UP fourth phase of polls - Religion as an electoral opium : The 'Pakistan' angle and repeated reference to Muslims have caused further religious divides

Kanpur/Kannauj (Uttar Pradesh) 

Elections are certainly important features of democracy. A group of young and middle-aged people sat cross legged with coffee coloured dry mud on their feet. They take a sip of 'chai' and discuss Narendra Modi and his speech about the Muslim League reflections in the Congress Manifesto.

Some do not believe Modi, but few are concerned. One middle-aged Shamlal Yadav reminds journalists that Kanpur was once a Left bastion.

"Can you imagine for years Kanpur people voted for a 'Bengali Banerjee dada' here? He was a trade union leader and was with the CPI," says Yadav. His reference is to S M Banerjee, who used to win the Kanpur seat four times in 1957, 1962, 1967 and 1971 consecutively as an Independent MP. 

But communism is not much in discussion today. Like most political hubs, what's generally discussed in Kanpur in the 2024 polls is caste idiom and of course Ram Lalla and Hindutva.

"Ayega toh Modi hi," says 40-year-old Manju Devi, a school teacher. 

"Elections are nothing new for people, but this time the win for the BJP candidate seems a foregone conclusion. After the Ram temple inauguration, there is a Modi wave," she says. However, her colleague Kamli Prasad does not agree and says, "Ram is a matter of faith...but what about jobs and Acchey din ? My vote will go to the BSP candidate Kuldeep Bhadauriya".

There is a triangular contest in Kanpur with BSP's Bhadauriya pitted against BJP's Ramesh Awasthi and Alok Misra of Congress.

In 2019, BJP nominee Satyadev Pachauri had polled over 55 percent votes -- 4,68,937 and hence by all means the saffron party will have an easy walk.

This seat was with Sriprakash Jaiswal of the Congress in 1999, 2004 and 2009; but BJP veteran Murli Manohar Joshi had snatched it in 2014. Joshi actually moved from Varanasi to Kanpur after Narendra Modi became the Lotus party candidate in the pilgrim city. 

Interesting contests are on cards in Uttar Pradesh on the fourth phase of polling on May 13.

Along with Kanpur polls will be held in 12 other segments - Akbarpur, Baraich, Dhaurahra, Etawah, Farrukhabad, Hardoi, Kannauj, Kheri, Misrikh, Sitapur, Unnao and Shahjahanpur. 

Samajwadi party chief's prestige battle:

A fierce battle is on card in the Yadav stronghold Kannauj.

Here, no less than Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav wants to lead from the front. He had earlier nominated nephew Tej Pratap Singh Yadav. But as pressure mounted from grassroots workers, he changed the decision. Tej Pratap Yadav is the grandson of Mulayam Yadav's brother Ranveer.

Like Mainpuri, which witnessing voting on May 7th, Kannauj was a strong Samajwadi Party bastion.

It was won by Akhilesh Yadav's father and SP founder Mulayam Singh in 1999.

Akhilesh won it in 2000 by-poll and also in 2004, and 2009. After he became Chief Minister in 2012; his wife Dimple Yadav retained the family bastion in 2012 and 2014.

However, BJP's Subrat Pathak snatched the seat for BJP in the 2019 polls.

Subrat Pathak, who has been fielded again, in 2019 had polled 563,087 votes accounting 49.37 per cent and there was increase in BJP vote share by 7.26 per cent. In contrast, Dimple Yadav had polled 5,50,734 votes. This time Dimple contested from Mainpuri - which is the "safest" for the Yadav family.

A BJP booth worker at Kannuj says: "Akhilesh got scared when BJP's target of 80 seats looked very serious on ground. He did not trust his nephew and hence wants to contest himself. But the good thing is Akhilesh got busy with crowd and workers at Kannuj, the overall strategy planning and campaign had suffered for Samajwadi Party".

"Given Rahul Gandhi is winning Rae Bareli and let us give Kannauj to Akhilesh, BJP will win rest 78 seats with its ally Apna Dal in Uttar Pradesh," the BJP foot-soldier exuded confidence.

There are some in the Samajwadi Party camp who raise their eyebrows when asked about electoral prospects. "No battle is easy battle...Moreover, in Kannauj out of five assembly segments only Bidhuna is with us". Akhilesh certainly has a tough battle at hand.

Polls in Uttar Pradesh are always important. Educationist Vidyarthi Kumar in Kanpur

says, "The politics is changing fast....The leaders are struggling hard to keep pace with the dynamics of these changes. An elite created in a Left liberal and western mould has outlived relevance”.

He describes Akhilesh Yadav as a fighter but "not like his father". At the same time he says, it's a bitter truth that the BJP has huge advantage in Uttar Pradesh.

For Congress the turnaround in UP and other northern states is possible only with a miracle, he notes.

Kumar analyses, "In 2019 -- BJP's strike rate in UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Delhi, MP, Chhattisgarh was around 85 per cent. They may retain the same with some minor variations". 

So from 64 seats in UP -- the BJP's tally could jump around 70, many say.

One Samajwadi supporter Ali Mukhtar says, "The opposition could have fought much strongly had Congress was a strong outfit as an organisation. We know Congress leaders on Twitter and Congress offices….but we do not know Congress workers”.

