Saturday, December 2, 2023

India witnesses 'vintage Moditva politics' as PM's magical influence prevails, Three states reject OBC-census card; Muslims return to Congress

The trends for 2024 battle if any from the state assembly polls is that Modi magic prevails and this will help Narendra Modi make a convincing journey heralding 'return' to power for the record third time in a row.


Only Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru had achieved so in the past. 


The 'vintage politics' also means Congress winning back its support base in Telangana and especially from Muslims. But this will impact opposition unity as parties such as Trinamool Congress and Samajwadi Party will have all the more reasons to be 'wary' of Congress penetration into Muslim support base in their respective states of West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. 






(Social media jokes have powerful political messages ...as BJP prepares to win 350 plus in 2024....#Muslims back #Congress,,, Opposition unity will be hit and more #Hindus will come closer to #BJP and #Modi ..... OBCs back Narendra Modi yet again.) 









But there are other takeaways, the BJP and Modi may be lucky to cross 350 mark in the Lok Sabha polls.  How?


The decline of BRS in Telangana would mean even in this Deccan region state, the Lok Sabha polls will be between BJP and the Congress. In 2019, the BJP had managed to win ZZ seats from the state.   


The BJP's good shows in the two Hindi and Hindu-heartland states - Madhya Pradesh (that is under BJP now) and Rajasthan augur well for its chances of success in the 2024 general elections and help Narendra Modi score hat-trick. In contrast, Congress is maintaining its hold in Chhattisgarh despite serious charges against Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel in the think of election season. 


Together, the three states make up 65 of the 543 elected seats in India's parliament.  In 2014 when the BJP and its allies swept the national polls, they won over 315 of the 543 seats. In 2014, the BJP claimed 61 of the 65 seats in these key states. In 2019, out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, the BJP had won 9. 


In Madhya Pradesh, BJP won 28 and Congress only one. In Rajasthan, it was clean sweep with 24 seats for the saffron party and one seat (out of 25) had gone to its ally RLP. Thus three states had given BJP -- 62.  


The failure of OBC-census card shows the OBC community has stuck to Modi. Madhya Pradesh has over 50 percent of electorate OBCs and hence there are chances Modi will sweep these three states and also Uttar Pradesh (also empowered with Yogi Tsunami)  in Uttar Pradesh. 


The apprehensions that the power of Moditva brand is on decline as propagated by Sickularism army have again been proved wrong. Modi and the BJP's chief strategist will focus now with renewed determination in states such as Odisha and West Bengal. As it is, the saffron party won 18 seats in Bengal and now the target will be around 28-30. 


Another argument built up that BJP's tally will come down in UP, MP, Rajasthan etc also failed. 




#Muslims return to #Congress will boomerang in more ways than one.






Since the British left, politics in India has mainly centered around the Congress party, which ruled the country for a total 52 years with the odd interval. 

It was a dominance that waned in 2014 and the 2019 results perhaps nearly ended it, placing BJP at the center as the new national party. But five years since 2019 and nine/ten years since 2014 the Congress was hoping to bounce back. Though it could outsmart BRS in Telangana; Rahul Gandhi is no match for Namo power.



“People were content with what they got — the gas cylinders, rural houses and toilets and hence we won 2019 polls and we will again 2024 under the leadership of Narendra Modi," says a BJP poll strategist. 


In the last nine years since 2019, Modi and the BJP have repeatedly shown how they abhor 'Nehruvian politics' or what the BJP calls the 'dynasty rule Nehru-Gandhi family'. 


Nehru, his daughter Indira Gandhi and her son Rajiv Gandhi together headed the government in New Delhi for as many as 37 years. Congressman Manmohan Singh was in power for 10 years between 2004 and 2014; and between 1991 and 1996 - there was another Congress veteran in power - P V Narasimha Rao.


In other words, we may easily conclude that the Indian political history has shed its 'status quo' tag. 




 


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