Modi plays OBC trump card .... stumps RJD mascot Tejashwi ..... Akhilesh also faces heat in Mainpuri-Firozabad belt

This is called the Master Card for at least 100 seats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at Munger in Bihar:  

“Today the fight in Bihar is between the ‘Santushtikaran model’ of the NDA versus the 'Tushtikaran model' of the INDI alliance". (while BJP fights for satisfactory for all, INDI alliance is back with appeasement card).

Modi urged the media to raise awareness about this issue and criticized the INDI alliance government (earlier UPA) for its divisive policies. 

“Today, another old video of Manmohan Singh has surfaced where he is again saying that Muslims have the first right to the country's resources. I urge the media to make people aware of this video and discuss it. 

The country should also know what mentality the Indian coalition government has been running the country for 10 years.” 

By pointing out the manner Muslim sub quota was created out of the OBC quota, the Prime Minister has able to do the 'impossible'. He has divided RJD mascot's MY card.

M and Y now stand divided. 

This has predictably upset Tejashwi and therefore, the RJD leadership has gone silent. 

Bihar has done away with nine seats in first two phases and it is presumed, Modi's OBC card with the explanation that 'Muslims' would be favoured by the I.N.D.I alliance if voted to power will certainly scare away the Yadav and other OBC voters.

In Uttar Pradesh, the third phase of polling on May 7 will be in key hubs dominated by Yadav voters for long and hence Modi has multiple birds by his Munger speech. The Akhilesh Yadav camp is also taken aback. In UP, which sends 80 MPs to Lok Sabha, already the Ram temple issue had given the BJP a head-start and now this new 'OBC card' by the Prime Minister linking it to Muslims will make further dent.

The upper caste Hindus voted generally voted against those who swear to help Muslims. The Dalits and Yadavs might be thinking otherwise; and did not mind parties such as RJD and the Samajwadi; but now -- the divisions in 'MY' forte would leave both the RJD and Samajwadi Party devastated.

As it is RJD drew a blank in 2019 Lok Sabha polls when the BJP-JD(U) combo made for 39 seats and only one seat Kishanganj had gone to the Congress. Interestingly in the first phase of polls in Bihar, it was given to understand that the RJD and its associates might do well.

Tejashwai also attracted huge crowds but PM's OBC card will now make things much more tougher for the leadership in both the Samajwadi and the RJD. 

Polls in 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh ... to decide many things ... 'march to Delhi is always possible via UP and the erstwhile Yadav land'

In Uttar Pradesh, 10 constituencies will go to polls for phase 3. 

Agra, Aonla, Badaun, Bareilly, Etah, Fatehpur Sikri, 

Firozabad, Hathras, Mainpuri, Sambhal  

In Hathras, a gangrape made news in 2020. But in 2024, even the Samajwadi Party which is campaigning on women’s safety, among other issues against Yogi Adityanath and the BJP  is not talking about the rape and death for fear of 'antagonising' the substantial upper caste vote in this reserved SC seat.

Change of heart.....change of candidates ...belated wisdom ??

 The Samajwadi Party (SP) that is contesting 62 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh has changed candidates in 10 of the constituencies to date, including twice in as many days.

SP president Akhilesh Yadav himself replaced his nephew Tej Pratap Yadav as the candidate from the party stronghold of Kannauj on Thursday, three days after Tej Pratap’s candidature was announced. On Friday, during scrutiny of nomination papers, the party’s Shahjahanpur candidate Rajesh Kashyap, who filed his documents on April 22 said he came to know that the SP had cancelled his name and instead fielded a candidate whose maternal uncle is an MLC.

Akhilesh Yadav had 'picked' a few leaders to contest the elections based on caste equations etc, but, they were not necessarily backed by the SP leadership in the district units. 

For instance, there are at least 15 people who have come from BSP in the last couple of years. They have also been given tickets by the SP. Now, when these outsiders are declared candidates, the party’s local leadership opposes them and the president is forced to change the nominees. 

