Tamil Nadu elections 2024 :::: How BJP thought 'big', took risks and there are chances it will reap dividends !! ---- Congress lost opportunities over the years

People in Tamil Nadu are tiered of five decade old Dravidian politics.

There was a time when people hardly had any good chance to choose between DMK and AIADMK. But Congress shied away from direct contest. It opted for easier option and went for alliance chiefly with DMK. 

BJP supporters line up for Modi: Jan 2024 

The Congress even forgot Rajiv Gandhi assassination and also the 1997 development when the DMK withdrew support to the United Front regime led by I K Gujral because the Jain Commission probing Rajiv's death made some uncomfortable observations.  

The BJP also played the alliance game earlier including with highly discredited AIADMK; but in 2024 -- it decided to pursue the game little differently. It tried to turn disadvantage into advantage. 

The upper caste Tamils are today overwhelmed by Narendra Modi or Namo charm.

It tried all tricks and laboured hard to test the waters to see if can win seats on its own. 

Old Tamil Nadu experts would say legendary MGR gave a relatively corruption free government between 1977 and 1980. However, according to analyst R C Rajamani, the same cannot be said about his subsequent two terms till 1987 -- when he breathed last. 

Under AIADMK and DMK; what really characterised the face of governance in Tamil Nadu is systematic loot of public money, organised state-supported violence, infiltration of entire layers of educational and state administration with party cadres and also plunder the natural resources of the state like rver sand etc. 

The BJP this time gave the Tamil voters a good option and it remains to be seen how things really span out on the result day. Even worst detractors of the saffron party admit, the vote share will increase.

In 2021 assembly polls, the BJP contested in alliance with AIADMK. It's vote share was 2.62 and four (4) seats out of 20 it gave candidates. 

In 2019, the BJP lost the single seat it had managed to win in the 2014 general election in Tamil Nadu and its vote share fell from 5.6 percent in 2014 to 3.66 percent in 2019. 

In fact, the landslide victory across India had not impact either in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Hence when the first phase of polling went on in 2024, the opposition camp was in jubilation and the ecosystem supported them to push the line that Narendra Modi is losing.

It's not being myopic; the propaganda theme is to mislead people elsewhere. They systematically exploited the lower turnout of voters. The Congress and other INDI alliance constituents want polls 2024 to turn into local battles -- not only at the state levels but also district, assembly and block levels.

The chances are not quite bright as Narendra Modi has kept his pet issues burning. 

But it is also true that the BJP’s best performance in Tamil Nadu in 1999 when it won four seats in parliament and in 2021, when it secured four seats in the Tamil Nadu assembly.

An important reason for the BJP’s minimal influence in Tamil Nadu is the dominant Dravidian ideology and politics in the state, says an article 'The Diplomat'. 

Unlike the Hindi-Hindutva-upper caste ideology of the BJP, the Dravidian ideology is is anti-Brahminical Hinduism. And also Dravidian parties have long-resisted the imposition of the Hindi language on Tamil Nadu.

PM Modi traveled to Tamil Nadu multiple times to woo voters and inaugurate major infrastructure projects and schemes. 

Since January this year, he has visited the state nine times at least seven times and participated in massive road shows and rallies. All the road shows were highly successful. 

Moreover, Modi’s speeches reference Tamil literary works and appeal to Tamil pride. The BJP government gave prominence to the “sengol,” a Chola dynasty scepter, during the grand inauguration of the new Parliament building in 2023. 
"In a bid to project itself as the guardian of Tamil interests, the Modi government also raked up a settled dispute with Sri Lanka over the Kachatheevu island to win the support of Tamils," says 'The Diplomat' article.  

It is also true that the influence of Dravidian ideology is declining. This has opened up space for the BJP.  

Post-elections, Amit Shah said the Lotus party will win seats in all southern states. But he too is cautious about numbers even as some predictions claimed that the BJP could pick up a few odd seats both in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. 

A few years back, analyst Rajamani had said, "Given the way DMK and AIADMK campaign, Tamil Nadu should be an Utopian state. But that is hardly the case. If DMK promised mixie and grinder to women voters; the AIADMK promised both these items and also a fan.... This is how they justified the loot".

But under Modi, the BJP never joined this freebie competition and hence a sensible and substantial section of Tamil voters were pleased with the campaign style and themes of the BJP.  

"Making a breakthrough into India’s southern states, among the richest and most well-educated in the country, is crucial to Modi’s ambitions to gain an even larger parliamentary majority in this election and extend the reach of the BJP to every corner of the country. However, it will be no easy feat for his party," says London-based newspaper 'The Guardian'. 

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