Perception battle is key ...... How Congress could find itself in 'mess' in Rae Bareli ::: 12 per cent Muslims but there is a Mayawati candidate...Brahmins 10 per cent and 'tall' Samajwadi leader Manoj Pandey is backing BJP

"The loss of the family bastion seat of Amethi underscored the dwindling relevance of south Asia’s most famous political dynasty in Narendra Modi’s “new India”, 

- The Guardian in 2019 

Rae Bareli need not be a cakewalk for Rahul Gandhi. 

Take the caste and community composition. There are 12 per cent Muslims and 34 per cent Dalits or Scheduled Castes. To make things complex is Mayawati-led BSP nominee; and that party is popular for often springing surprise by doing miracles in social engineering.

Modi said: "Daro Mat, Bhago mat" 

Thakur Prasad Yadav is the BSP nominee who will be locked in a triangular contest against  Rahul and BJP's Dinesh Pratap Singh. The BJP had actually put up a very good fight against Sonia Gandhi in 2019. 

Here is the statistics for you !!  In 2014, Sonia's victory was quite comfortable and huge. 

But in 2019, Sonia Gandhi had suffered a setback/shortfall of 8 percent of votes. She polled 534,918 votes and that made 55.80 per cent of votes.

In contrast, BJP's Dinesh Pratap Singh, who is contesting yet again, polled 367,740 votes and that made 38.36 percent. This was fairly below Sonia's tally. But importantly, the saffron party's vote share had increased by as high as 17.31 percent. 

This 'increase' will be something the Congress should be careful about and this will work as a booster for the BJP.  Notably, in 2014, Sonia Gandhi bagged 526,434 votes and here too it was shortfall of 8.43  per cent of votes than she had polled in 2009. 

Rae Bareli has about 24 per cent Pasi community and they can also tilt balance any of the three ways. 

Other caste groups are: Brahmins - 10 per cent and Rajputs 6.5 per cent. More into the caste games --- BJP candidate is a Rajput and BSP candidate is a Yadav. What adds to BJP's kitty is a senior Brahmin leader Manoj Pandey is a Samajwadi leader but his son has joined BJP and senior Pandey is also with the Lotus party for all practical purpose. 

Manoj Pandey voted for BJP during the Rajya Sabha election. Pandey also has met the BJP candidate along with his son. 

So what happens next ? 

In Rae Bareli out of five assembly segments, in 2022 polls - Samajwadi Party had won four. One went to Aditi Singh -- now with BJP. From Unchahar assembly segment winner was Manoj Pandey -- a great fighter and he has lately shifted alliance to the BJP. 

A look back:

List of Rae Bareli MPs

1952 Feroze Gandhi - Congress

1957

1960^ R P Singh

1962 Baijnath Kureel

1967 Indira Gandhi

1971

(all Congress)

1977 Raj Narain Janata Party

1980 Indira Gandhi Indian National Congress

1980^ Arun Nehru

1984

1989 Sheila Kaul

1991

1996 Ashok Singh Bharatiya Janata Party

1998

1999 Satish Sharma Indian National Congress

2004 Sonia Gandhi

2006^

2009
2014
2019