BNP or Jamaat may not matter much ; but Bangladesh Referendum could be most decisive

 Saying yes or no is inherently difficult because in Bangladesh Referendum as so many issues are bundled together.

 The first paragraph on the ballot states: “The election-time caretaker government, the Election Commission, and other constitutional institutions will be formed in line with the process outlined in the July charter.”

It is followed by another paragraph that reads: “The next parliament will be bicameral. A 100-member upper house will be formed in proportion to the votes received by parties in the national parliamentary election. Approval from a majority of the upper house will be required to amend the constitution.”

Alongside normal parliamentary polls, on Thursday, Feb 12, Bangladesh is also going for a referendum essentially seeking people's mandate for electoral and other major political reforms.

The ballot itself briefly mentions a selection of proposals and presents them as a done deal. The government’s campaign, which is openly in favour of a “yes” vote, claims that a “yes” victory would defeat fascism and asserts that those who want reforms must vote yes, without clearly explaining the full process or all the measures contained in the July charter.

A "no” vote would effectively shut the door on the reform process, which has been described as a core mandate of the interim government. 

The upcoming referendum is unique in the sense that voters will not be the final stop in the process. 

Instead, if the referendum carries -- meaning the “yes” vote prevails -- it will set in motion a sequence of further steps. 

In this referendum, voters will be asked whether they approve the July charter implementation order and a set of proposals presented as a summary of the 47 measures requiring constitutional amendment.

The implementation order outlines a series of steps, including the issuance of another order detailing the referendum, the formation of a constitutional reform council -- effectively another form of the entire parliament -- its deadline, its dissolution, and the formation of an upper chamber, among other measures. 

The ordinance outlining the referendum has already been issued and provides the Election Commission with the legal framework to hold the vote, a step deemed necessary because the prevailing constitution does not contain any provision for referendums.

Under the order, the constitutional reform council will be able to pass July charter recommendations, which in effect amend the constitution, with a simple majority of the entire council -- 151 votes in a 300-member body. The council has a deadline of 180 working days to complete all reforms. However, there is no contingency. The order makes no provision for what happens if the council fails to meet the deadline or does not address all the July charter issues.

Once the council is dissolved, its decisions will be incorporated into the constitution and published as a gazette.

 

There is no way to predict what the final language of the constitution will look like, and voters will have no control over that outcome if they vote yes, says a report in 'Daily Star'. 

Under the order, the constitutional reform council will be able to pass July charter recommendations, which in effect amend the constitution, with a simple majority of the entire council -- 151 votes in a 300-member body. 

The council has a deadline of 180 working days to complete all reforms. However, there is no contingency. The order makes no provision for what happens if the council fails to meet the deadline or does not address all the July charter issues.

Ends 

Feb 11 Myanmar border

 Myanmar Commerce Reshapes Mizoram, 

Champhai (Mizoram) 

— When I landed at the Zokhawthar trade centre on the Indo–Myanmar border in Mizoram, it happened to be the same day the NCB Director was visiting the township. The symbolism was hard to miss: while New Delhi worries about borders and security, life here moves to the rhythm of commerce.

As the saying goes, seeing is believing. By afternoon, the marketplace was alive with brisk negotiations. On the Indian side, traders argued animatedly, offering competitive prices to familiar faces—many of them daily customers from across the border.

“Omlo mo…,” a woman trader protested, refusing to lower her price further. Her customer pushed back theatrically, prompting smiles from onlookers. An Assam Rifles personnel standing nearby remarked, almost amused, that it is often impossible to distinguish between Myanmarese traders and Indian Mizos—the language, culture, and business instincts are shared.

Booming business here is not an exception; it is routine.

Local Mizo traders spoke of logistics—how energy drinks imported in bulk could be transported onward to Champhai, Aizawl, Kolasib, and even Silchar in Assam. “Business is business,” said Bruce P. Hmar tersely, unwilling to be distracted during trading hours. Over dinner later, he was more candid.