In Kannauj, the local leadership started opposing Tej Pratap’s candidature.”

Mainpuri - welcome to the Yadav heartland.Mulayam Singh Yadav won from the constituency in 1996 to become India'sDefence Minister under H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral. Since then, this is afamily bastion. In 2022 by-poll after Mulayam's death the seat was won by his daughter-in-law Ms Dimple. 

The lawmaker wife of Samajwadi Party chiefis not a Yadav by birth; but that's not the issue and hence she has been fieldedagain. This is one seat -- the BJP may not struggle to wrest amid a hyped Ram Mandircampaign. 

No candidate in Hathras is openly speaking about the gory incident. While the BJP has fielded state Revenue Minister Anoop Pradhan Valmiki, the other candidates include the Samajwadi Party’s (SP’s) Jasveer Valmiki and the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP’s) Hembaboo Dhangar.

 

The Dalits and Thakurs number an even 3 lakh each in the Hathras Lok Sabha seat, followed by 2 lakh Brahmins, 2 lakh Vaishyas and 80,000 Muslims. The upper caste votes, apart from the support for it by non-Jatav Dalits, mean the seat has long been a BJP bastion.   

The party has won Hathras consecutively since 1991 – in 2009, the RLD won here as a BJP ally. The BSP finished runner-up in each poll between 1996 and 2014. In 2019, when the SP and BSP were allies, the SP’s candidate here was placed second. (Indian Express) 

A few Dalit families in the village are all relatives of the victim. The rest of the village comprises upper-caste Thakurs and Brahmins, and Other Backward Class (OBC) Prajapatis.

Thakurs, who are the dominant community in the village, continue to stand by the accused. Guddu Singh, the father of the main accused Sandeep, says he is a BJP voter and that the allegations against his son are “fake”. “Upper castes here were upset with (then) BJP MP Rajveer Diler because he met the victim’s family. He was a gentleman but got the names of three others included in the case under pressure from his own (Dalit) community. I believe that this is the reason the BJP denied him a ticket,” Guddu says.

Voting in 190 seats over :::: If BJP gains a few in Tamil Nadu and Kerala and Congress wins a few in Rajasthan, game is exciting :::: Hindutva matters ....... Moditva is about the direction India is moving .... Hindus should not be discriminated !!

Narendra Modi is a dynamic leader who is giving Bharat, that is India, a new image and earning respect around the world for every Indian. 

International recognition of India as a great emerging world power and being courted by world leaders is crucial. 

The voting turnout is being debated and pundits are rather in hurry to say that the less turnout does not mean good for the BJP. Such theories may not work at all. 

In the second phase of voting on April 26, the Congress sweat it out to retain 19 seats it won last time and mostly from Kerala. In contrast, the BJP had 55 in its kitty in 2019.  In Kerala, the Congress is bound to lose a few and the seats may go to the CPI-M and possibly a few for the BJP. 

There were 88 seats for the grabs on April 26 and the BJP is set to retain the hold and if lucky may pick up a couple of seats in Kerala. Of course, there are talks of Congress gaining a few in Rajasthan. For the time being, such a scenario should not be dismissed. 

Why BJP wins and why Narendra Modi matters? It's essentially because polls are also being held on three critical premises -- Hindus should not be discriminated and so Hindutva matters even if it need be crude and typically revolving around Muslim-bashin .......  and thirdly Moditva is about the direction India is moving in the comity of nations.

Now making scrutiny and analysis of finer points one can say Ram temple is an important issue. Is it a match winner alone -- it maybe and it may not be as well. With Ram temple, the BJP needs other items in the package - the development and also the national prestige. 

This is an area, the Modi government's detractors will also give in. 

The hyped discussion that the Congress is still a fighting outfit is actually a gambit more pushed by the eco system. It is a battle fought and won mostly in social media and on TV channels. On ground, the Congress workers have done  vanishing act long back. 

