New Delhi
Narendra Modi was on Sunday, June 9, 2024 sworn in as the Prime Minister of Hindu-majority India yet again -- for the third consecutive term.
This is truly a major milestone as he has become the second Indian leader to get the distinction of scoring the hat-trick. The first and the only Indian Prime Minister to achieve that was country's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
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But the achievement has been marred by multiple caveats and in more ways than one. Modi's aura of invincibility in electoral politics that prevailed for the last decade since 2014 may be on the wane.
In fact, Modi is holding a public office for the last 23 years as prior to becoming India's Prime Minister, he was Chief Minister of one of the developed Indian states - Gujarat. But in this year's fiercely contested polls that ended after six weeks amid intense heat and dust of Indian summer threw up a mandate wherein Modi-led ruling alliance could muster the majority numbers.
But his own party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s strength nosedived significantlycfrom 303 (in 2019) to 240.
The magic number in Indian parliament to form a government is 272 and hence Modi will be depended on alliance partners -- two mercurial provincial parties Telugu Desam Party from Andhra Pradesh and Janata Dal - U (Unified people's party) from development-starved state of Bihar.
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| Akhilesh Yadav: Great challenger in UP |
Narendra Modi’s new term as prime minister is, therefore, likely to be fraught with challenges and pushes and pulls and political blackmail by these two alliance partners and a handful of others.
The main apprehension among religious minority leaders and a section of Left-liberals has been that the BJP could change the constitution to discard the parliamentary system.
Now as the mandate came, analysts say India has fought back to save democracy.
"In the ultimate analysis it is the triumph of Indian democracy. It's the victory of the will of the faceless Indian voters. None can blame the EVMs. None can talk about political machinations by Modi's powerful Home Minister Amit Shah. None can say raids by tax officials and arrests played a part in the elections," says analyst Ashutosh Talukdar in Guwahati in Assam.
The province of tea-garden rich Assam falls in the north east part of India -- the hub of a largenumber of tribal Christians such as Mizos, Nagas and Khasis.
In three Christian-majority states of Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram, BJP's allies NDPP, NPP and Mizo National Front (MNF) respectively were humbled.
"The mandate in 2024 was crystal clear. It was a vote against Narendra Modi, against BJP and against the RSS scheme of things. .....People were angry over Manipur violence, churches were burnt in the name of ethnic clashes. In Assam, the BJP government piloted the Healing (Prevention of Evil) Practices Bill. It was against Christians," newly elected Congress MP from Nagaland, Supongmeren Jamir, told this journalist.
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| Supong with his party colleagues in Nagaland |
However, analyst Vidyarthi Kumar says, "It is unfair to mock Modi just because his numbers came down. He is probably the only leader in a democratic set up at the global stage who is able to fight the anti-incumbency factor after 10 years in office and that too post-Covid".
Agrees, a senior Naga Christian BJP leader M Chuba Ao.
He said the 'unexpected outcome' of India’s election has reasserted the unpredictable nature of the politics itself – "but it is the resilience of Indian democracy"
He says, "Elections are meant to throw up surprises and the mandate 2024 by itself is a test case to argue that the Indian democracy is alive, vibrant and not vulnerable to be misused".
Of course, the vibrancy of Indian democracy was proved in the mandate itself. In some states, the BJP suffered unexpectedly and in some the table was turned and Modi's outfit and alliance swept the polls.
The public mood in a vast country ultimately is unpredictable and that's the essence and beauty of democracy.
The mandate messages are multiple and complex. If the Odisha scenario is taken, here BJP won 20 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats also dethroned an aging leader Naveen Patnaik - who was Chief Minister of the province for the last 24 years.
On the contrary, if 80-MPs strong Uttar Pradesh is considered, the mandate absolutely belonged to the opposition camp, especially the alliance between socialist Samajwadi and the grand old party Congress.
UP was responsible for BJP's win in 2014 and 2019 when it had won 71 and 62 seats respectively. But in 2024, the tally dropped.
Yet again, if West Bengal was India -- the day belonged to another regional leader Mamata Banerjee and her politics of freebies and alleged minority/Muslim appeasement.
The mandate has also revived the old and ugly caste divisions among Hindus. And for Muslims, they united solidly against the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
This leaves a scope that Hindu polarisation can also happen next time around.
Now in terms of governance, Modi's reduced parliamentary strength could delay and even derail reform process that was expected otherwise if PM Modi's government had won an enhanced mandate.
"Modi projected a self image of a Hindu-nationalist, an industry friendly catalyst for development, someone who initiated an uniform tax structure and a man who would not compromise with the ideologies of his Hindutva roots.
In the past, all these have paid dividends but in 2024,people wanted to enforce more accountability on freedom of expression," says Tushar Bhadra in Varanasi.
In fact, Bhadra says the reform strategies and Modi's jingoism in foreign policy like India's refusal to condemn Russia's attack on Ukraine would get diluted for the time being.
But the Indians in general and minorities and Muslims have heaved a sigh of relief as of now.
Foreign dignitaries, world leaders and others have complimented India and pledged to keep the friendship with Modi. And one reason for this is the vast Indian market and its strategic position vis-a-vis the US and western countries' plans to counter China.
Nepali PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mauritius PM Pravind Jugnauth and Vice President of Seychelles Ahmed Afif attended the oath ceremony of Modi.
Even the likes of Elon Musk and Bill Gates have lauded Modi.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates tweeted:,
"Congratulations to Narendra Modi on winning a third term as Prime Minister. You have strengthened India's position as a source of innovation for global progress in sectors like health, agriculture, women-led development, and digital transformation. Look forward to a continued partnership".
With or without Modi, the BJP nevertheless has proven itself to be a force to be reckoned with.
The Congress Party, which has led most governments in India’s post-independence history, won less than half the seats (99) than what the BJP secured (240).
Modi himself said in the last three elections 2014, 2019 and 2024 -- the total seats wonby Congress 44, 52 and 99 make it to only 195 and it is still below 240.
Asutosh Talukdar sums up the paradox, "The mandate 2024 has given a great scope to opposition and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to fight back with a wall on the back. But though the BJP's strength is reduced; it is here to stay".
In Modi's new cabinet various socio-religious equations have also been factored.
Out of 71 ministers, 27 hail from the Other Backward Class (OBC), 10 from Dalits or the Scheduled Caste (SC), 5 are tribals and 5 from the minority community.
The five ministers from religious minority communities who took oath on Sunday are Kiren Rijiju, Hardeep Puri, both cabinet ministers, and three junior ministers Ravneet Singh Bittu, George Kurien and Ramdas Athwale.
Among them two are Sikhs and one Christian. Athawaley is a Buddhist and Rijiju follows a traditional tribal religion Donyi Polo from Arunachal Pradesh.
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