These 115 seats left for the 6th and 7th phases of polls will in the ultimate analysis seal the fate of 2024 big battle.
Going by the performance in 2014 as well as 2019 -- the BJP has huge advantage and these seats could be the game-changers in the final tally.
May 25 -- 6th phase and 7th phase polling will be held on June 1 including in Varanasi -- from where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is contesting for the third time.
File snap: EVM Demonstration
From Uttar Pradesh, phase 6 of Lok Sabha Elections 2024, will be held on 14 seats.
These are -- Sultanpur, Pratapgarh, Phulpur, Allahabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Shrawasti, Domriyaganj, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Lalganj, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Machhlishahr, and Bhadohi.
In the last phase of voting, June 1, UP will see polling in Varanasi, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushi Nagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Ghosi, Salempur, Ballia, Ghazipur, Chandauli, Mirzapur and Robertsganj.
All eyes will be in Delhi (May 25th) - Seven seats and also 13 parliamentary constituencies in Punjab -
Gurdaspur, Amritsar, Khadoor Sahib, Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, Anandpur Sahib, Ludhiana, Fatehgarh Sahib, Faridkot, Firozpur, Bathinda, Sangrur and Patiala,
There are attempts to give a spin that local issues could be played up by the Congress and Samajwadi chiefly in eastern UP but it is also a fact that Narendra Modi remains most powerful and influential leader in the region and hence a 'pro-Modi wave' will feature on the last moment.
Akhilesh Yadav, Samajwadi Party chief, will play up his MY card with little concoction and a modest social engineering and trying to woo non-Jatav Dalits. To counter Muslim-Yadav phenomenon, the BJP has its own version of MY card -- that is Modi-Yogi combine and it brought them dividends in 2022 assembly polls.
Earlier alliances by Akhilesh Yadav with the Congress in 2017 assembly polls and with the BSP in 2019 Lok Sabha polls did not yield him any major dividend.
But Mayawati did benefit and the BSP picked up as many as 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. As a result, the BJP tally fell from 71 in 2014 to 62 in 2019.
Now, the BJP aims to cross 70-72 margin again to make it 350 or so on its own at the national level. But these are easy said than done. Of course, the saffron party will bank on the Ram Mandir factor and this polarisation and Hindu unity is expected to result in miracles in favour of Namo and his Moditva doctrine.
In the 2022 assembly elections, smaller Dalit and OBC parties made modest shift from the BJP in some crucial pockets.
Akhilesh accordingly tried to do a little change of image from the champions of the Muslim-Yadav hegemony.
He tried to call himself a leader of the “pichde” -- the backwards.
Thus, Hindutva remains a dominant force to debate about but 'social justice' as understood by Akhiesh is also a factor that cannot be underestimated.
According to analysts - out of 63 seats the SP is contesting, Akhilesh Yadav has tried to take a copy from Mayawati's 2007 poll strategies and accommodate non-Yadav backward communities.
This approach could be easily understood the way he selected candidates for Basti, Pratapgarh, Gonda, Shravasti, Kushinagar and Pilibhit.
But most of these seats including Basti, Pilibhit and a few more are BJP strongholds.
What is really set to change the game in these elections in Uttar Pradesh is
Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath “double engine” and also the crucial game-changer and that works as force multiplier is Modi’s candidature from Varanasi.
Moreover, in Purvanchal, Yogi Adityanath is immensely popular and has a mega fan following.
The major improvement in law and order situation under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will give BJP huge advantage and hence the possibility of clean sweep by the saffron party is quite bright.
ends
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