Why BJP debacle?
New Delhi
In the ultimate analysis it is the triumph of Indian democracy.
Now, none can blame the EVMs. None can talk about Chanakya -- that is
Amit Shah's machinations. None can say Enforcement Directorate raids and arrests
played a part in the elections.
It's the victory of the will of the faceless Indian voters.
The Ram Temple was achieved but BJP's tally has fallen far behind the required 272 mark – that is the half-away mark in the Lok Sabha.
The 'civilisational hero' that Narendra Modi has been titled after Jan 22, 2024 could not do the trick.
Is it the sad end to a brilliant career of a man who liked to be called
a Chae-wallah but someone who had claimed he has been God-sent to set things
in a country where there are scores of lapses and loopholes ?
How does one look back at BJP's poor performance in its own state of strength?
- Uttar Pradesh? This was the state where Modi, his trusted aide and 'power before the throne' Amit Shah had hoped to register a clean sweep.
This was the state which gave BJP 71 plus two (73 seats) in Uttar Pradesh and helped Modi become the Prime Minister first time in 214.
In 2019, his party won 62 and the ally Apna Dal has two.
One attribute for BJP's unthinkable debacle in Uttar Pradesh is the faulty
ticket distribution. There was enough heartburn but many thought things would
be managed in the name of Namo -- the chief vote getter for the party.
The story looks dismal for the BJP. The saffron party's strength came down to 34.
Samajwadi Party was the winner -- 36 seats and its alliance partner Congress got 7 seats. BJP's allies RLD got 2 and Apna Dal (Soneylal) one.
Some of these figures especially for Samajwadi Party was perhaps
unthinkable even for Akhilesh Yadav -- who was almost facing
existential crisis.
In West Bengal, multiple factors did the trick. Mamata Banerjee's
personal popularity and politics of freebies and 'Muslim appeasement'
did the damage for the saffron party when there was everything going
in their favour.
Even the issue of corruption and recovery of huge cash did not help the Lotus party.
TMC won 29 -- a significant jump from 2019
tally and BJP's tally has nosedived from 18 in 2019 to 12 in 2024. BJP could not do well in Rajasthan and Karnataka as well where Modi's personal charm ideally should have favoured it.
In Rajasthan - the BJP's tally came down while Congress figures jumped. from zero to 8. In last two Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had swept to win all 25 seats and thus things stood at a saturation point.
In Karnataka even as the BJP lost power in 2023 assembly elections; it was expected the party would do well. But that was not the case.However, in two Deccan states – incidentally both Telugu speaking, the BJP Performance has been exemplary.
The BJP reaped the benefits of alliance with N Chandrababu-led TDP and the NDA tally was 21 from Andhra Pradesh.
There are in general some common factors those contributed to BJP's rout especially in Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
"Modi's claim and single-point slogan that he will win 400 seats was misinterpreted in some quarters as a move to finish off reservation. This made OBC and even SC voters unite behind Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh and Congress," says analyst Vidyarthi Kumar.
In Varanasi, political commentator Tushar Bhadra says, "The agrarian unrest did not impact Yogi Adityanath's assembly elections in 2022. But this time, sadly for Modi it did with a vengeance".
Moreover, the Modi-Amit Shah duo has sidelined some senior leaders such as Vasundhara Raje Scindia, a popular former CM in Rajasthan, and perhaps this affected party's fate at a crucial juncture.
There is also a common factor between Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress and its the rock solid Muslim support.
The verdict has paradoxical angles. The Hindutva politics and Ram temple in Uttar Pradesh resulted in Muslim consolidation in favour of Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul alliance and in West Bengal while the CAA card did not yield dividends to the BJP; there was Muslim consolidation in favour of Mamata.
Political lessons
# - Indira Gandhi had taken the competitive and the political route far more than what was needed. ... She actually had got lost in the detail of trying to not just control the party but to be the party. The same 'issue' almost harmed Modi too.
Ends
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