“Fencing the border is a mistake,” he argued. “The British divided us whimsically, and Delhi has inherited that legacy.” He dismissed claims of insurgency in Mizoram, stressing instead the region’s commercial potential. “We have the business acumen of Gujaratis and Marwaris. We can transform Mizoram and the Northeast.”

Across this trading ecosystem sits a quieter, more poignant story—that of Myanmar’s children studying in Indian schools.

Jacob, a shy Class VI student from Myanmar, studies in Zokhawthar. “Hindi… theamlo,” he said softly. “I know English.” His dream, if God—Lal Pa—wills it, is to become a pilot. Asked about home, his voice dropped. “My country is burning every day. I am grateful to India and my Mizo brothers and sisters. A big kalawmein.”

Zokhawthar (India) and Rihkhawdar (Myanmar), formalised as a border trade point in 1994, remain a critical—if largely informal—economic lifeline. Agricultural goods such as beans, pulses, vegetables, fruits, spices, and tobacco dominate trade. For nearly six per cent of Mizoram’s population, livelihoods are tied directly or indirectly to this exchange.

Civil conflict in Myanmar has disrupted flows, triggered refugee movements, and forced intermittent closures. Yet commerce adapts, finding ways to survive.

The larger lesson is strategic. Business-to-business interests matter. Opening borders responsibly, investing in all-weather roads near international frontiers, and recognising the Northeast as a global partnership hub—not a peripheral security zone—are overdue policy shifts.

With over 250 ethnic communities, the Northeast has already demonstrated its potential. The 2023 G20-related business meet in Nagaland, attended by delegates from 27 countries, was proof.

At Zokhawthar, the border is not just a line—it is a marketplace, a classroom, and a reminder that integration, not isolation, is how regions truly prosper.

Need for Construction of All-weather roads in all villages located in close proximity to international borders.

With more than 250 ethnic tribes domiciled, the north-eastern states have now become the centre for investment and partnering with other global business communities and a platform for various collaborations.

*** When asked to comment further; analysts said ----- In 2023 when Nagaland hosted business meet related to G20 Summit; 

delegates from 27 countries including delegates from Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Canada, China, Costa Rica, Cote D’Ivoire, Cuba, Estonia, Germany, Iceland, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy. Jamaica, Japan, Nepal made things a Success.

Zokhawthar in Mizoram (India) and Rihkhawdar (Myanmar) form a crucial, yet often informal, border trade point established in 1994, located 510 km from the international border. Key exports include agriculture items (soybeans, red kidney beans), while the trade is deeply linked to regional livelihood and cultural ties. 

Key Aspects of Zokhawthar-Rih Border Trade

Location & Significance: Situated in Mizoram, Zokhawthar acts as a key gateway to Myanmar (Rihkhawdar) and Rih Dil lake, facilitating, for instance, about 6% of Mizoram's population's livelihoods.

Trade Mechanism: Originally authorized under a 1994 agreement, trade includes formal, barter, and, primarily, informal, non-monetized exchanges.

Key Commodities: Trade focuses on agricultural products such as beans, pulses, vegetables, fruits, spices, and tobacco.

ends 

"No copies of the book – in print or digital form – have been published" :::: TURMOIL in Indian Parliament linked to Toolkits for Regime change ??

 

If you ask for rain, of course you will get a soothing atmosphere -- but one has to prepare for mud as well.

This theory applies to Indian polity as much to two principal political parties  the Congress and the BJP. 

Indian politics is in turmoil. It's normal and a welcome development in a democracy. But the nature of geo politics has changed. Toolkits to work for regime change is a normal thing.

Hence whatever happening around is to be taken with a pinch of salt. 

In Parliament the opposition has served a notice for a No Trust motion against Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. For his part the Speaker has decided not to attend House proceedings till the controversy around the episode is resolved. 

