In West Bengal, with three prominent TMC leaders behind bars ....CORRUPTION will be a major electoral plank
“Give 35 seats to PM Narendra Modi-ji from the land of Syama Prasad Mookerjee, I guarantee Modi ji will make Sonar Bangla," said Amit Shah in Kolkata during a Karyakarta meet.
The BJP's great Bengal ambitions could not be more clearer ! In 2019, the saffron party surprised both detractors and admirers by winning 18 seats out of 42 in the Trinamool-ruled state.
In 2014 polls, Trinamool tally was 34 and it nosedived to 22. The Lotus party recorded a sharp rise in vote share taking it to 40.7 per cent from a mere 18 percent and managed to win 18 seats. The TMC vote share was 43.3 per cent.
Hence the target of 35 seems reasonable from the saffron strategists point of view. Bengal is No. 3 in terms of number of seats after 80 in Uttar Pradesh and 48 in Maharashtra. The RSS is also taking the battle of 2024 seriously, and more so in West Bengal where it wants to increase the BJP footprints.
In 2021 assembly elections, the Indian Secular Front (ISF) won one seat, and the Congress and the onetime 'powerful' Left Front drew blank. Mamata Banerjee-led outfit benefited as the communists and Congress lost ground and the incumbent Trinamool Congress won the election by a landslide.
The BJP became the official opposition with 77 seats. In terms of vote share, in 2021 - TMC polled 48.02 per cent and the number of seats 215 in 294-member assembly and the saffron party's vote share 37.97 per cent. Thus, the BJP vote share dropped by about 3 per cent from its 2019 performance in Lok Sabha polls; but rose by 27.81 per cent from about 10 per cent what was in 2016 assembly polls.
Hence by all counts, it is going to be a fierce contest in 2024 too and perhaps the advantage is still with Mamata Banerjee notwithstanding BJP's ambitions and the will to sweat it out more.
A long-held stereotype of Bengali Hindus being averse to right-wing politics was shattered when the BJP won the 2018 assembly elections in Tripura, another Left-ruled state with an overwhelming Bengali Hindu majority. The communists were in power in the northeastern state of Tripura from 1993 to 2018.
Wikipedia says:
Public anger towards corruption and goondaism/hooliganism of TMC cadres in rural areas during the 2018 panchayat elections, religious polarisation by BJP fueled by resentment of a large section of Bengali Hindu society towards Mamata Banerjee's Muslim appeasement were some of the factors those led to BJP's success in 2019 parliamentary polls.
Narendra Modi's personal image, large scale support of the Rajbongshi and Matua communities for granting Indian citizenship to exclusively non-Muslim Bangladeshi immigrants through CAA over fears of a demographic change fueled by infiltration of undocumented Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh, allegedly supported by Ms Banerjee have been cited as important reasons behind the rise of BJP in West Bengal alongside the decline of Left Front.
Of course in 2021 assembly polls, even the Covid19 pandemic became an election issue. The central government was accused of "fudging" the count of positive cases and deaths in the region.
TMC leadership and BJP-led union government blamed each other for the surge in COVID-19 infections and amid polls in Bengal, there was surge in Covid cases in northern India too -- and this also went against the BJP.
Anupam Hazra episode
After being 'removed' from the post of the national secretary of BJP, speculation is rife in Birbhum that the former Bolpur MP, Anupam Hazra may return to the Trinamool Congress.
In the past few months, Hazra has openly criticized the state and district committee of BJP.
Corruption to be main issue:
In 2024 elections in West Bengal, needless to say corruption will be a major plank by the BJP.
Mamata Banerjee's Man Friday and Trinamool Congress secretary general Partha Chatterjee was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Saturday, July 23, 2022, after being questioned for around 26 hours in connection with an alleged scam in recruitment of teachers in state-run schools.
He was allegedly not cooperating with ED officials who were questioning him since Friday morning. The scam pertained to recruitment of group 'C' and 'D' staff, assistant teachers of classes 11 and 12 and primary teachers. ED had recovered Rs 20 crore in cash from one of the properties of Chatterjee's close associate Arpita Mukherjee in south Kolkata. Mukherjee was also detained.
Chatterjee was the state education minister when the scam took place and the ED was probing the money laundering aspect based on an FIR by the Central Bureau Of Investigation (CBI) that was filed following orders of the Calcutta High Court.
