Lucknow/Rae Bareli
In the fifth phase of polling on May 20, all roads would lead to Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh.
Even as BJP stalwart and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is in the fray in Lucknow and there are other high profile contestants such as Smriti Irani in Amethi, the media and public focus will be on how Rahul Gandhi performs in the family bastion Rae Bareli.
Of course, another former bastion of the Congress dynasty - Amethi seat - too will see polling on the same day. Analysts and political players are keeping fingers crossed for Rae Bareli.
Rahul's grandmother Indira Gandhi represented Rae Bareli in 1967 and 1971 but lost to maverick Raj Narain in 1977 after Emergency. She, however, got back the constituency in 1980.
Sonia Gandhi represented the segment since 2004 and won the seat as many as five times. Now, Sonia has moved to the Rajya Sabha and Rahul will be taking on BJP's Dinesh Pratap Singh.
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The BJP booth workers say in addition to all other issues such as Muslim quota and PM Narendra Modi's performance in the last 10 years; it is anybody's guess that sycophancy is also being discussed.
"Many of our friends who want to vote for Congress say chamchagiri (sycophancy) has harmed the Congress," said one of them. A grocery shop owner says: "Even journalists have harmed the Congress as there is no real criticism of the lapses of the leadership and the dynasty". But very few say Rahul Gandhi will not win, indicating that the Congress leader who has also fought it out in Wayanad in Kerala has an edge.
Locals in this region talk of caste politics and "self-seeking" approaches as a menace and lament that as a result of these machinations and political culture the development has suffered.
"Roads into rural pockets are still in a bad shape in Uttar Pradesh though some improvements took place after 2022," says trader Harish Lal.
Most local residents admit and insist that this time too the caste and other divisive cards are being played up even as Rahul Gandhi's entering the fray has made things exciting.
"The battle will be more political but people are discussing caste idioms. Of course, Rahul Gandhi has a huge advantage. But in the last few elections, we have noticed that more than the Congress gaining the anti-BJP vote, the BJP is better at consolidating the anti-Congress vote," says a retired Tahsildar Teerthankar Pandey.
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Besides Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh will see voting on May 20 in Amethi, Mohanlalganj, Lucknow, Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Banda, Fatehpur, Kaushambi, Barabanki, Kaiserganj, Gonda and Faizabad.
In Amethi, BJP supporters are keen again to ensure the victory of Union Minister Smriti Irani.
"This is new Uttar Pradesh...Look at the roads and toilets. As in several parts of the
state, the conditions of rural roads have improved a lot under Double Engine government. Earlier, the roads reflected years of poor governance," says a 42-year-old local resident Gautam Thapa.
In 2019, Smriti Irani won the Amethi seat by polling 468,514 votes. This came about 49.71 per cent and this was a major improvement of 15.33 per cent swing from what she had polled in 2014.
Rahul Gandhi's vote share in 2019 had dropped by 2.85 per cent to 413,394 votes.
In 2014, when Smriti Irani contested against Rahul for the first time, the victory margin in favour of Congress nominee (then party vice president) was 1.07,903 votes.
Thus, simple calculation shows Congress nominee (for this year's battle) Kishori Lal Sharma will face a tough fight. In 2009, Rahul had polled 71 per cent votes and so there was a clear decline in vote share for the Congress in the last two parliamentary polls.
In the assembly polls in 2022 - from Amethi - out of five assembly segments, the BJP had won three and two went to the Samajwadi Party.
"I am winning...," said a confident Sharma, a long time associate of the Nehru-Gandhi family.
In the state capital Lucknow, Defence Minister Rajnath will be looking for a hat-trick. He had represented this prestigious seat - once held by Atal Bihari Vajpayee - in 2014 and 2019.
Rajnath Singh polled 633,026 -- making 56.70 per cent votes in 2019 and his nearest rival Poonam Sinha of Samajwadi Party could manage only 2,85,724 votes.
In fact, Lucknow has been a BJP stronghold now for years - since 1991.
(see box)
First Voting in Ayodhya after Ram Temple inauguration
Lallu Singh has been winning the prestigious Faizabad seat in 2014 and also 2019.