The BJP government under the leadership of Modi is important because they have bigger goals for the country. Tt is about the 'direction' in which the country is going.  It means enhanced national prestige as most blocs and countries today cannot do their business (strategic and market) without India. 

"Hindus have been discriminated against ...  and so the only hope is Modi," said  a voter in Meerut. 

Blogger 

Of course, the BJP’s campaign has also pushed a narrative of economic growth.

"No prime minister before Narendra Modi made economics not only about good governance but equally about establishing a connect with India’s deep-rooted spiritual and cultural legacy. After waiting for centuries, Ram Lalla has now been enshrined in his grand temple...," says BJP spokesperson Sanju Verma.  She further says:

"India emerged as the fastest-growing major economy, consistently maintaining a growth rate of over 7 per cent for 3 years in a row and in fact, growing at 9.1 per cent in FY22. India became the first country to hoist its flag on the southern pole of the Moon and successfully launched the Aditya Mission". 

Of course Modi’s own personal popularity as a strongman populist leader has also played a central role. 

("The BJP’s central campaign message is “Modi ki guarantee” [Modi’s guarantee] – a nod to the cult of personality that has built up around him over the past decade,"-  The Guardian)

64 per cent turnout in second phase ::: Focus shifts to third phase of voting - May 7 ::: UP has key 10 seats, Maharashtra 11, Gujarat 25, West Bengal - 4

Nearly half of Bengaluru's voters stayed away....  

Tripura recorded highest voter turnout in phase 2 of Lok Sabha polls. 

"Hindus have been discriminated against for a long time, and the only hope for us is Modi. Therefore Arun Govil should win in Meerut," says a retired bank official Roop Bhashin. 

"Rahul Gandhi, a former leader in the Congress party who lost the past two elections to Modi, recently called the upcoming election a “rigged match”, describing the fight against the BJP as a fight for “India’s democracy and constitution”. -- The Guardian

Accounting for two phases of polling, the total voter turnout for all the 25 seats of Rajasthan was tentatively recorded at 61.60%. 

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections elections, the voter turnout stood at 63.02% in the state.

Voters queue in Darrang district of Assam  

"Whether the BJP will be able to win the same strong majority as in 2019 remains uncertain. But in Meerut, the reverential status many in India have attached to their prime minister was vividly on display. 

Some called for him (Modi) to rule India for the next 50 years, others spoke of him as an almost holy figure. Many wore masks of his face," - 

The Guardian (London) 

A voter turnout of 73.05% was recorded in Chhattisgarh , while West Bengal saw 71.84% polling.

East Tripura seat up for grabs in this phase recorded the highest turnout of 79.46%. 

Outer Manipur saw 77.32% voter turnout. 

 Phase 2:  Voting took place in 88 constituencies

89 constituencies were expected to vote in this phase. Polling in Betul, Madhya Pradesh, was rescheduled after the death of a candidate from Mayawati's BSP

63% Turnout 

Polling for the second phase was held for 20 seats in Kerala, 14 seats in Karnataka, 13 in Rajasthan, eight each in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, seven in Madhya Pradesh, five each in Assam and Bihar, three each in Bengal and Chhattisgarh and one each in Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur and Tripura. 63% voting was recorded in this phase.

Rahul and Grand-mom 

Blogger ::: On the move 

Karnataka's 14 constituencies that went to the polls on Friday saw a 69.23 % voter turnout, according to the Election Commission. But in the three urban constituencies of Bengaluru, nearly half the voters kept away.

The approximate voter turnout in Bangalore Central was 52.81%, 

Bangalore North - 54.42% and Bangalore South - 53.15%. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the turnout in Bengaluru Central was 54.32% , Bengaluru North - 54.76% and Bengaluru South - 53.70%.

