As Varanasi goes to polls, 'Modi factor' likely to dominate poll scene
God, Modi and a deceased gangster !
Varanasi
You are entering the last phase of polling for the big battle of 2024.
As we step into Varanasi - the sacred Hindu pilgrim city - there is a buzz about
Namo -- that is Narendra Modi.
And there is no election-type atmosphere around. The Prime Minister has won the seat in 2014 and 2019 and this time too if anything is certain about the election of fiercely fought 2024 battle is -- there is no competition in Varanasi.
"The biggest failure of India's opposition parties in the last 10 years is that they could not pose a formidable competition to Narendra Modi in Varanasi. They could not prepare one among themselves or even a celebrity to take on Narendra Modi. I am surprised," says one foreign journalist Christine Robinson.
Of course, she forgets to mention that in 2014; no less than Arvind Kejirwal had contested and he was humbled by a huge margin.
In 2014 against AAP chief and now a bitter critic Kejriwal; Modi's victory margin was 3,71,784 votes.
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Five years later in 2019, Modi humbled his nearest rival a virtual non-entity Ms Shalini Yadav of Samajwadi Party.
Congress nominee Ajay Rai had finished third and could poll only 14 per cent of votes as against 18 per cent by the Samajwadi Party nominee and a staggeringly high 63.62 per cent of votes by Narendra Modi.
In Varanasi, the BJP supporters and workers throw up slogans hailing Narendra Modi rather effortlessly.
One 22-year-medical student Dina Nath says, "Look, ......
Varanasi is a pilgrim city. Modi was wise enough to select this constituency when he stepped out of Gujarat...It helped BJP gain votes in other eastern UP seats as well. If Lord Shiva is supreme in Varanasi and if we all are Ram Bhakts; one can say Modi is the civilisational hero".
Here is the data:
In 2019, PM Modi polled 674,664 votes making it 63.62 per cent f votes. This was also a gain of 7.25 per cent for Modi as against his votes polled in 2014.
SP's Shalini Yadav had polled 195,159 -- that is 18.40 per cent and
Ajay Rai could manage a modest 152,548 votes - that is 14.38 per cent.
The Congress displayed unique guts to make Rai the pradesh Congress president
and he is again pitted against the tallest leader of the saffron brigade. Of course, Samajwadi Party is a Congress ally this time. Hence there is no candidate from the Akhilesh Yadav camp.
(see Box 1 --)
PM Modi held a mega roadshow before filing nomination and he was accompanied by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath. BJP booth workers say the Prime Minister's victory from Varanasi is a foregone conclusion.
Only issue being debated is the margin. One of them said, "We are expecting a much bigger margin because Matrishakti -- women voters - are with him in an unprecedented sense of dedication and purpose.
In fact, a large number of women in saffron attire walked ahead of the vehicle carrying Modi during the roadshow on May 13.
Election in Ghazipur is also something likely to be exciting. In 2019 -- notwithstanding the ‘Modi wave’, BJP candidate Manoj Sinha lost the seat to Afzal Ansari of the BSP by a substantial margin.
BSP's Ansari had polled 566,082 votes making it 51.20 per cent to humble Manoj Sinha, then a Union Minister, who had polled 4,46,690 votes.
It may be mentioned Manoj Sinha, who is at present Lt Governor in Jammu and Kashmir, had won the seat in 2014.
In 2024, Afzal Ansari is again in the fray but this time on Samajwadi Party ticket and BJP's nominee is Paras Nath Rai while BSP candidate in the battle is Umesh Singh.
On July 24, 2023, the Allahabad High Court had granted bail to the five-time MLA and two-time MP Ansari in a serious case but declined to stay his conviction.
As a result, though Afzal was released from jail, his Lok Sabha membership was not restored and he could not contest polls.
But after Supreme Court has stayed the conviction, he became eligible to contest.
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Now, there is little more twist in the tale. With a court case hanging threatening possible disqualification even if elected, SP candidate Afzal Ansari asked Ghazipur voters to signal their discontent with a record win for him.
He is also the elder brother gangster Mukhtar Ansari who died of cardiac arrest in jail. It is also worth mentioning that Mukhtar Ansari, who ran his own gang in the 1990s, had more than 60 criminal cases against him and 15 of which included murder charges.
Gorakhpur will be also a keenly watched constituency from where BJP has fielded sitting member Ravi Kishan, also a popular actor.
The Congress had won the seat last time in 1984 that is 40 years back.
In 1989 it was Mahant Avedyanath of the Hindu Mahasabha and between 1991 and 2018 by poll, it was with BJP. In 2018 by-poll, Praveen Nishad of Samajwadi had won the by-election after the seat was vacated by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
BJP stalwart, Yogi Adityanth had won the seat in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014.
In 2019, actor Ravi Kishan won it for the BJP again.
For the saffron party, the road to New Delhi is always via Uttar Pradesh. And since Modi plunged into the electoral fray from Varanasi in 2024; the eastern part of the state has contributed immensely for the Lotus party.
In the last general election in 2019, the BJP won 62 of UP's 80 seats and two came to its ally Apna Dal. In 2014, it was better when it won 71. Now, for 2024 historic battle; India's election process has reached the last stage.
Modi and his Hindu-nationalist BJP are seeking a third term. There are all sorts of predictions and analyses being made.
