Sunday, December 15, 2024

Who and what are "choking all trade routes" of Iran, Russia and China ? ::::: Does Modi's India need to be more than cautious ?

'Strategic Billiard' -- if is a game, the new century players are up playing it. 

You take a stick and hit at a ball...the latter rolls down and sends another ball inside the hole ! Whom can one blame, the stick, the first ball or the hands who have mastered the art of billiard games ?

Or it's better to give credit to the 'brain' ?? Or something 'deeper' ??? 


First let us take up the agenda (if nay) 'destabilize Syria' !!

This was perhaps never just a civil war. Experts say it has metamorphosed into a battlefield for energy dominance but at the same time it is masked as a fight for freedom and even democracy. 

Come closer home; in northeast of India - we have Manipur in turmoil. 

"...Our turbulent North East, especially Manipur, are indicating towards a bigger game," ran a posting Twitter handle NewsOptics. 


The word Optics should make a better sense, as they put it.  




"guarded blogger" ... landscape North East 


Back to Syria and what do those in the know of things analyse ?


"In the mid-2000s, the West saw Europe's reliance on Russian gas as a threat. The four countries with the largest gas reserves are #Russia, #Iran, Qatar, and Turkmenistan. Of these, only #Qatar is within the American sphere of influence. To access Qatar's gas, the West needed a pipeline through Syria," -- is one refrain.  






Now look at what a leading western media - BBC - says  

"Russia already had a decades-long relationship with the Assad government, and had military bases there before the civil war. Russian President Vladimir Putin used his country's presence in Syria, and support of Assad, to challenge the power and dominance of the West in the region.


In 2015, Russia launched an air campaign and sent thousands of troops in support of the Assad regime.

In return, Russia received 49-year leases on an air base and naval base, which provided crucial hubs in the eastern Mediterranean for transferring military contractors in and out of Africa.


This marked an important stage in Russia's attempt to assert itself as a global power, previously focusing its efforts on nations that were once in the Soviet bloc." 






None can dispute some of these arguments put forward by the BCC -- which for long held the good old myopic westernized prism which showed -- the west as the best and the natural inheritor to interfere in other countries' affairs.  Now the table is turned. 

The west and its chief magnet of power - the US - has good reasons to be unhappy. 


Things are happening in Bangladesh, Myanmar and also Manipur in India. Think of the crisis in these three places -- the basic issue is 'essentially basic and looks innocent', says one expert in Delhi.

"But things have spread..... and people are being killed," he adds. 

I raised the issue with about the on-going "ethnic conflict" in Manipur with former chief of Eastern Command of Indian army, Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd). 


He waxed eloquently -- "It’s not easy and so simple to give a solution (to problems in Manipur) in a few sentences because the hidden game being played by inimical forces is much bigger than what is seen on the ground".  



Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd) 



Importantly, he also stated:  "What we are seeing in Manipur is the 5th Generation warfare being carried out against India. It is not simply an ethnic conflict as many believe..... Manipur today is caught in the crossfire of a larger international power play taking place in the region". 



Points well taken ! Focus General Abhay Krishna's argument on the context of what has been stated elsewhere (supposedly an expert view) --  


"Whatever situation is unfolding since last over two years , be it ongoing Russia -Ukrain war, Israel -Hamas war, which is now expanding to other parts of Middle East, turbulent situation prevailing in Pakistan, Change of Govt in Bangladesh and ongoing violence, civil war in Myanmar and our turbulent NE especially Manipur are indicating towards a bigger game to choking 

..... all trade routes of Russia, China and Iran, thereby, cripple their economy which had started to turn very strong since last over a decade. 


Hence a simple message as of now Narendra Modi and his strategic and diplomatic team will have to be cautious. 



Namo with Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval 











  

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