Short-lived Mutiny seems to have weakened Putin, but that isn’t still a win for Americans

Of course Vladimir Putin will be ousted or replaced one day. But for now, consolidation and escalation seem more likely than a regime collapse.

The impact of the mini-rebellion on the Ukraine war might also work in both ways. While many assume that, with the Russian military embroiled in infighting, the Ukrainians can now find openings to reclaim more territory, a humiliated Putin would likely get more belligerent in order not to be perceived as weak. 

(Several weeks after the failed coup attempt in Turkey, Ankara waged a massive incursion into Syria, in part for the same reason.) He might increase domestic repression and take his assault inside Ukraine up one more notch." - Brookings experts

Experts Viewpoint Link

It is wrong to assume that the Russian military is toothless or that the Prigozhin saga is “the beginning of the end” for Putin. Putin was humiliated and, as Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin argues, the Russian military is corrupt and inefficient — but there is no indication that the regime is unraveling. 

We do not have a clear sense of what really happened. 

Was Prigozhin trying to stage a coup, as early reports suggested, or is this simply infighting among warlords in an opaque system?

Joe Biden said that as the Wagner Revolt took place in Russia, he directed his national security team to monitor the situation closely and make hourly reports to him.

"I instructed them to prepare for a range of scenarios," he said.  

The US President also said the allies agreed to not give Russian President Vladimir Putin an excuse to blame the coup on the US or NATO.

"We made clear, that we are not involved," Biden said. "We had nothing to do with it. This was part of a struggle within the Russian system."

Biden also called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to assure him of U.S. commitment to his country. "He and I agreed to follow up and stay in constant contact," Biden said. "I'm also in constant contact with our allies, to maintain our coordination."

Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the situation in Ukraine and the Wagner Group's mutiny with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a telephone call on Friday, 30 June, the Kremlin said.

In a statement, the Kremlin said:

"In connection with the events of June 24 in Russia, Narendra Modi expressed understanding and support for the decisive actions of the Russian leadership to protect law and order, ensure stability in the country and the security of its citizens."

Meanwhile, New Delhi released a statement and said that Modi was informed of the situation and re-emphasised on his call for dialogue and diplomacy.

The statement added that PM Modi expressed support for what the Kremlin described as Russian leadership's decisive actions while handling the Wagner group mutiny.