Reality:
46 MPs from Odisha and Andhra Pradesh are already with Narendra Modi
(In Maharashtra, the NDA tally can fall below 35 from the 41 the BJP and its then 'united' Shiv Sena had won in 2019. Some seats will fall in Karnataka as well. Hence, the number crunching is crucial and the Lotus party is looking towards east and even south to a large extent. In East, the BJP hopes to make significant gains in two states of Odisha and West Bengal. The former sends 21 MPs and Mamata-ruled West Bengal has 42 parliamentary constituencies.)
Put together, the BJP had won 26 seats in 2019 -- 18 from West Bengal and 8 from Odisha. The strike rate for total 63 seats was around 40 per cent -- and hence 'Modi Magic' is yet to give real dividends.
The number crunching goes in favour of BJP in another aspect. Come what may Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) will ensure that from Odisha -- all 21 MPs owe allegiance to Narendra Modi -- irrespective of how many seats are won by either BJP or BJD.
Modi has the unique advantage of all 25 MPs from Andhra Pradesh - either BJP, TDP or even YSR Congress Party of Jagan Mohan Reddy to support Modi.
So the reality is : 21 MPs of Odisha and 25 MPs of Andhra Pradesh are already with Modi. That comes 46. So when you calculate 400 equations next time -- please subtract 46 -- these seats are already with Modi (if not the NDA). So the target comes down to 354.
Out of these 2 seats are already with -- BJP -- Surat and Indore as Congress candidates have withdrawn from the battlefield.
Though dynasties continue to be 'common' in Indian film industry, sports, media, business and politics, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has 'successfully' drawn the contrast between his journey and metamorphosis as a Neta 'as the son of a poor tea seller' with Rahul Gandhi’s "more gilded upbringing" ... the one with golden spoon etc etc.
Rahul displays a vulgar arrogance of entitlement. His body language and utterances of a 'strong leader' is -- he wants to sound poetic at the moment of his mood swing. "Poverty is a state of mind..."
Rahul knows he can get away with showing disrespect to democratic norms and so he throws away official ordinance into pieces !! He conceals from Wayanad voters - his next move and then when he decided to contest from Rae Bareli disallowing electoral debut for Priyanka Gandhi -- his eco system 'Jai-rahim' logy tries to dub him as a chess champion.
This is for a leader who not only lost two elections. On both the occasions -- the party strength in Lok Sabha were all time low -- 44 in 2014 and 52 in 2019.
Yet, whatever comes out of his arrogance and self-interest guided move --- he has a masterstroke. At least Jai-rahim school of sycophancy would believe so.
Now the numbers ... ... BJP won 303 in 2019 and hence to reach near 370 -- the Lotus party and the Modi Magic will need some 'extra seats'. This seems more difficult as in some states --- the BJP had either won 100 per cent -- Rajasthan and Gujarat -- or near that in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and even north east with its smaller regional partners.
The NDA tally was around 330 in 2019 and there is need for around 70 seats in total.
** Why 400 may be reachable .... $$ BJP/NDA will have to retain grip on 200 to 210 seats out of a total of 244 seats.
$$ Gujarat and seven states in north east India are included in that.
$$ A major factor that may displease Oppositin INDI alliance is the fact that not much of a FIGHT is coming from two key non-Congress and non-BJP players -- the Samajwadi Party and the BSP.
In 2019 -- BJP's strike rate in UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Delhi, MP, Chhattisgarh was around 85 per cent. They may to retain almost the same vote share and strike rate.
*** BJP's calculation is gain in Uttar Pradesh will be fairly good. So from 64 seats in UP -- the tally could jump around 73 to 75. In 2014, the Lotus outfit had won 71 and 2 came to its ally Apna Dal.
** For Congress the turnaround in north is possible with a miracle because five years back -- it had won only 14 seats. Of course, there are chances of Congress gains in Rajasthan but the same may not be the tale in Madhya Pradesh or even Chhattisgarh.
## Out of 244 seats -- non-Congress opposition had won only 19 and the tally may come down even. Mayawati-led BSP had won 10 in 2019; but that figure may come down.
In western region including Goa, Gujarat and Maharashtra, the BJP's tally stood at around 90 percent. The saffron party won all seats in Gujarat and out of 48 in Maharashtra -- 41 came to BJP-united Shiv Sena ally. It was only post October 2019 state assembly polls in Maharashtra that Uddhav Thackeray betrayed BJP and the rest is history.
Of course, Maharashtra remains an enigma in 2024 as the two key parties Shiv Sena and NCP have split. But BJP has not split and like 2014 and 2019 -- votes are still being sought in this western state in the name of Narendra Modi.
On its own, the BJP had won 23 seats in Maharashtra and now it will be a tough call; but not really impossible. In the ultimate, the BJP and its two allies Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) factions can be happy if they retain at least 35 seats.
For a change look at the electioneering and campaign narratives.
Narendra Modi has the image of the "staunchest Hindu nationalist" ever to occupy the office of Prime Minister.
His campaign styles and narratives are appealing to people as the blame is on Congress for minority appeasement and not being pro-development for six decades. he even for the breakup of the subcontinent. That's Partition.
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