Assam's gory history of violence, students' unrest are all linked to migration of Bangladeshis :::: Ouster of ally Sheikh Hasina a diplomatic setback !!

Mujib's admirers in the Memorial House premises: 2017

Former Bangadesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina pursued a delicate balancing act, benefiting from support from Narendra Modi's New Delhi, while maintaining strong relations with X Jinping's Beijing.

For his part Modi and his government saw a common threat in groups Hasina viewed as rivals and crushed with brutal force, including the key Bangladesh National Party (BNP). 

Hasina's regime had maintained friendly relations with the erstwhile Manmohan Singh government as well.  

Dhaka helped the then Congress government in Delhi to get ULFA chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa and other top militant leaders get arrested and deported to India. 

Under Modi Teen Bigha - 'exchange' of enclaves was a major booster to bilateral ties. But there are other issues as well.

India now fears the return of a hawkish anti-India and anti-Hindu dispensation in Bangladesh.

Former prime minister, Begum Khaleda Zia's BNP is a strategic partner with Jamaat e Islami and other fundamentalist groups and also friendly to Pakistani elements.

And there are wide scale speculation that all have conspired including in Dhaka to eventually gain control of the country with an avowedly Islamic agenda.

The Jamaat has seen many of its leaders hanged by the Hasina government for colluding with the Pakistani army in genocide, mass raping, and war crimes in 1971. 

India hardly has a warm relationship with Khaleeda Zia and is positively hostile to the Jamaat.  During the stint of the Vajpayee government, BSF soldiers were killed by Bangladesh security forces in border areas and their bodies were carried like those of animals.

The cat is out of the bag. The Hindu and Christian groups in Bangladesh are being attacked.

Hindus have gone to the extent of coming out on the streets and threatening to use violence to protect themselves and the temples. A number of Hindu temples have been attacked and destroyed already. Even the statue of Rabindranath Tagore was brought down. 

Importantly due to past experience, India now fears a large-scale influx not only of the usual economic migrants but this time of many Hindus and Christians.

In 2019, the Narendra Modi government has enacted a new law Citizenship Amendment Act that seeks to  "integrate" any Sikh, Parsi, Buddhist, Christian, or Hindu who enter India from Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Critics say Modi may like them if they are not Muslims, but his party men who rule in Assam and Tripura, both bordering Bangladesh, may have second opinion.

In fact, Assam's gory history of violence, students' unrest and lack of development in more ways than one are all linked to migration of Bangladeshis into the state since 1971 when East Pakistan came out of the control of Islamabad.

Indian Journalists in Dhaka: India Music Fest, 2017 December

Of course Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to offer his “best wishes” after Bangladesh’s newly sworn-in interim leader Muhammad Yunus took power saying New Delhi was “committed” to working with Dhaka.

He was also candid when he tweeted: "We hope for an early return to normalcy, ensuring the safety and protection of Hindus and all other minority communities. India remains committed to working with Bangladesh to fulfill the shared aspirations of both our peoples for peace, security and development,"

But China was also swift to welcome Dhaka’s new authorities, saying it “attaches importance to the development” of relations.

"With Hasina’s rivals in control in Dhaka, India’s support for the old government has come back to bite," says an AFP article covered widely by international press.

“From the point of view of Bangladeshis, India has been on the wrong side for a couple of years now,” said International Crisis Group analyst Thomas Kean.

“The Indian government absolutely did not want to see a change in Dhaka, and had made that very clear for years that they didn’t see any alternative to Hasina and the Awami League.”

Bangladesh is almost entirely encircled by India, with a deeply intertwined history long before they were partitioned out of the Indian subcontinent in 1947.

But while India’s 1.4 billion population and dominating economy overshadows Bangladesh — with a population of 170 million — Hasina also courted China.

India and China, the world’s two most populous nations, are intense rivals competing for strategic influence across South Asia, including in Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

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