Although there is no such compulsion under the rules, Om Birla has chosen not to attend the House. Now, there is a possibility that the motion to remove the Speaker may be taken up for discussion on the very first day of the second part of the Budget Session, that id on March 9.

Under Article 96(1) of the Constitution, a Speaker cannot preside over any sitting, even if present, when a resolution for his or her removal is under consideration.

Om Birla has come under fire from Opposition leaders for not allowing Leader of Opposition (LoP) Rahul Gandhi to cite excerpts from former Indian Army Chief General MM Naravane’s unpublished book during his reply to the Motion of Thanks on the President’s Address.

“Eight opposition MPs were arbitrarily suspended; they are being penalised merely for exercising democratic rights: Opposition in notice against Speaker,” a communique from opposition said.

Taking to X, Congress MP Manickam Tagore wrote, "The Opposition has placed its faith in constitutional propriety. While holding the Hon’ble Speaker in personal regard, we are pained and anguished by the consistent denial of opportunities to Opposition MPs to raise issues of public importance. After many years, a no-confidence notice against the Speaker has been moved -- an extraordinary step born out of extraordinary circumstances." The issue primarily relates to Rahul's charges against the Indian government based on the content of a book -- which officially has not been published.

The problem revolves around three pillars - Rahul Gandhi, India's defence preparedness, the controversial ex army chief and also PM Narendra Modi as the fourth pillar.

The Congress leader does not realize that mere running DOES NOT make a road shorter. 

Ever since the Modi Govt came to power -- Rahul and Congress have been trying to topple the BJP led regime or make their life difficult by playing unorthodox gamss. 

In 2015, it was Rohit Vemula episode and also the Tukde Tukde gang. Next we had farmers agitation and a few other issues. The Vote chori was pucked up as a major issue but all these did not make Modi's life difficult in real sense.

On the other hand -- Rahul has realised that he cannot defeat Modi by playing normal game of politics.

This is why everytime he wants to corner Modi -- he goes overboard. Remember  'Chowkidar Chor Hae' and how it had boomeranged.

This time too ..... right from the beginning -- Rahul has displayed a sense of entitle. These machinations will not help Rahul or Congress to garner votes. Yet in his T shirt and one liners like Prime Minister and Defence Minister are scared -- Rahul actually only shows a sense of entitlement.

While the Congress party and leaders slavishly endorse his style and unsubstantiated statements; the MODI GOVT handles him with kid gloves. 

The government has repeatedly asserted that General Naravane’s memoir is unpublished and cannot be quoted in the House.

Breaking his silence on the row over his unpublished memoir ‘Four Stars of Destiny’, former Army chief General M M Naravane (retired) has shared a post by publishing house Penguin Random House India in which it said “no copies of the book – in print or digital form – have been published, distributed, sold or otherwise made available to the public”.

Sharing the publisher’s statement, General Naravane said: “This is the status of the book.”

His post came hours after Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi waved a purported copy of the book, told reporters: “Here is a tweet (post on X) from Mr Naravane ji. It’s a tweet that says: ‘Hello friends. My book is available now. Just follow the link. Happy reading. Jai Hind!’ This is a tweet that Mr Naravane has made. You can look into the tweet.”

“So, the point I am making is that either Mr Naravane is lying… and I believe the Army chief, okay? I don’t think he will lie… or Penguin is lying. Somebody needs to clarify… both cannot be telling the truth,” he said.

In its statement Monday, Penguin Random House India said, “In light of recent public discourse and media reporting, Penguin Random House India would like to clarify that we hold the sole publishing rights for the book Four Stars of Destiny, a memoir by General Manoj Mukund Naravane, former Chief of the Indian Army.”

“We wish to make it clear that the book has not gone into publication. No copies of the book – in print or digital form – have been published, distributed, sold, or otherwise made available to the public by Penguin Random House India,” it said.

The controversy related to the book is being probed by Delhi police also.

