If Exit polls make sense and turns out to be a reality -- the Big Picture takeaway is -- Namo has emerged with his clout and India arrived at the international stage

Poll analyst Prashant Kishor has asked the public to not waste their "valuable" time on "fake journalists", "loudmouth politicians" and social media experts after exit polls projected a landslide victory for BJP-led NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Some years back, people across the globe could have asked -- Has India/Bharat arrived at the international stage? 

Today, the tone would be more assertive. Narendra Modi has emerged and one statement of assertion is Bharat has arrived at the international stage. 

Do not forget, if Modi makes a hat-trick -- he is not only defeating political rivals -- he is also able to defeat a sinister global media campaign and a notorious perception that he promoted divisions.

If the mandate is this -- 360 plus seats for his saffron outfit -- he is a unifying factor and the common Indians including Muslims have voted for him. Well Muslims - whom many held responsible for partition - could have voted 60-70 per cent for Congress and other opposition parties such as Trinamool Congress and Samajwadi Party in respective states -- it is no mean achievement that an estimated 10-14 per cent of Muslims especially women have voted for him. 

"Exit polls predicts LDF to get just 29 percent votes for LDF in Kerala. Just 2 percent ahead of BJP. That means BJP vote share has a jump of 12 percent and LDF losing almost 10 percent. Hindu voters shifting to BJP atleast for Loksabha polls," says analyst M Mohan. 

"The most important factor of this shift is the ban on PFI which made Hindus in Kerala feel safer. Thanks to NIA for their surgical raids against PFI leaders."

Mohan also says: "Another reason for LDF vote shrinking is the son in law factor. By making his Muslim son-in-law PA Mohamed Riyas, (Kerala's PWD minister) a minister and sidelining senior leaders, Pinarayi Vijayan had annoyed the Hindu vote bank of CPI-M".

One Varanasi-based analyst rightly puts -- "Many Indians may not like Narendra Modi per se....but everyone is endorsing the shift of Indian politics... There is a greater realisation now that Modi's opponents have serious credibility issues except within the ecosystem of a select type of elites and so-called Left liberals". 

Modi is already a figure -- who will be remembered in history. And yet at 73 he remains a self-made man --- the man of the MOMENT and his arrival and emergence and evolution after a decade is a unique historic achievement.  

According to BJP leader Guru Prakash, "There have been prime ministers in the country’s past who have served longer terms. But both as chief minister and prime minister, Narendra Modi will become one of the most popular and undefeated elected executive leaders in the history of Indian politics".  

In the context of geographies - old and new - captured by the BJP and those charmed by the Modi phenomenon is -- in north east he has emerged a great phenomenon who has able to integrate the far-flung region with the rest of India far better than what was achieved in six decades of Congress rule. 

Freebies politics, mindless populism at times and a policy that encouraged economic disaster have been rejected by the people including in the north east. 

The single biggest failure of Congress in the north east has been its failure to 'integrate' the people of the region with the national mainstream and the vice versa. And there was a reason for this. It was due to Congress policy of appeasement. The Congress appeased and invested a lot in wooing the wrong doers. 

Essentially -- India bashing was allowed.

Corruption was shown something that will continue for ever and a normal thing. Innocuous tribals were spoiled. Under Modi -- no one can say it is a perfect world there in the northeast -- but many corrective steps are on auto mode now. In 2022, Modi's innovative 'Har Ghar Tiranga' was a great show that will have a long term achievement. 

 Darbari Lal, 90, leaves after casting his vote at a polling station during the seventh and last phase of the general election, in Faridkot district, Punjab, India, June 1, 2024.—Reuters snap/ media 

In terms of governance and his leadership, people appreciate the fact that after a long time -- something that was over due -- the country was seeking a man who could take on bureaucracy and make it work to solve people's issues and challenges.  

BJP leader Guru Prakash further writes in 'Indian Express'  -- "The BJP has been in power in Karnataka and is a part of the ruling dispensation in Puducherry. 

"The party has a substantial number of MPs from Karnataka and Telangana. For the first time in our history, we have a Finance and Foreign Minister from Tamil Nadu and the Sengol adorns the new Parliament building. 

The BJP has established a strong presence south of the Vindhyas. Therefore, these exit poll results and those on June 4 will usher the BJP into the South as a potential alternative." 

Finally, an honest analysis of 2024 Mandate would make it amply clear that no single factor has contributed to Modi's win. The Prime Minister worked hard. led a team and in many places brought in results from structural challenges. For Congress on the other hand - no single factor has contributed more to the downfall of Congress party in these elections than Rahul Gandhi and his flirting with failures and arrogance. 

 

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