Will Narendra Modi play the role of a possible mediator, two and a half years after Russia invaded ?
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser in the Ukrainian president’s office, said Friday’s discussions in Kyiv were significant because Delhi “really has a certain influence” over Moscow.
“It’s extremely important for us to effectively build relations with such countries, to explain to them what the correct end to the war is – and that it is also in their interests,” he told Reuters. (courtesy, 'The Guardian')
India or Narendra Modi had sought to present his government as a neutral peace broker. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, prompting western sanctions, India has imported large volumes of discounted Russian oil. It attended Ukraine’s July peace summit in Switzerland but did not sign a communique.
But the Kremlin’s deepening partnership with China – India’s biggest geo-political and neighbourhood rival – has prompted a reassessment. On Friday, Zelenskiy embraced Modi warmly and described his support for Ukraine’s integrity in the face of Russian aggression as “critical”.
“Today, history was made,” Zelenskiy posted on X. He pointed out Modi’s “friendly” and “symbolic” visit came on the eve of celebrations for Ukraine’s independence day.
The two leaders stood together in front of a museum memorial to Ukrainian children killed by Russian missiles. In official talks, they discussed the 10-point peace formula Zelenskiy has presented to the international community, India’s foreign ministry said.
The blueprint envisages the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied areas, reparations and war crime tribunals for Russian generals and political figures. Ukrainian officials are preparing to organise a second peace summit this year, and are keen to involve global south countries. One venue under discussion is Saudi Arabia, it is understood.
Modi’s trip comes at a time when the Russian and Ukrainian armies are both making gains. Two and a half weeks ago Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia. On Friday, its military said it had used US-supplied glide bombs to carry out precision strikes on a Russian platoon base in the Kursk region, destroying enemy equipment. A video showed explosions and clouds of smoke.
Ukraine’s armed forces now control a 1,250 sq km salient inside Russia, centred on the town of Sudzha. The Kremlin has downplayed the incursion and pledged to drive out Ukrainian “terrorists”. About 130,000 Russians have fled. Fierce fighting continues in the town of Korenevo and in a dozen frontline villages.
The 'invasion by Russia' – the first by foreign troops since the second world war – has gone better for Kyiv than expected.
On Thursday, Zelenskiy said the “buffer zone” had reduced cross-border shelling of civilians. It is unclear if there is a Ukrainian military exit strategy if Putin responds with overwhelming force.
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Kyiv wants India to join its vision for "a just peace," aimed at concentrating a global effort around pushing the Kremlin to end its full-scale invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement Friday.
But India — currently one of the largest trade partners of Russia, a major purchaser of Russian oil, as well as provider of about 16 humanitarian aid packages to Ukraine — keeps stating it remains neutral and calls for peace, but not the “just peace” that Kyiv wants.
“A peaceful solution to the conflict is best for humanity,” Modi said Friday. In a joint statement published later, the leaders said India and Ukraine both support upholding principles of international law, including the U.N. Charter, such as respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty of states.
While in Kyiv, Modi signed several agreements, deepening cooperation with Ukraine in pharmaceutical, agrarian, humanitarian and cultural areas. He also met with Indian diaspora representatives, visited the Mahatma Gandhi monument, met with Ukrainian diplomatic officials and hugged Zelenskyy, just like he hugged Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow a month ago.
That first hug dealt a blow to Ukraine’s diplomatic relations with India, as Modi visited Moscow and embraced Putin the day Russian forces bombed a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Although Modi called on Putin to stop the war and said a solution could not be found on the battlefield, Zelenskyy was disappointed by Modi’s coziness with the Russian leader.
“It is a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” Zelenskyy wrote, referring to the deadly Russian attacks last month.
Kyiv hopes that India could become one of the possible intermediary countries that would help to achieve an enduring peace with Russia, based on the 10 points of Zelenskyy’s peace formula.
“We are looking for concrete discussions, we need to look to the future. We want India to join the communiqué of the Switzerland peace summit and to discuss the long-lasting strategic interests between India and Ukraine,” Andriy Yermak, head of the president’s office and Zelenskyy’s main foreign policy official, told 'India Today' a day ahead of Modi’s visit to Ukraine.
India was one of the few countries that showed up to the peace summit in Switzerland but did not sign the meeting's final communiqué.
“We hope that India will try to put political pressure on Putin to stop the aggression against Ukraine,
so that India clearly shows that it is not on the side of the aggressor, but on the side of justice and a just peace, and not the pacification of the aggressor,” Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign relations committee in the Ukrainian parliament, told POLITICO.
'Indian Express' commentary :
It took the tragic and a globally disruptive war to bring Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Kyiv, the first such visit since Ukraine re-established itself as an independent nation amid the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.
But by showing up in Ukraine and lending a shoulder to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is leading a badly battered nation to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty, Modi has initiated three important processes:
-- insert India into Europe’s quest for peace;
- expand Delhi’s room for manoeuvre in the global geopolitical churn triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine;
and reclaim Delhi’s lost bonds with Kyiv in the post-Soviet era.
First, on the question of ending the war in Ukraine, Modi had no spectacular peace plan to unveil.
That Modi took a long train ride from Warsaw to Ukraine to engage Zelenskyy in a long and intense conversation on war and peace was an important moment in itself.
What Kyiv needed was not yet another peace plan but Modi’s understanding of Ukraine’s concerns about survival as a nation that did not get sufficient resonance in India and the so-called Global South.
Zelenskyy hopes that Modi’s willingness to hear Ukraine’s case and contribute to the peace efforts will help turn the political tide in the Global South that has stood apart from the war, despite its massive economic consequences.
The 'Indian Express' article also stated:
"Second, as the geopolitical consequences of the war in Ukraine unfold, Modi’s visit to Kyiv is a signal that Delhi will no longer be a passive by-stander in a conflict that is reshaping the world.
For five centuries, India was an adjunct to European wars.
Modi’s visit to Ukraine underlines India’s determination to actively shape the major European and global war of the times.
India is not the only Asian power trying to alter the European balance of power.
That the Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang was winding up his visit in Moscow when Modi was travelling from Warsaw to Kyiv is a reminder of China’s growing role in shaping the contours of the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine is not only about renewed contest between Russia and the West but also about the role of Delhi and Beijing in Europe.
Interestingly, if the presence of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in Washington this week underlines India’s expanding strategic ties with the US, Modi’s engagement with President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy in quick succession underline India’s determination to protect its interests amidst the tremors from the reordering of great power relations.
Delhi-Kyiv revival
Finally, Modi’s visit is also about re-establishing the lost bonds between India and Ukraine. Although India had privileged access to Ukraine in the Soviet era, Kyiv did not inherit its share of India’s political affections for the USSR.
The extraordinary goodwill for India in Ukraine was reflected in the warm welcome extended to Modi in Kyiv.
The commitment by Modi and Zelensky to elevate their relationship into a “strategic partnership”, reboot their economic and defence ties, and revitalise their cultural ties marks the end of the prolonged neglect of India’s ties with Ukraine.
"Above all, Modi's visit should help bring greater nuance and sophistication to India's debate on the war in Ukraine that has been subject too long to political prejudice and ignorance about Central European history," writes C. Raja Mohan, a visiting research professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore.
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