The Jammu parliamentary constituency saw peaceful polling and recorded nearly 72% voter turnout on Friday. In the the last general election, 74% voters exercised their franchise.

Focus shifts to third phase of voting - May 7   

In Uttar Pradesh, 10 constituencies will go to polls for phase 3. 

Agra, Aonla, Badaun, Bareilly, Etah, Fatehpur Sikri, 

Firozabad, Hathras, Mainpuri, Sambhal  

Jangipur, Maldaha Dakshin, Maldaha Uttar, and Murshidabad will go to the polls on My 7

While surveys show Modi to be India’s most popular political leader by a wide margin, political opponents have also accused the government of “skewing the pitch” of the election and eroding the integrity of India’s democracy and its electoral processes.

Critics allege that the BJP government has systematically used tools of the state to go after and jail political opponents and undermined the independence of key state institutions such as the election commission – which oversees and enforces election rules – and the judiciary, charges the government denies, says 'The Guardian'.

The BJP government is also accused of eroding the freedom of the press and attempting to suppress critical media. India’s press freedom ranking has fallen by more than 20 places since Modi came to power in 2014.

Why Congress has blown away the chance 'to fight' ::::: Congress and Opposition to 'lose seats' in Phase-2 due to Sam Pitroda's statement on Inheritance Tax Act

(Rahul Gandhi has committed a blunder. His new French revolution and Robinhood style approach.... has antagnoised the Haves including a growing army of Middle Class. At the same - have-not are not much excited either.) 

 Congress has embraced Urban Naxal ideas and in the process undermined the economic journey vis-a-vis Liberalisation policy of P V Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh. 

Rahul Gandhi is talking the language of  1960s -- when Indians were generally poor and generally lower middleclass. Today except those below the poverty line and marginalised, most Indians are on upper trajectory -- especially last three decades -- that is Economic Liberalisation of 1991. 

A large number of people have benefited by economic policies being pursued since 1991 -- irrespective of the fact who ever has been the Prime Minister. Congress once benefited by 'Garibi Hatao' slogan in the 1970s. Sonia Gandhi also benefited and 'saved' Congress in 2004  its campaign line 'Aam aadmi ke Haath, Congress ke Saath'. Pitted against Congress slogan was 'India Shining' and it boomeranged on the Vaipayee government. 

But it is important to note that Sonia's election pledge of 2004 -- guided by the likes of Pranab Mukherjee - were different. There were some alternative progammes suggested and after coming to power -- we saw NREGA.  One may call it a scheme to dig holes -- but nevertheless it made a sense for a section of poor people especially in rural India. NREGA was a scheme piloted by the Rural Development Ministry.  But Rahul Gandhi is guided by a NGO-club with Jairam Ramesh as the nucleus. 

This man was Union Rural Development ministry during UPA-2 and he made a mess of things. Today, Rahul is promising something foolish and dangerous. This will discourage people from hard work and innovation. In the name of helping poor, Rahul is bent upon keeping India 'backward'. 

Is this a Beijing inspiration -- that angle should have come out by now. But the BJP and its star campaigner are too busy with Muslim angle.  To top it came Sam Pitroda's remarks and hence in the second phase of polling -- Congress has perhaps lost out some seats -- it should have won. 

If  Danish Ali loses out Amroha seat in Uttar Pradesh (that went for voting on April 26), the Congress may regret Sam's comment. Danish Ali had won the seat in 2019 on BSP ticket and this time he had shifted to Congress and he could have sprang a surprise. But this is probably not happening. 

Blogger: Playing an analyst's cards 

These will be reflected in Kerala and Karnataka polls also. Out of 14 seats BJP contested on April 26 in Karnataka, ideally the Congress could have fought 10 seats effectively. But probably yet again, this has not happened. At best the BJP seats in Karnataka may drop by 3-4 seats.  

One may hate Narendra Modi, but he has created an aspirational India. In the sixties and seventies -- it was a different story. The rivalry was to be 'envious' in negative sense and not competition. 

