Congress revival ... to be and not to be .... Maybe it has happened somewhat .... but is the elation justified ? How Congress is placed electorally on its own?

The Congress revival is the talk of the town. But there are skeptics and they caution that elation is not necessary.

In short things are too early. There was a time -- even a fortnight ago when the grapevine used to be -- What's Congress party without dynasty? (D ... for Rahul !!)

And now - skeptics are yet again stating - things are premature; and hence the question they ask is -- What is Congress party without alliance partner and regional friends?  

The joke went – Rahul has resigned in his letter to Rahul and Rahul had consulted Rahul to finally decide that Rahul’s resignation should not be accepted and Rahul would continue to be the chief. 

This was in 2019. The reality is worse.  In 2022-23, Congress came out with a announcement called 'presidential election'. Shashi Tharoor jumped into the ring but then the word 'D' and subsequently it was clear Ashok Gehlot will get the place.

Modi bashing is just one part of the story !!

The then Rajasthan Chief Minister had other plans. Come what may, he declined to hand over the 'key' to Chief Minister's office to Sachin Pilot. This was his style of snub to the high command. The leadership agreed to retain him till the assembly polls in Nov 2023 and then Mallikarjun Kharge's name came up. It was neither love for an aging leader nor love for his Dalit caste !! 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Congress won total 99 seats, almost double its 2019 tally of 52.  'Ninety nine' marks are always tempting things for a student. 

Is Rahul Gandhi mistaking his 99 score with a student's mark sheet is anybody's guess ?

Notably, dozens of seats for Congress in 2024 polls came from states where it contested the polls in alliance with stronger regional parties. 

AAP in Delhi and DMK in Tamil Nadu are two striking examples. In Bihar and UP too - Congress took the cab ride via RJD and Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party.

So, do the results signify a Congress revival?

Yes and no - both. 

In Nagaland, Congress won the poll this time. Supongmeren Jamir put up a spirited fight and ultimately sailed home. In two consecutive assembly polls in the state - 2018 and 2023 -- the Congress score sheet has been zero. 

Hence, the Congress win against NDPP-BJP nominee is a semi revolutionary outcome -- if not a kind of people's revolt against the state government and the BJP in the centre. 

"Of course, the Congress has done well but the credit should go to the electorates of Nagaland who have demonstrated that the power lies only with the people in a democratic society. There is still scope and needs to improve performance," said S C Jamir, veteran Naga leader and former Nagaland CM and ex-Governor Gujarat.  

"The BJP was talking about a Congress-mukt Bharat and announcing that the party was dead. The Lok Sabha election results show the party is alive and kicking," says author and political commentator Rasheed Kidwai in 'India Today'. 

The sense of elation within the party could be because the Congress was fighting from a position of weakness. 

For the first time in its history, the Congress fielded less than 330 candidates in a general election. To bleed the BJP, it made sacrifices for its INDIA partners.

So, before looking into the number game....kindly observe what AAP said immediately after Lok Sabha polls -- they "will not do any tie up with the Congress in Delhi".

The AAP is leaking it wounds. It's leader Arvind Kejriwal is behind bars. It lost all seven seats it contested in Delhi.

In Punjab, the AAP suffered and the Congress gained its lost ground and also a few seats. 

Now, what do the numbers suggest?

"The arithmetic shows a Congress revival, but revival is a continuous process. The answer lies somewhere in between," political analyst Amitabh Tiwari tells India Today.In.

Now take three states a samples and see how Congress revival is far from truth.  

In Himachal Pradesh, it lost all four seats.

In Karnataka, the Congress has lost Lok Sabha polls in a way. And in Telangana where it captured power some months back, it could win only 8 seats -- equal to BJP.

That is  50%  or less than total seats of 17. So ?? 

The Congress revival is noteworthy in Maharashtra.

The results in Haryana and Rajasthan show that the OBCs, Muslims and Dalits have started voting for the grand old party again.

In Maharashtra it was at number three, and now it has become the No. 1 party.

But can it achieve the results without NCP stalwart Sharad Pawar ??

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Is it okay only to blame or give credit to Rahul Gandhi? 

Sonia Gandhi – an affectionate mother – with typical Indian Maa’s weakness for a son – is also to be blamed.

Her biggest folly was not allowing emergence of state leaders and younger generation leaders. Slowly she lost control in states such as Andhra Pradesh which was instrumental for the return of Congress to power in 2004 and also 2009.

Some years back, it was argued eloquently among Congress watchers that before reviving the party Sonia Gandhi ought to decide what role exactly her son would like to play. 

The enigma continues.

Poll expert Prashant Kishor sums up the paradox well. 

"If it would have been a pan-India revival of the Congress, the party would have done better in its strongholds," he pointed out. 

 

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