The BJP has a huge advantage here as the grand Ram Temple is now a reality. Lallu Singh is locked in a triangular contest against SP candidate Awadhesh Prasad and Sachchidanand Pandey of BSP.
Interestingly, in 2009, Nirmal Khatri of Congress had won the seat.
In 1991 and 1996 it was represented by radical hardliner Vinay Katiyar.
In 1998 Mitrasen Yadav of Samajwadi Party wrested it but in 1999, again it came back to the saffron fold. But in 2004, Mitrasen Yadav of Bahujan Samaj Party won it.
'It is true the BJP is confident of sweeping the general election riding on a 'Hindu wave'. It is also a fact that the Ram temple placed PM Modi in prime position," says Badriprasad Mohan in Lucknow.
Among the seats going to the polls on May 20, Barabanki also offers an exciting contest as the Congress has fielded Tanuj Punia.
In 2009, his father PL Punia had won the seat for the Congress. P L Punia also became very close to the Congress leadership. In 2014, Priyanka Singh Rawat had won the seat for BJP and in 2019 it was Upendra Singh Rawat.
In 2024, Rajrani Rawat is pitted against Tanuj Punia and it remains to be seen how much the Congress is able to make a difference this year.
Kaushambi Lok Sabha Constituency has been a political powerhouse once. Kaushambi has always reflected a diverse demographic.
Sitting MP Vinod Kumar Sonkar of BJP, and Pushpendra Saroj from Samajwadi Party are the prominent candidates.
Sonkar made news in December 2023 when a panel headed by him expelled Trinamool MP Mahua Moitra.
In 2009, Shailendra Kumar of Samajwadi Party had won the seat. But in 2014 and 2019, it has been Vinod Sonkar.
Now in 2024, he is pitted against Pushpendra Saroj of Samajwadi Party.
Hamirpur will be another keenly fought constituency.
In 1984, Swami Prasad Singh of Congress had won it. It 1989, it passed on to Ganga Charan Rajput of Janata Dal. Vishwanath Sharma of BJP wrested the seat in 1991.
In 1996 and 1998, it went to Ganga Charan Rajput of BJP. But in 1999, Ashok Kumar Singh Chandel won the key seat for BSP. But in 2004, it came to Samajwadi Party and 2009 again to the BSP candidate Vijay Bahadur Singh. But in 2014 and 2019, the seat belonged to Pushpendra Chandel of the BJP.
Wrap up:
For many political observers, the May 20 - that is the fifth phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh – should be more than usual or a routine voting exercise.
The new India under Narendra Modi is "not apologetic" about its Hinduism or a distinct Indianness in the civilizational context. In fact, many Hindus are these days 'not defensive' about Hindu culture in this central part of Uttar Pradesh state.
They are proud of their culture. Observers and even local residents say religion is no more about leading a traditional, peaceful way of life in circa 2024. It is also a powerful tool that has changed the way the Hindus will perceive politics.
And one cannot blame the politicians alone for this change. Analyst Tushar Bhadra told Eenadu News, "The same people — politicians and intellectuals who once said a temple built on the ruins of a mosque cannot be welcomed; are today calling the idol of an infant Ram as a national icon" .
Then how do Muslims feel the changing dynamics? One retired banker and a Muslim says, Non-Hindus may soon understand that that the Western model of democracy as was adopted by India in 1947 is on the decline. "It may vanish as well," he added.
But the debate is far from over. There is a new school of thought, which says one cannot compare apples to oranges. A Masjid cannot be an inherent part of Indian history.
The argument is that a mosque in Ayodhya was called "Masjid-e-Janmesthan" (Mosque dedicated to the birthplace). How can there be such a name?
ends
Box 1 :: Lucknow - A safe BJP bastion
1971 Sheila Kaul Indian National Congress
1977 Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna Janata Party
1980 Sheila Kaul Indian National Congress
1984 also Sheila Kaul - Congress
1989 Mandhata Singh Janata Dal
1991 Atal Bihari Vajpayee - BJP
Vajpayee won it in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and in 2009 it was Lal Ji Tandon.
Rajnath Singh won the seat in 2014 and 2019.
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