re-examination because the integrity of the examination as a whole had not been compromised. 

The Court observed that those involved in the leak, as well as its beneficiaries, had already been taken into custody. Following this, the Ministry of Education constituted a committee under the chairmanship of Dr Radhakrishnan, comprising several eminent members." 

"The committee examined what had happened in NEET 2024 and came forward with around 200 recommendations, which were also placed in the public domain. 

The National Testing Agency (NTA) implemented many of those recommendations. 

On the May 3rd 2026 examination, there was a leak. 

The leak did not occur during the distribution process, which was the cause of the 2024 leak. 

"After the question paper left the premises of the NTA, it was printed, packed into boxes, and circulated until it reached the students at the examination venue on the day of the exam. No leak occurred during this process. 

"The suggestions of the Radhakrishnan Committee helped strengthen this aspect of the system...

As indicated by the reports from the investigating agencies, the leak originated with the question paper setter. In any examination system, two groups of people must be trustworthy. 

First, there are the question paper setters. 

They form the most critical group. 

Second, there are the invigilators at the examination centres...

In my opinion, the biggest challenge is how we build and sustain trust among question paper setters. 

On the invigilation side, we have already introduced cameras for monitoring...

However, the most important issue remains the integrity and trustworthiness of the question paper setter...

"As a committee, I believe our responsibility is to fulfil the mandate given by the Prime Minister: to create a completely transparent, robust, leak-proof, and technology-driven examination system that can function effectively at scale. 

That is what structural reform means...".

                                             writing on the wall 

ends 

"I am a street fighter, not AC-room activist," BJP leader told Jairam of Congress ::::: Dharmendra Pradhan got off the car, smiled, said "namaste" .. amid cheers and "Dharmendra Pradhan zindabad" slogans by BJP MPs

New role model of sacrifice ? -- What is happening with Dharmendra Pradhan today has happened with others in the past ... including a non-BJP leader ... - George Fernandes !! 

Has Dharmendra Pradhan joined the club of George Fernandes and Kalyan Singh ?

The saffron party lawmakers, leaders and  foot-soldiers how to handle these challenges and project a 'leader' of the moment. It helps ... and at times it does not!!  

There were scenes of jubilation as MPs closed in around him, with one MP even putting a traditional cap on the ex-Minister's head and a shawl across his shoulders, throwing their weight behind the leader from Odisha.

When Dharmendra Pradhan arrived at the Parliament House on Monday after resigning as Education Minister over the weekend, a large crowd of BJP and NDA MPs turned out to welcome him.

The MP from Odisha got off the car, smiled, folded his hands in namaste and began making his way amid cheers and "Dharmendra Pradhan zindabad" slogans by the ruling MPs.  One MP remarked that this was the first time a Minister had resigned without facing any allegations.

The Cockroach Janta Party had demanded Pradhan's resignation over the NEET paper leak.

"It happens," Congress MP Jairam Ramesh told Pradhan, who resigned on Saturday as Education Minister.

"Nothing happened," the MP shot back, adding, "I am a street fighter, not an AC-room activist."

Speculation suggests that the BJP MP might be assigned a role within the party organisation or tasked with leading the BJP's campaign for the upcoming assembly elections in five states.  

"I am pained to see the events of the past 10 days. This is not a matter of personal prestige for me," Pradhan said in a statement posted on X on Saturday.

"India's youth power is the real strength of this nation. My resolve is that we will not let the country's youth get trapped in a vicious cycle of confusion," he added.

His supporters believe he has "sacrificed" his post in the national interest, a move expected to further strengthen his image among the public and in his parliamentary constituency, Sambalpur.  

After the BJP suffered a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the party failed to secure a majority on its own, Pradhan contributed significantly to the party's win in Haryana. 

Prior to this, he had played a key role in the party's success as an in-charge in several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Karnataka.

Soon after he resigned as Minister, Home Minister Amit Shah visited his residence, and top BJP leaders, including party chief Nitin Nabin and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, have endorsed the reforms Dharmendra Pradhan implemented in the education sector.  

BJP President Nitin Nabin commended Dharmendra Pradhan's decision to resign as  Education Minister, calling it a display of high integrity.    

A hardcore anti-Congress leader, George Fernandes (of JD-U) had resigned as Defence Minister in March 2001 following the Tehelka sting operation ("Operation West End").

George stated he stepped down to protect the morale of the armed forces and PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee re-inducted him into the cabinet after 9/11 rocked the US and the rest of the world in Sept 2021. 

In fact, in March 2021, after George resigned; he was even given an opportunity to make a video-telecast message over Doordarshan. The Congress took exception to it and Pranab Mukherjee had even demanded that Congress president Sonia Gandhi should also be given time on DD because George spoke as a former Minister. 

4 Legends :::::  George, R K Hegde, Advani and Vajpayee 

In later years, the United Progressive Alliance government under Manmohan Singh rejected the report of the Phukan Commission, which probed the Tehelka expose into fictitious defence deals.

