How many Nagas believe the next five years is going to be 'worse' than the past five or 10 years ?? ::::: Naga politics and Underground movement often worked in opposite directions and "human dimension" was neglected

Two Assam Rifles pesonnel attained martyrdom in an ambush near Nungshang Kong (Lungshang River) along National Highway-202 in Ukhrul district on Monday afternoon. 

Heavy gunfire and multiple explosions triggered panic among local residents and even farmers working in nearby paddy fields reportedly fled to safety as the gunfire intensified.

The incident occurred at around 1:30 pm while the personnel were returning to the 40 Assam Rifles’ Shangshak Battalion headquarters. One version claimed intense firing and repeated explosions continued for nearly two hours in the area, located about 17 km from Ukhrul district headquarters.  

"TRIBUTES TO OUR BRAVEHEARTS

Lt Gen Vikas Lakhera & All Ranks of Assam Rifles pay solemn tribute to WO Balwant Singh & Hav Chandra Mohan Singh who made the supreme sacrifice in the line of duty in Manipur today and offer deep condolences to the families of our Brave Soldiers. DG Assam Rifles & All Ranks of Assam Rifles stand firmly with the bereaved families -- went an official tweet from DGAR.

Obvious question is Who Dun it? Why .... and perhaps more important question is - Why now ? --- Meaning the time. 

Notably, the NSCN-IM issued a quick denial.  

It also said there is no "Eastern Flank" within the Naga Army of the NSCN/GPRN, rejecting any attempt to link the group with the reported incident.

Reaffirming its commitment to the ongoing peace process, the NSCN/GPRN said it remains steadfast in honouring the Ceasefire Agreement signed with the Government of India and continues to abide by all agreed ground rules. 

"The NSCN/GPRN was neither involved in nor had any prior knowledge of the incident," the statement said. 

This denial also came much quickly.

By late evening Monday, analysts and mandarins in Delhi were taking stock of the situation. Reports from various quarters and the additional inputs were incorporated and put under scanner. 

Two personnel of Assam Rifles were martyred today in an ambush by suspected militants on NH-202 near Noungshong Kong village under Ukhrul-PS, Ukhrul district.

Security forces rushed in to the site of attack and there was exchange of fire. Further operations are underway to neutralise the militants, ran a tweet from Manipur police.  

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"Any casualty of brave soldiers in uniform is a sad thing and a serious challenge. Why now is a question," remarked one source in the know of things.

Another assessment has been - " .... there is too much internal uncertainty in the NSCN-IM.... The denial is actually a defensive statement in more ways than one. 

Does someone presume; the new 'rebel gang' or the Eastern Flank will steal limelight ? At the same time, ceasefire violation may jeopardise peace talks and ceasefire". 

Questions and certain strategic aspects need closer scrutiny are "the backyards of Ukhrul writ is under threat".  

There is already fear of defection of cadres. Hence as many as four statements have come from the Hebron camp in recent past. 

Then apprehensions include - fear of loss of control over illegal trade.

The Kuki-conflict angle is also vital. 

There is a "Loss of credibility" due to handling of Kuki issue and subsequent killing of 4 Eastern Flank cadres in Hongbei.  

Multiple statements have emerged from Hebron after the 'June 16 letter'.

The missive refers to a strongly worded statement titled "NSCN(IM)-EF Strong Disagreement with Leadership of Hebron Camp". 

Issued by the Myanmar-based Eastern Flank command of the NSCN (I-M), it publicly accused the central leadership at Camp Hebron of pursuing a "compromised" path that deviates from the historical Framework Agreement, sources said.  

Following this open defiance, the NSCN-IM leadership expelled top Eastern Flank commanders—Hanshi Ramsan and Absalom Raman — for mutiny, treason, and other charges including attempting to form a breakaway parallel organization. 

There was 'loss of contact' with Ukhrul belt by those running the show at Hebron. 

source: social media 

 

At this juncture; many Nagas believe the next five years or so is going to be 'worse' and more challenging than the past five or 10 years ??  

New Delhi is trying to reflect upon vital questions - who and what triggered these?  

The long pending talks have now started having impact. Worse situations feared !

The Hebron camp is getting a feel that the Naga CSOs in Manipur are now working against it and more aligned towards EF.

Two protagonists and 'writing on the wall' 

Apparently, New Delhi's patience is running out. The so-called opposition-less dispensation in Kohima is now also like a 'performance-less regime'.  

The key mandarins and their bosses are now apparently convinced that instead of taking "forthright steps" for an early Solution and logical conclusion of the process involved vis-a-vis Framework pact and the Agreed Position; the Nagaland Govt is allegedly maintaining status quo "along with the NSCN-IM".   

In the ultimate, there is breach of trust.

Naga state and electoral politics and the Underground Naga movement often have worked in opposite directions. 

Therefore; none tried to capture the human dimension. The Modi Govt is now exploring options to make timely intervention. 

  

S C Jamir: Maestro of Naga politics has right contacts