The just concluded five state assembly polls and the outcome will also leave immense impact in the number tally in Rajya Sabha -- the Upper House in Indian Parliament.
Between Nov-Dec 2022 and December 2023, state assembly elections were held in as many as 10 states.
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Of these - BJP won or retained power in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, Manipur and Nagaland and wrested key states of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Congress wrested power against BJP in Himachal Pradesh and could humble BRS in Telangana.
Of course in the run up to the general elections to Parliament, the BJP is now on a more combative vis-a-vis high ambition to pick up seats between 350 and 400, but importantly it stands to improve its strength in Rajya Sabha as well.
The saffron party has 94 members in the Upper House far ahead of 30 by Congress, but even in nine years and half it is still not in 'majority' and depends on regional parties like BJD and YSRCP to sail important Bills.
The fact of the matter is between Jan and July/April 2024 – 69 Rajya Sabha seats will be vacated. With landslide victories in state elections in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh and having captured three Hindi/Hindu heartland states, the BJP has now chance to improve its numbers in the House of Elders.
Now, highlights will be retirement of former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. He now represents Rajasthan and is set to bid farewell to public life. The stint of BJP chief J P Nadda will also end and so will be senior lawmaker and actress Jaya Bachchan.
Nadda will have to change the state as the saffron party has lost power to Congress in Himachal Pradesh. There will be three vacancies in Delhi in January 2024 itself and by July 2024 (when Lok Sabha elections will be over), the state of Uttar Pradesh will have 10 vacancies.
It is understood that from Congress point of view immense pressure will be on Telangana CM Revnath Reddy and the party high command to accommodate willing candidates and 'preference' of Rahul Gandhi. From BJP's point of view, chances are that a few Union Ministers - now members of Rajya Sabha - may contest Lok Sabha polls by April-May 2024.
Vacancies expected by July, 2024 - Madhya Pradesh - 5,
Telangana - 3
Rajasthan - 3
Chhattisgarh - 1
Of these BJP has four in Madhya Pradesh, two in Rajasthan and one in Chhattisgarh.
The 'ousted' party BRS of K Chandrashekhar Rao has three seats at present in Telangana and here the Congress party is set to get 2-3 seats,
Of those likely to be vacated by July 2024, at present Congress have one member in MP and similarly one each in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
There will be six vacancies from Maharashtra, six also in Bihar and West Bengal will have five vacant slots and Gujarat and Karnataka will have four vacancies each.
There will be three vacancies from Odisha, three each in and Andhra Pradesh.
Haryana, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh will also have one vacant slot each
By June-July four nominated members will also retire and a key highlight will be Samajwadi Party's tally will increase in Rajya Sabha as the party's performance in 2022 was better than its state assembly polls performance in 2017.
Electorally what's to BJP's credit ::
** In 1990-2007 period, the BJP won every election in 131 of the 4050 assembly segments -- that is 3 percent except Uttarakhand.
This improved to 278 of 4050 assembly segments between 2008 and 2023...-- now making 7 percent
The share of assembly segments BJP never won in the past came down from 61 per cent to 48.5 per cent between 1990-2007 period and 2008-2023 period.
Here's another parameters of saffron party's success rates ---- Between 1990-2007 and between 2008-2023 periods, the BJP increased the number of assembly segments it always wins by 147.
Here is another data: (Hindustan Times) ---
States those contributed in DECREASING BJP's 'never won tally' between 1990-2007 and 2008-2023
--- West Bengal -- 15.4 per cent
Bihar and Jharkhand -- 11.5 per cent
Maharashtra - 10.9 per cent
Assam -- 10.5 per cent
Tripura - 8.7 per cent
Arunachal Pradesh - 7. 5 per cent
Uttar Pradesh - 5.9 per cent
Manipur -- 5.7 per cent
Now states those contributed to BJP's growth ---
** Gujarat -- 29.9 per cent, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh - 17.7 per cent,
Bihar and Jharkhand - 15 per cent
Uttar Pradesh -- 12.9 per cent
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