If Muslim votes shift towards Congress in Telangana; there may be 'side effects' like medical drugs : Opposition unity will be hit and there will be more Hindu consolidation towards BJP

Muslims of Telangana have been supporting the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) of K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) for the last two assembly elections but exit polls study reveal the minority community might have shifted towards the Congress in Nov 30 polls. If this happens, this will mark a tectonic shift and the single biggest take away from the assembly polls in the five states. 

This could have bigger impacts politically in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. The 'return' of Muslims to the Congress will certainly ensure a major turnaround in Indian politics and in the fate of the grand old party. 

The regional parties in major Indian states such as Samajwadi Party in UP, JD-U and RJD in Bihar and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal will be now worried as a big chunk of their share might move away and help revive the Congress party. Encouraged by Telangana success if that happens, the Congress will turn more aggressive in states such as Andhra Pradesh too. It already has Karnataka under its belt. 

Moreover, if the exit polls predictions come true; it will be clear yet again that the saffron party -- despite being in power in the centre for last nine and half years - has unable to make any significant deeper penetration in southern India. 

Now, all these will create more grounds for 'Hindu consolidation' in northern states and also in Hindi speaking states such as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. As per the exit polls, apparently, 'the Modi magic' still matters a lot in these states and will continue to dictate terms in the 2024 battle too. But there will be a social impact too and that could mean return of 'communal' vice in some states. And of course - there are reasons for the same. 

One remembers what London-based Irfan Hussain wrote for a Pakistani newspaper 'The Daily Times' a few years back: "Seen through Hindu eyes, the Muslim invasion of their homeland was an unmitigated disaster. Their temples were razed, their idols smashed.....These conquers justified their deeds by claiming it was their religious duty to smite non-believers....they were indulging in straightforward slaughter and pillage".  

In fact these were responsible for creating the prisms of suspicion on both sides and the menace has survived. Politicians have only done the worse. 

 

The BJP has one approach; reach out to the Hindus and fulfill their agenda such as construction of a grand Ram temple in Ayodhya and even revive the importance of Kashi corridor or Krishna Janmasthan. The Congress and other secular parties have over the years pursued a strategy which stands exposed today to the Indian electorate. 

Here its how: The Congress and other opposition parties would want the Muslim votes 'intact' coming into their kitty; but when it comes to Hindu votes -- they want the same in splintered form - either Dalits, Yadavs and OBCs. Hence in Gujarat prior to 2002; the successful political card was KHAM (a combination of Kshatriyas, Harijans, Adivasis and Muslims). 

Here other Hindu segments like Brahmins and even cash-rich Vaniyas are neglected. Next was the MY card in UP and Bihar and that made the political fortunes of Lalu Prasad led RJD and the Samajwadi Party under Late Mulayam Singh Yadav and now under Akhilesh Yadav.  

These can harm the nation in more ways than one. But nevertheless, one can conclude that the Congress revival journey is possible only with the support of the Muslim votes -- either in Telangana or in other states.

One refrain from the Congress camp is -- well, here we are, the AIMIM has been B-team for the BJP; and we are the true saviours of the Muslim community from the BJP. This argument gained acceptability in Telangana while it was already endorsed in Karnataka in May 2023. The political debate could also be held why despite the pro-Muslim welfarism for last 10 years, BRS under KCR would fail to get Muslim support.

This 'peculiarity' has a parallel drawn with BJP on two fronts. We have debated earlier how and why the 'impressive and repetitive' victories of BJP and Narendra Modi in Gujarat could raise a fundamental question about governance, communalism, leadership and developments. Similarly, it was also a puzzle when Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government was defeated in 2004 when the BJP had focused the campaign on the theme 'India Shining'. Thus, schemes and welfare works may not bring in dividends politically/electorally always. 

 We have another angle vis-a-vis the twin issues of democratic governance and constitution. Regions of India like UP and Bihar ruled by so called 'secularists (Sickularism smitten outfits)' have been rocked by caste and religious conflicts and also remained 'poor'; but a state like Gujarat remained free of riots since 2002 and also embraced immense scopes and projects of development.   

Thus, we find combination of popular elections, institutionalised countervailing powers, crony capitalism, corruption and leadership issues do matter either to Muslim or the Hindu voters.