Why Elections in Jammu and Kashmir would matter a lot for India and Narendra Modi ?

 

This will be the first election in Jammu and Kashmir after a decade.

The Election Commission of India on Friday announced holding of provincial elections in Jammu and Kashmir from Sept. 18 in three phases.

These will be first assembly polls there in a decade and five years after the Modi government scrapped the special autonomy law - the Article 370 and also bifurcated the state into two Union Territories Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir.

Of course, India's only Muslim-majority province has been at the heart of more than 75 years of animosity with neighbouring Pakistan since the birth of the two nations in 1947.

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have been targeted by militants in the past and also seen low voter turnout. 

However, during the Lok Sabha polls in 2024, the territory recorded its highest turnout in 35 years.

There was a record turnout of 65.52 per cent percent of voters. 

Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said - the people of Kashmir "chose the ballot instead of bullet and boycott" during the Lok Sabha elections and hence the Election Commission wants to build on that, adding there would be sufficient security forces to ensure a peaceful vote. 

Moreover to ensure peaceful and free and fair polls, additional security forces will be deployed. And to this the poll panel has not yet announced polling Maharashtra  - where too assembly elections are due by October-November.  

The move to hold elections in Jammu and Kashmir follows a December 2023 order by the Supreme Court that also had rejected petitions challenging the revocation of Kashmir's special status and set a deadline of Sept 30 for holding the polls. 

Nearly 9 million people are registered to vote for the 90-member legislative assembly. 

The voting will be held in three phases - Sept 18 and Sept 25 and October 1. The ballots will be counted on Oct 4 along with the polls in Haryana too. 

In Haryana, voting will take place on Oct 1.

The Modi government has taken a strong stance that the 2019 decision on Aig 5th to do away with the Article 370 brought normalcy to Kashmir after decades of bloodshed.

The distorted 'special status' allowed Jammu and Kashmir a measure of administrative autonomy but that held back the province's development. 

In 2019, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar had said: "This change is our internal business but obviously there was interest around the world because different people had views about it and our neighbours made a bit of a fuss about it". 

"I think it was a much more difficult challenge with the media, especially the English-speaking liberal media because partly they were very ideological about it, they had strong preset views on this subject,” (on abrogation of Article 370) 

The Modi government since 2019 launched multiple projects to boost the local economy and especially encourage the film industry and also boost infrastructures and tourism.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the militancy attack and clashes with security forces.

India has blamed Pakistan for training, funding and pushing Islamist militants into Kashmir.

Why and How would the ensuing Kashmir polls matter to both the country and PM Narendra Modi?

The elections will be a key indicator of the political sentiment in a region that has experienced sweeping changes over the past decade, particularly the transition to Union Territory status.

Last Assembly Election: 2014

Total Seats in 2014: 87

Seats after Delimitation: 90

2024 Lok Sabha turnout: 65.52 per cent

In 2014 assembly polls, the People's Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as the largest party with 28 seats, while the BJP secured 25. Farooq Abdullah's National Conference won 15 seats, and the Congress claimed 12. 

Seven seats went to smaller parties and Independents. However, no party secured a majority in the 87-seat Assembly, leading to a coalition government between PDP and BJP. 

Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape has been reshaped dramatically. The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 ended the state’s special status and redefined it as a Union Territory. In 2022, a delimitation exercise increased the number of Assembly seats to 90. 

New constituencies were added in Jammu’s Samba, Rajouri, and Kathua districts, while Kupwara in Kashmir gained an additional seat.

Jammu and Kashmir's Assembly seats have undergone several rounds of delimitation in 1957, 1966, 1975, and 1995, with the last exercise based on the 1981 census. This formed the foundation for the 1996 state elections.

A freeze was imposed on further delimitation after 2001, following a state assembly law that delayed the process until after the 2026 census. At that time, Jammu and Kashmir had 87 seats, including four for Ladakh, with 24 seats reserved for Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir.

GOVERNOR'S POWERS

Since 2019, the Lieutenant Governor has held significant power over key areas, including police and land decisions. The elected Assembly’s authority has been reduced, with the Lieutenant Governor required to approve most decisions.

These elections will mark a new chapter in Jammu and Kashmir's political history. Changes in constituency boundaries and governance mean this vote will reveal the extent of the political realignment in the region.

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