“Any copies of the book currently in circulation, in whole or in part, whether in print, digital, PDF, or any other format, online or offline, on any platform, constitutes an infringement of PRHI’s copyright and must immediately be ceased,” it said, adding that it “shall be exercising remedies available in law against the illegal and unauthorised dissemination of the book”.

Ends

"Significant political goodwill" -- How 'RSS model' is helping Jamaat's political rise

"I have seen in the news that members of these covert forces were caught by law enforcement while trying to make fake [ballot] seals. Therefore, we must remain alert to ensure that no one can enter with fake seals in their pockets," BNP chief Tarique Rehman said.

“You must stay alert. In the area, in the neighborhoods, you must keep an eye on things, so that these covert forces cannot go and confuse the people. Will you be able to do that?" Tarique said in an election meeting in Dhaka.

Electioneering has picked up in Bangladesh and hence among many other issues, the rise of Jamaat is also being debated. 

Perhaps the most striking, and largely unforeseen, political developments in Bangladesh has been the unprecendented surge in support for Jamaat-e-Islami since Aug 2024.

The Islamist party’s rise has been so dramatic that, although recent polling suggests the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is likely to secure a majority in the February 12 election, some commentators argue that the Jamaat-led alliance could still emerge victorious. 

Which model of politics has worked so well for them ? The answer can be BJP in India and the RSS Model. How ? 

Jamaat’s response reinforced its image as a disciplined organisation capable of translating its resources into tangible support. 

From 2024; the Jamaat  is pushing 

--- welfare politics— Its getting into charitable works and becoming more  visible into mutiple sectors. They are displaying themselves as members of an organised and disciplined body. Ghis has made a mark with middle class because so far all parties of Bangladesh basically were practicing hooliganism.

Are we smelling -- the party with a difference tag associated with the BJP ?  

Another cornerstone of Jamaat’s strategy has been around building "reputation" for probity and claimed to be corruption free nation.

On this both Awami League and BNP have reputation of being highly involved in corruption cases.

 When the Hasina government fell and the manner she was ousted; many Bangladeshis presumed this would mark the end of systematic extortion  and syndicate-run business and the general business of politics. 

Source say since 2024, many of the extortion networks previously controlled by Awami League cadres were quickly taken over by BNP-aligned groups. 

Again Jamaat is not seen involved in this and this is also a case of 'party with a difference'. 

Jamaat is seen as an outfit which collided with Pakistanis and allegedly opposed the independence of the new nation in 1971. But for a growing and increasingly influential younger demographic, 1971 feels distant, abstract, and less relevant to their immediate socio economic concerns.

However, Jamaat has not entirely escaped its past. It is still, at times, forced to defend its position regarding 1971. This is what happens with BJP and RSS too. 

Following the fall of Awami League, hundreds of families were grieving lost relatives, and thousands more were caring for those seriously injured. 

Jamaat mobilised systematically to identify these families and, where possible, provide direct assistance—reportedly giving at least Tk 100,000 to each bereaved household and financial support to many of the injured, often through hospital visits. 

The two other parties do not have such positive image.

For a large portion of the electorate, Jamaat’s role during the Liberation War is no longer politically important.

Several factors may help explain this shift. First, the senior Jamaat figures accused of involvement in 1971-era crimes were convicted and executed during Awami League’s time in office.

 

The collapse of Awami League has significantly weakened the potency of its long-standing political narratives, one of which centred on repeatedly invoking Jamaat’s alleged war-crimes legacy. 

There were no widespread reports of Jamaat-run extortion rackets or organised corruption at the grassroots. 

This distinction, in their mind, reflects a deeper structural difference.

 Many local BNP activists apparently support the party in the expectation that access to power will bring financial opportunity. 

While individual BNP politicians did offer aid in some cases, their efforts were neither as extensive nor as coordinated. 

Organisational discipline

Jamaat has benefited from its organisational strength. 

Almost immediately after the fall of Awami League, it began preparing in earnest for elections.