The commission had given a clean chit to the then defence minister George Fernandes although it has found lapses in all but two of the 15 defence deals it probed in the wake of an expose by Tehelka web portal four years ago.

The 47-page report, tabled in both the Houses of Parliament by Congress-led UPA government had cleared Fernandes by stating that he had either no role to play or that he had committed no illegality or irregularity in 12 of the deals. 

The Tehelka expose had broke out on March 13-14, 2001 and the then government had appointed Venkataswami Commission on March 24 to probe it and to present its findings within four months.

The Commission was given an extension up to October 3, 2004. However, Justice Venkataswami resigned on November 25, 2002. Following which Justice Phukan was appointed Chairman of the Commission on January 2, 2003. 

In fact, after George's resignation; NDA organised rallies in various parts of India and those used to be addressed among others by PM Vajpayee and George himself.  

George Fernandes later befriended Narendra Modi, then then Gujarat chief minister in 2002, and during post-Godhra mayhem used to frequently visit the state and also participated in the first 'peace march' participated by Modi in between the riots.  

Kalyan Singh 

Kalyan Singh was another prominent BJP leader who resigned on Dec 6, 1992 hours after Babri masjid demolition. 

Kalyan Singh started calling him Ram Bhakt and used to appear before Supreme Court and Liberhan Commission with huge crowd of supporters behind him. The commission had concluded that the Babri structure destruction was a planned event facilitated by him and his administration. 

“Prior to the 6th of December, the CM (Kalyan Singh) changed the local officers of the administration holding key posts, including the commissioner, IG, DGP, DM, SP, DIG, and others, by liberally exercising the power of transfers,” the Commission had said. 

Kalyan Singh was later appointed Governor of Rajasthan by the Modi government. 

ends 

ends 

Job, Training, Excellence :::: ".... a wider mission of transforming unemployed youth of Manipur into trained security professionals" .... :: Courtesy Rajkumar Babloo Singh of Imphal

Homeland Security is an Imphal-based private organisation.

It works in coordination with multiple private and government-run organisations including the likes of Assam Rifles and try to provide provide opportunities for youngsters. And passouts from the institute have got employment outside the state in multiple organisations including hotels in places like Chennai and elsewhere. 

"We have a wider mission of transforming unemployed youth of Manipur especially into trained, disciplined and employment-ready security professionals," says the company director Rajkumar Babloo Singh. In course of journalistic adventures and misadventures; we keep meeting individuals. 

A product of Homeland Security 

I found him a dreamer.. somewhat 'mad'. The kind of passionate moments I too go through in life .. I thought we could share same mental wavelength. Babloo had other ideas - "Let us share good coffee, come tomorrow to our office".  Struggling for good stories and at times from 'good and simpler people' in violence-hit Manipur.. neither Netas, nor underground or patriotic security personnel - I visited his complex. 

Some of his staff including young girls were inside a classroom. 

One of them came out -  and remarked: "Our organisation works to create a dignified livelihood opportunities for young people from Manipur, including those from economically weaker and vulnerable sections of society."  

It all appeared well tutored sentence. Skepticism is our art in journalism and the disease stays in our characters. 

But often - we are proved wrong by those who slog it out on ground.  

                                       Actor Randeep Hooda visited the Homeland Security complex  

Any visitor is told that "The Homeland Security as a firm believes that professional security services are not limited to protecting institutions and individuals. 

The sector can also become a meaningful platform for youth development, character building, employment generation and social transformation." In this context, I was told Hooda’s visit inspired the Homeland Security team and the young professionals associated with the organisation. 

Babloo : A dreamer in action 

"His journey, recognised for discipline, commitment and excellence, reflected many of the values that Homeland Security seeks to develop among its trainees and personnel. 

The organisation remains committed to building a generation of responsible and professionally trained security personnel who can contribute positively to their families, workplaces and society," Babloo said. 

Blogger with Instructors 

Babloo and Hooda 

Earlier this month in a boost to employment generation in conflict-hit Manipur, 65 young men and women, including one Internally Displaced Person (IDP) and several youths from remote hill districts such as Kamjong, received appointment letters after completing a professional security training programme conducted by Homeland Security.

The eighth batch certificate and appointment letter distribution ceremony was held at North AOC, Sanjeevani Complex, Imphal, under the Homeland Academy of Tactical Security and Fire Safety, an initiative of Inspector General Assam Rifles (South).  

With the latest batch, Homeland Security has now trained and placed more than 700 youths from Manipur, marking a significant milestone in its employment-linked skill development initiative.  

Manipur like many other northeastern states has no shortage of hardworking youth. 

Many are willing to work, learn and improve. 

What is often missing is a structured pathway that connects them to training, confidence and employment. 

Homeland Security's model offers a practical response. It gives unemployed youth a disciplined environment where they can prepare for professional life. 