Today even housemaid's children in Delhi or Mumbai aspire to study science or even medical courses. Even they will not be interested in a party that is trying to play Robinhood - rob the rich or (Hindu rich) and give it away to poor -- or only the 'poor Muslims'. 

"Meri bhi ijjat hae (I also have self-respect)," is the refrain of a housemaid in Delhi -- whose monthly income is around Rs 25,000 to Rs 30,000 monthly.  

But Rahul is a man in a hurry. He want short cuts and the likes of Jairam Ramesh did not advise anything different. 

Congress is 'serial offender' about Inheritance Tax .... while Rajiv "inherited" Indira's properties ..... even in 2023 Chidambaram favoured it, UPA sent a proposal to Planning Commission

The idea of reimposing such a tax was first mentioned by Home Minister P Chidambaram in 2011 during a Planning Commission (now Niti Aayog) meeting chaired by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Chidambaram was the finance minister during the first four years of the UPA-I government.

Chidambaram had mooted the idea in a bid to raise tax resources and shore up the declining tax to GDP ratio. A year later, he raised the matter again at a National Institute of Public Finance and Policy event. Chidambaram said it was high time for an inheritance tax while flagging the accumulation of wealth in the hands of a few.

"Have we paid little attention to accumulation of wealth in a few hands? I am still hesitant to talk about inter-generational equity and therefore inheritance tax," he said.

The idea made a comeback in 2013, when Chidambaram presented the last full Budget of the UPA-2 government. In fact, Chidambaram was convinced that an inheritance tax could raise revenue while serving the UPA's political purpose.

However, not everyone in the Cabinet as well as stakeholders were convinced of the logic of an inheritance tax, and it never made its way to the Budget.

The matter went into cold storage as the Narendra Modi-led NDA government won the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

In 2014, Jayant Sinha, then Minister of State for Finance, had publicly vouched for the introduction of inheritance tax. Sinha had said such a tax would take away some of the advantages that dynastic business people had and help in levelling the playing field. BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya endorsed Sinha's views. 

Inheritance tax is prevalent in countries like the UK, Japan, France, and Finland. In the United States, only six states have inheritance tax.

The story of an inheritance tax in India goes back seven decades. In 1953, Parliament, then led by prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, passed a legislation, bringing into force the Estate Duty Act, which was conceived with the aim of reducing glaring economic disparity in a nascent country just six years into Independence. 

Estate duty was imposed on the total value of property held by an individual at the time of their demise, with 40% the maximum marginal rate levied on property exceeding the value of ₹50 lakh. 

Under the act, the tax had to be paid by heirs when they inherited property or assets — both movable and immovable — that were passed on to them.

Delhi High Court blasts Arvind Kejriwal for not resigning as Chief Minister after his arrest

 The Delhi High Court on Friday came down heavily on Arvind Kejriwal for not resigning as the Chief Minister. The court said that Arvind Kejriwal put personal interest over national interest by not resigning as Chief Minister after his arrest.

The court hit out at the AAP-led Delhi government in Delhi, saying that it was “only interested in power”. Arvind Kejriwal was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate last month in connection with Delhi liquor policy case.

The court pulled up the Delhi government over non-availability of textbooks and uniforms for students enroled in government schools.

The court said that the Delhi government was least bothered about students not having books. "Your client is just interested in power. I don’t know how much power do you want," the court said.

On last occasion, the High Court had said that there cannot be a vacuum and if the Standing Committee is not available for any reason, the financial power needs to be delegated forthwith to an appropriate authority by the GNCTD (Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi).

This was after the MCD Commissioner had pointed out that one of the major reasons for non- distribution of notebooks, stationery items, uniforms and school bags is ‘non-formation of Standing Committees’. He’d further stated that only the Standing Committee has the power and jurisdiction to award contracts worth more than five crores.