Jamaat has invested heavily in face-to-face voter engagement, including extensive door-to-door outreach in rural areas—an approach that RSS also does.

Jamaat as the party of ‘change’

Following the fall of Awami League, there was a widespread public desire for change—change from autocracy, entrenched corruption, and what many described as the country’s “tired old politics.” In a political contest between BNP and Jamaat, it is Jamaat that, for some voters, is likely to more convincingly embody that sense of renewal.

Jamaat is often viewed as an outsider party, not deeply embedded in the patronage and corruption networks.

Ends 

Awami League leaders in exile welcome RSS chief ststement on Hindu unity

 RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has said on Sunday that Hindus in India and everywhereelse would extend all possible support “within our limitations”.

He called upon Hindus in Bangladesh to unite and “fight”, assuring them of support from Hindus in India and across the world.

The RSS chief statement has been welcomed by the Awami League leaders in exile.

 Former Awami League leader Pankaj Nath said such statements give Hindus in Bangladesh the much needed morale booster and a big message that Hindus outght to remain united.

RSS chief urged the Centre to adopt a tougher stance against “infiltrators”, suggesting controversially that “their language gives them away”.

Asked about the Bangladesh situation and its implications for India’s security, Bhagwat claimed that the Hindus in Bangladesh had this time decided not to flee in the face of adversity.

“There are still around 1.25 crore Hindus in Bangladesh. If they unite, they can use the political system there for their own benefit and security, but they have to come together,” Bhagwat said, answering audience questions after delivering a lecture in Mumbai on the Sangh’s completion of 100 years.

Bhagwat said: “They have decided they will stay there and fight. If they are going to fight, unity will be essential. The sooner they unite, the better.”

Awami League leader Pankaj Nath speaking from his hideout said -- 

"RSS  chief Mr Bhagwat has spoken like the guardian of Hindus. And this is what I like about the statement at this criyical juncture".

To a question Nath said --- "Feb 12 elections will be important but as we the Awami League is not in this year's polls... this means its not inclusive."

He also said voters turnout will be less because Awami League supporters may stay away from voting". 

Sairang–Silchar (Assam) train service inaugursted

  Union Minister for Railways Ashwini Vaishnaw on Monday virtually inaugurated the Sairang–Silchar (Assam) train service from Guwahati, along with the Blended Hospitality Service at Guwahati Railway Station. 

The train was formally flagged off at Sairang Railway Station by Mizoram Chief Minister Lalduhoma, accompanied by members of his council of ministers.

The Railway Minister, in his address, stated that extensive work is underway to improve connectivity in Assam and the entire Northeast, with several new projects being taken up and many long-pending projects already completed. 

He noted that over the past 11 years, nearly 1,900 kilometres of new Railway tracks have been constructed across Northeast, marking a transformational phase for rail infrastructure in the region.

Vaishnaw highlighted that the train service flagged off today between Silchar and Sairang adds a new dimension to the benefits being extended to the people of Mizoram and Assam. 

He observed that the extension of Railway connectivity to Sairang had been inaugurated a few months ago by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, followed by the introduction of new train services and that the Government has been receiving positive feedbacks from citizens regarding improved connectivity to Mizoram.

Addressing the gathering at Sairang train station, the state Chief Minister stated that under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Act East Policy has elevated Mizoram and the North Eastern region to a more prominent position in the nation’s development journey.

 He observed that areas once considered remote are now experiencing transformative connectivity, with the Sairang–Silchar rail service marking a major milestone in that progress.

Lalduhoma said the new rail link would further strengthen connectivity with Assam, expand market access for Mizoram’s agricultural produce—particularly ginger and other crops—and reinforce the State’s flagship Bana Kaih (hand-holding) scheme. 

He expressed gratitude to the Union Railway Minister for acceding to his request to operationalise the Sairang–Silchar service.