Many agree; and a few even say that’s the anti-BJP votes may come to the Mayawati-led BSP and thus ‘Behen ji’ may emerge as a dark horse in the race.

For Muslim citizens like Ali Mukhtar, the polls 2024 are critical as issues linked to Partition of 1947 has surfaced this year. "Either way, we may become target once polls are over...," he expresses apprehension. 

“Everyone wants a right connect with the BJP and its leaders such as Modi and Yogi Adityanath. I am surprised the manner people support arrest of Muslim youths and use of bulldozers,” said motor mechanic Syed Mia.

About the national scene, academics do discuss the obvious that India has over 220 million Muslims making a fifth of its population of 1.4 billion, Muslim representatives in Parliament have declined to less than five per cent. 

In segments such as Etawah, another Yadav bastion, people talk about the fate of Muslim citizens but some also blame themselves for "being long misused by politicians".

Though a Yadav pocket-borrow once, in 2014 and 2019 polls -- the BJP has been winning the Etawah seat.

For a decade between 1999 and 2009 -- Samajwadi Party has been winning it.

But in 2014 Ashok Kumar Doharey of BJP had snatched it; and in 2019 - Ram Shankar Katheria retained it for the saffron party.

"We want to achieve a hat-trick at Etawah. It will be considered a major success for the Hindutva movement because for long MY - Muslim and Yadav card worked for SP here," says Dolly Gupta, a local BJP Mahila Morcha leader.

Etawaha has a strong presence of Dalit caste voters but there are also over 2 lakh

Brahmin voters. The constituency has one lakh Muslims, over one lakh Lodh community and over 2 lakh Yadav voters. 

In some segments going to the polls on May 13; the India-Pakistan rivalry has also surfaced in some pockets. In Farrukabad parliamentary constituency, a group of voters pointed out that the bitterness over Pakistan “exists” even in normal times in this region.

 Therefore, the BJP is smartly trying to tap it during elections to garner votes.

Moreover, comments about ‘Vote-Jihad’ by senior Congress leader Salman Khurhid’s niece Maria Alam Khan are also being debated. 

The BJP’s claim that the Congress is planning to ‘re-distribute’ the wealth of wealthy and upper-middle-class Hindus to Muslims has also polarised the common people. But many Hindu voters say PM Modi should not have called all Muslims “infiltrators” with many children.

Laxman Ram Tulsi says when Congress leader Rahul Gandhi announced at an election rally that his party would survey the lower backward classes, Dalits, tribal people, minorities, to ‘share’ country’s wealth; many linked it to pandering to “Muslim interest.” 

The Pakistan angle and repeated reference to Muslims have caused further religious divides among the electorate.

Kanpur-based trader Nitai Gupta says, things went wrong for Congress and also for Samajwadi Party when a Pakistani ex-Minister Chaudhry Fawad Hussain, applauded Rahul Gandhi and compared him with the first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

Ms Maria campaigning for Samajwadi Party candidate Naval Kishore Shakya had said: “We can do only Vote Jihad to drive away the Sanghi government”.

Many locals say her statement may not be ill-intended; but was unwarranted and wrong in an election season. She is an educated and hence to consider Maria’s statement is out of innocence is unwarranted, says a Samajwadi supporter.

Blogger's report in prestigious Telugu daily Eenadu !!

From Unnao, BJP’s vocal radical leader Sakshi Maharaj is eyeing hat-trick. In 2004 Brajesh Pathak of BSP had represented the constituency. 

In 2009, it was Annu Tandon of Congress. But Sakshi Maharaj Bharatiya wrested it in 2014 and also retained it in 2019 with a huge margin as the BJP candidate had polled over 56 per cent of votes. 

His rival was again Annu Tandon, But she is contesting on the Samajwadi Party ticket this time and that promises to make a very interesting battle. In 2019, Sakshi Maharaj had polled 703,507 votes against 3,02,551 by Samajwadi Party candidate. Ms Annu Tandon had polled only 1,85,634 votes – that is a modest 15.01 per cent.  

Annu Tandon is married to to Sandeep Tandon, who served as a senior executive 

of Reliance.

Before joining Reliance in 1994, Sandeep as an officer of Enforcement Directorate had investigated foreign front companies floated by Reliance, and also conducted a raid.

For his part, Sakshi Maharaj made news recently when he said, “BJP’s tally will be far more than 400, it may even touch 450 mark”.

There is a lot of political excitement in Sitapur – that also goes to polls on May 13.

Many say none can be sure about a win in this constituency as the voters have time and again sprang major surprises. 

In 1991 Janardan Prasad Mishra of BJP won it. In 1996, it passed on to Mukhtar Anees of Samajwadi Party. In 1998, Mishra again snatched it. In 1999, entered a significant player 

Rajesh Verma of Bahujan Samaj Party. He won it again in 2004 and in 2009, Kaisar Jahan won it again for the BSP.

But in 2014, Rajesh Verma was with the BJP and he was again rewarded by the electorate. Verma could win the seat even in 2019. This time his rival is Rakesh Rathore of Congress. 

ends