Through routine, training and placement, it moves them from hesitation to confidence and uncertainty to income and more importantly to self respect. 

ends 

In 2014 and so ... "world was excited about India and its untapped potentials" .... :::: In 2026 ... 2000 people with criminal background came to Jantar Mantar ... "Because New India's rise under Modi invited resistance"

 It might not have been masterstroke; but the government showed restrains. It agreed to give another cheek for another blow and prepare ground for more significant battles.  

PM Narendra Modi and his Govt are committed to --  'One Nation, One Election' ... a comprehensive FCRA law to check illegitimate foreign funding often allegedly being used for conversion and other sinister works. 

There is another way to look at it too. The government’s strategies and police approach around June 29 perhaps only fuelled the anguish and the 'movement' for Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation further. The “cockroach” remains an ill-considered word.  But the agitation achieved something. Pradhan should have resigned long back and for this not Pradhan but the BJP leadership and Pradhan Mantri himself is responsible.  

"... the resignation has another potential. For the first time, a thought will cross the mind of other ministers that they might also someday be held accountable. They will realise that even PM Modi can, when it suits him, use them as sacrificial pawns," wrote Pratam Bhanu Mehta in 'Indian Express'.  

Hence, all ministers will need to protect themselves. But there is selective amnesia. The BJP ministers J P Nadda and Jitendra Singh - were bad negotiators. Otherwise there should have been a good bargain that Education Ministers in Punjab, Telengana and Karnataka should also resign. 

If CJP spare these state governments - their credibility will also shake and the BJP will be happy about it. This is one possible reason - the BJP is not making much noise on this.  

Of course -- Five New Bills expected during the Monsoon Session are:

Income-tax (Amendment) Bill, 2026

Supreme Court (Number of Judges) Amendment Bill, 2026

Registration of Births and Deaths (Amendment) Bill, 2026

Prevention of Insults to National Honour (Amendment) Bill, 2026: (intentional insult or disruption during the singing of Vande Mataram a punishable offence)  

** Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development (Amendment) Bill, 2026  

The 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill on women's reservation through the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies may be brought in. 

In April, the earlier version of the 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill was defeated in Parliament. 

One Constitutional Amendment Bill (130th) on automatic removal from public office of constitutional authorities, including the Prime Minister and Chief Ministers, is still under discussion by a Joint Parliamentary Committee headed by BJP MP Aparajita Sarangi. 

What are the new and old challenges for PM Modi? 

PM Modi’s image has an 'invincible' political aura. This often gets compromised and dented. It happened in July 2026 and had happened in Nov 2021 during farmers' protest too. 

Even earlier, he faced 'resistance' to normal government functioning and when steps were taken for reforms in policies. 

In 2015 - Opposition growing grew up quite significantly against a key initiative to simplify India’s highly restrictive land-acquisition laws.

The fact it, Indians have some double standards for everything. We want development. But India investors often face legal and social obstacles that keep them from getting the land they need. Nandigram and Singoor are two names in West Bengal.

Modi faced the predicament. He was painted pro–Ambani and Adani .. and pro Big Business. The tag Suit-Boot ka Sarkar meant being 'anti-poor'.

That is damaging for any Neta who has to face voters periodically. One election loss for BJP and the media and detractors jumped saying - 'count down has begun'. Amid all these, he has passed through 12 plus years and that's no joke. 

Yet the same challenges remain.

Now in 2021 with regard agri reforms Bill, PM Modi had 'miscalculated' in thinking that farmers will see market “freedoms” as opportunities. The middlemen prevailed and the protest almost went out of control when even Red Fort was under siege. There are state-related problems and often due to geographical and natural factors.  

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra have been drought-prone and electorally crucial.

Elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh will be held in 2028 just before 2029 Lok Sabha polls and Maharashtra will have it after the general elections. Team Modi is apprehensive of many factors.

A weak monsoon in 2026–27 would allow rural distress to build up. Who knows - Climate shocks could translate into electoral judgments as well.

Foreign Policy and foreign factors:  

When he won 2014 election, no one knew how Modi would act on the world stage. The answer came the moment he became Prime Minister. 

For his swearing-in ceremony, Modi invited leaders from around South Asia—including from Pakistan. In later stages; he kept on applying different dimensions and different approaches for different world powers. 

Today India matters to the US, to China, to France and also Russia, Brazil and South Africa. Many global players are actually rattled with the rise of this South Asian nation.

China has own reasons and own methods. The US under Trump could not get credit for India's Operation Sindoor and the ceasefire. The trade talks are on and India is bargaining hard.  

The 'deep state' methodologies succeeded in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. Myanmar is in chaos. Why not India - they may always feel ... and this is a permanent problem Team Modi and the foreign policy-cum-defence policy engine room will have to deal with. 

Unseasonal Political Storm : A possibility  

ends