The BJP no doubt has a formidably well-oiled election machine and it is quite powerful in UP especially under the Modi-Yogi duo flavour. Of course eastern Uttar Pradesh will be crucial yet again for the Team Modi which has high ambitions to "reshape the political landscape" in the country for generations to come.
Interesting contests are also on cards in constituencies such as
Kushi Nagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Ghosi, Salempur, Ballia, Chandauli and Mirzapur,
Other constituencies among the 13 those will be keenly fought on June 1 are Maharajganj and Robertsganj.
From Ballia, BJP is fielding Neeraj Shekhar, son of former Prime Minister Chandrashekhar. The former Young Turk against Indira Gandhi had won the seat multiple times -- - 1989, 1991, 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2004.
In 2009, Neeraj had won the prestigious family seat as Samajwadi Party nominee.
But in 2014, Bharat Singh and in 2019, Virendra Singh Mast had won it.
Mast is the national president of BJP kisan Morcha. However, he has been replaced
and in 2024 polls; Neeraj Shekhar has to win the seat for the BJP.
He will take on Sanatan Pandey of Samajwad Party.
From Robertsganj, Apna Dal (Sonelal) party nominee Rinki Kol is in the fray.
In 2009, Pakaudi Lal Kol had won it for Samajwadi Party. But in
2014, Chhotelal Kharwar wrested the seat for BJP. In 2019, the seat
went to Pakaudi Lal Kol.
In the 2019 elections, Apna Dal (Sonelal) joined hands with the BJP and fielded two candidates Anupriya Patel Singh from Mirzapur and Pakauri Lal from Robertsganj and won both the seats.
Ms Anupriya Patel had won the seat in 2014 as well. She is now the Union Minister of State for Commerce and Industry.
In this region, according to local booth workers both in the BJP and the Congress camps -- an interesting battle is on cards in Maharajganj.
In 2009, Harsh Vardhan had won the seat for Congress. However, in last few elections; voters here had reposed faith in the BJP and its nominee Pankaj Chaudhary.
BJP's Pankaj Chaudhary is again the party nominee to take on
Congress candidate Virendra Chaudhary.
In 2014 and 2019; Pankaj Chaudhary had retained the seat for the Lotus party.
However, local analysts say Virendra Chaudhary will not be an easy pushover.
In some constituencies in this region, two factors would work the most. The role of mafia and dons -- which is apparently on decline since 2021-22. There is another factor -- it is caste and also the communal Hindu-Muslim polarisation.
These problems run so deep that many admit for months there have been tension and mutual suspicions in some pockets.
Citing the illustration of Ghazipur; a few people say many locals actually welcomed the news of the death of the well-known gangster. On the other hand, some people were in sorrowful mood.
"Let us sit, eat and talk together...This is what I try telling young children," says Iswahar Yadav, a school teacher.
One Christian social worker from the north east laments that tension prevails beneath the surface,
Some youths jokingly describe the sub-region as "Modi's workshop" and one of them explains that this region since the last 10 years is finding a new rhythm of developmental works, improvements in roads and at the same there is a great awakening happening culturally and in religious learning.
Some political strategists find these eastern UP constituencies a testing ground in a general sense to check how 'neo-Hindutva politics' along with welfarism would work.
"Slowly, people are uniting and divisive policies are being rejected," said one Hindu shopkeeper.
However, Muslims complain against banning of cow slaughter and meat business.
"We are dreaming that as country's Prime Minister is representing our region; this area will also turn modern, self-satisfactory, self-reliant and multicultural," says Yasmin Farheen, an office goer.
She also adds, "We need to turn this region as education hub".
A college student endorses her views and adds, "My slogan is Jeetega bhai jeetega achha neta jeetega (only a good leader should win)," he screams - raising voice to be heard over the sound of music and some political announcements blaring from speakers.
In Salempur, BJP's Ravindra Kushwaha, two-time MP, is pitted against Ramashankar Rajbhar of Samajwadi Party.
In 1999, the seat had gone to Babban Rajbhar of Bahujan Samaj Party. Five years later, in 2004 Hari Kewal Prasad of Samajwadi Party had won it. Again in 2009, Ramashankar Rajbhar of BSP wrested it.
But in 2014 and 2019, it has been BJP's Ravindra Kushwaha.
In Deoria constituency as well there is lot of political excitement.
The seat was with Mohan Singh of Samajwadi Party in 1998. In
1999, Prakash Mani Tripathi won it for the BJP. But in 2004, Mohan Singh of Samajwadi Party got it back.
In 2009, it passed on to Gorakh Prasad Jaiswal of the BSP. In 2014, BJP strongman Kalraj Mishra moved here and 2019 Ramapati Ram Tripathi had won it.
This year, BJP has fielded Shashank Mani Tripathi and the Congress candidate is Akhilesh Pratap Singh.
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Varanasi has a unique history of political representation
The grand old party, Congress, represented the constituency 7 terms making it -- 41.18% per cent while BJP also won it for seven terms (41.18 percent), The communists CPI-M had won it once and similarly one term each went to Janata Party and Janata Dal.
Notably, in 1977, no less than Janata Party stalwart and a die-hard anti-Indira leader Chandra Shekhar had won the seat. It has been won by the likes of Kamalapathi Tripathi (Congress in 1980), Anil Shastri (Janata Dal) and also Dr Murli Manohor Joshi (BJP in 2009).
In 1967, Satya Narain Singh had won the seat for Communist Party of India (Marxist).
Ends
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