On Aug 11, 2022 the CBI arrested senior Trinamool Congress leader Anubrata Mondal for allegedly not cooperating in its probe into a cattle smuggling case.
In April 2023, Ms Sukanya Mondal, daughter of Anubrata Mondal, was also arrested in the same case.
In yet another important case, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in October 2023 arrested West Bengal Minister Jyotripriya Mallick in connection with an alleged case of corruption in the distribution of rations.
 |
| Jyotripriya Mallick |
To achieve 20-plus target in North East out of 25 for NDA, BJP to go all out in Assam
Truly, the saffron party’s poll performance in Assam, which accounts for 14 Lok Sabha seats, will determine whether or not this goal is achieved. Besides Assam, all other states either have two seats or even one. Sikkim has one seat. The state-level party SKM had won one.
And in two other states with one seat - Nagaland and Mizoram - the BJP does not have much acceptability. Due to the violence in Manipur that left Kukis and Mizos aggrieved, Prime Minister Narendra Modi could not visit Mizoram during November 7 polls.
In Mizoram, the nascent ZPM, which stormed to power in November polls, will have all the advantage. The regional MNF has lost its face and power and two national parties will not be in race to consider worth it. Whether ZPM will join the BJP-led NEDA and 'extend' support to Narendra Modi in the event of their win remains to be seen.
In Nagaland, BJP is likely to give the seat to its ally NDPP led by Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio -- non performance vis-a-vis peace talks may not matter. And even if BJP insists to get the 'seat' for 2024, the Lotus party cannot win with it without "resourceful support" from its regional partner.
 |
| Rio with Namo |
From Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura, the BJP will probably have easy run with two seats each. Kiren Rijuju, the law maker from Eastern Arunachal, has been PM'a favourite since 2014 --- but lately was replaced as the Law Minister. In Manipur again, BJP will hope to share one seat each between itself and with regional party NPF, also a party which draws strength from Nagas in Manipur.
Of course, the Congress party has announced Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Nyay Yatra (on the patterns of Bharat Jodo Yatra) to be launched from Jan 15 from Manipur capital Imphal. But electorally no miracle is expected.
At best Rahul's Yatra will have some influence in a few Congress pockets.
In Meghalaya, the ruling regional party NPP of Conrad Sangma is likely to win both the seats including Tura for his sitting lawmaker sister Agatha Sangma, also a former Minister of State under Manmohan Singh government.
 |
| Manipur assembly: CM Biren 'hero' for Meiteis |
In 2019, the BJP secured nine of the fourteen seats in the general elections of 2019.
The Congress won three seats — Nagaon, Kaliabor and Barpeta. AIUDF president Badruddin Ajmal retained his Dhubri seat.
It will be interesting to see who will be Congress candidate from Silchar, wherein its popular local leader Sushmita Dev has joined Trinamool Congress. Ms Dev, daughter of Late Santosh Dev, lost the seat to Rajdeep Roy of the BJP in 2019. She is Rajya Sabha MP and Trinamool does not have much base to give an electoral fight in the constituency where there are sizable Muslim population and hence also religious polarisation.
In mainland Assam, the BJP will be keen to win more seats and its target will be of course Nagaon.
Congress nominee Pradyut Bordoloi had won the seat in 2019.
Veteran Rajen Gohain served the constituency consecutively four times in the Lok Sabha — in 1999, 2004, 2009, and 2014. But he was denied ticket in 2019 allegedly due to Himanta Biswa Sarma's interference.
Like in many states even in Assam - traditional BJP supporters and workers are aggrieved as a former Congressman Himanta is running the show and is generally helping former Congress leaders sidelining original BJP workers/leaders.
Gaurav Gogoi, the son of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, is the MP from the Kaliabor constituency. During the delimitation process, this seat was eliminated, and Kaziranga, a new Lok Sabha seat, was created.
The new seat has a "majority of Hindu voters" and so the Lotus party is confidence of winning it.
In Barpeta and Dhubri, the BJP is not quite keen as the Muslim population is more than 50 percent.
BJP leader Pijush Hazarika sarcastically even commented, “We have intentionally left a few seats for the Congress and the AIUDF and are going to win in 12 out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats.”
Notably, in 2024, the states of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim also go for assembly elections but how much Congress is in the race is perhaps anybody's guess.
No comments:
Post a Comment