Myanmar may not be India's friend per se - rich or poor. But it is a vital neighbour. Myanmar was long neglected by the Indian policy makers in the foreign policy engine room. But for last decade things changed.
The Modi government has given due importance to both Myanmar as well as the influential bloc ASEAN.
India shares a 1,643 km-long border with Myanmar. So, it will be a fallacy to ignore the nation - either democracy or without democracy ! New Delhi has to balance security concerns regarding cross-border militancy and illegal activities by maintaining relations with Myanmar’s military regime.
It's a pivotal land bridge between India and other ASEAN countries, and its stability (relevance) is crucial for New Delhi's regional interests as well. The Act East Policy of the Modi Govt ought to be understood from this perspective.
New Delhi is reportedly taking up the task of 'broader engagements' with various stakeholders in Myanmar, which would help it safeguard its strategic interests.
New Delhi may also play a key role to bring peace and stability in Myanmar.
The effectiveness of this strategy will depend on the evolving undercurrents within Myanmar and India’s ability to engage meaningfully.
The problem is complex and there are multiple players with several layers. The phrase 'wheels within wheels' do work here.
As a bloc, the ASEAN and as a nation and emerging regional and global power India will need to adopt a more inclusive and pragmatic approach towards Myanmar.
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| Blogger on border line: Nagaland (India) and Myanmar |
Going beyond Myanmar, India is involved in regional connectivity projects such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway to enhance trade and connectivity.
Both the countries have signed five Memorandums of Understanding under the Quick Impact Projects framework, focusing on agricultural development, vocational training, disaster management, and education.
With India’s $250,000 grant, these projects aim to enhance Myanmar’s socio-economic development, but Myanmar’s political instability will likely challenge its success.
"The Government of India bhi pagla na hoe....(The Government of India cannot be so irrational)," a senior Nagaland politician said in Longwa region of Mon district when the Central government decided to enforce bordersealing.
The explanation was that - there are some emerging security issues especially in the context of developments in Myanmar after the 2021 coup.
There have been substantial number of Myanmarese citizens including junta army personnel who have sneaked into Mizoram and Manipur between 2022 and 2023.
On Feb 16, 2024 at Yangon, there were over 1000 Myanmarese youths lined up at the Thai embassy for paper works as young people sought to leave Myanmar after the junta said it would impose military service.
On Feb 14, the junta said that it would recruit 60,000 young men and women for military service under the "Conscription law".
Myanmar's military said it would enforce the law that says men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 have to serve for at least two years (under junta) as it struggles to quell opposition to the 2021 coup.
The junta is facing widespread armed resistance to its rule after seizing power from the elected civilian government.
Recently it suffered a series of stunning losses to an armed alliance of ethnic minority groups in various parts of the country.
The Govt of India has decided to enforce border fencing and the move is being opposed by locals in Mizoram and Nagaland mainly.
A number of indigenous people organisation leaders met in Dimapur in Nagaland on Feb 16 (2024) and resolved to oppose border fencing and the scrapping of FMR.
The organisations wrote a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said, "The decision to do away with the Free Movement Regime (FMR) and erect border fencing is not only impractical and dehumanizing to the communities living on both sides of the border but, such an approach may only diminish the prospects for peace and well being in the restive region.”
But in a broader sense vis-a-vis ASEAN, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasised ASEAN’s centrality and the Five-Point Consensus while encouraging continued engagement with Myanmar.
In the ultimate analysis, the importance of northeast India and Myanmar as India's neighbour has certainly increased.
Some years back, strategists have also given importance to Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) forum. But somehow, no much headway was made on this.
ends
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