Highlighting the strategic importance of Silchar, the Chief Minister described it as not merely a neighbouring city but a vital economic gateway for Mizoram, adding that the new service would significantly contribute to the State’s economic growth.

He also recalled that Sairang Railway Station, inaugurated five months ago by the Prime Minister, has already witnessed substantial developmental activity within a short period. Commending the efforts of the Ministry of Railways—particularly the Northeast Frontier Railway (NFR), Lumding Division—he acknowledged their role in advancing rail infrastructure in the region.

The Chief Minister further stressed the need for a warehouse facility at Sairang Railway Station to support the Handholding Scheme and local entrepreneurs. He also urged the early finalisation of the rail line to Thenzawl Peace City and advocated for extending the Delhi–Silchar Rajdhani Express up to Sairang.

Following the inauguration, Lalduhoma reviewed the proposed design for upgrading Sairang Railway Station into a World Class Railway Station. 

Railway officials informed him that Rs. 97 crore has been sanctioned for the project, tenders have been issued, and the opening of tenders is expected in March. 

A press statement issued by the Railway Ministry said the Sairang–Silchar Passenger Train will significantly strengthen rail connectivity between Mizoram and Assam. The service will benefit the people of Silchar as well as Mizoram by improving access to education, healthcare, markets and administrative centres. 

It is expected to boost tourism, facilitate easier movement of goods between the two states, enable the supply of goods manufactured in Mizoram to markets in Silchar and reduce dependence on road transport, particularly in the hilly terrain.

 

Ends

Supreme Court issues show cause notice to the West Bengal DGP

 Supreme Court issues show cause notice to the West Bengal DGP, directing him to file a personal affidavit on allegations that the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls was crippled by threats, violence and intimidation, as flagged by the Election Commission of India #westbengalsir #SupremeCourt. 

Supreme Court delivers a major setback to the Mamata Banerjee govt.

No stay on SIR, full backing to the Election Commission’s authority. Form-7 objections must be considered regardless of personal presence. State’s failure to appoint senior EROs exposed, EC empowered to act against errant officials without state interference. Intimidation of citizens noted; DGP summoned.

The Court also took on record the failure of the state government to post EROs of appropriate seniority, acknowledging that this administrative lapse directly affected the SIR process. As a result, the Mamata Banerjee government was forced to finally provide adequate manpower for the revision exercise. It has made it clear that micro-observers will continue in their supporting role and that EROs must take decisions strictly as per law, not political convenience. Rule of law will prevail in Bengal.

The Supreme Court’s observations on the plea filed by the West Bengal government are nothing short of a major blow to Mamata Banerjee. The Court has unequivocally upheld the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and refused to grant any stay, firmly endorsing the Election Commission’s statutory authority. It has made it clear that micro-observers will continue in their supporting role and that EROs must take decisions strictly as per law, not political convenience. Crucially, the Supreme Court has held that objections filed in Form 7 must be considered under the statutory scheme irrespective of the personal presence of the objector, a direct rejection of the attempts to dilute citizens’ rights. The Court also took on record the failure of the state government to post EROs of appropriate seniority, acknowledging that this administrative lapse directly affected the SIR process. As a result, the Mamata Banerjee government was forced to finally provide adequate manpower for the revision exercise. Had the state government acted responsibly earlier, ordinary citizens of Bengal would not have been subjected to what the Chief Minister herself termed as “harassment.” Most significantly, EROs are now on clear notice. The Supreme Court has unambiguously empowered the Election Commission to take disciplinary action against errant officials without routing it through the state government. Partisan conduct, political pressure, and deviation from service standards will no longer be tolerated. The Court also took cognisance of targeted intimidation and violence against conscientious citizens who filed Form 7 objections. It has recorded the abject failure of the state to maintain law and order and has directed the DGP (in-charge) to explain this breakdown. This order reinforces one simple truth: constitutional institutions will not bend before political pressure and the rule of law will prevail in Bengall, says BJP.