Of course in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP lost ground and did so especially in the north and in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh.
But it is also true, the saffron outfit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi gained in the south. The BJP ally TDP in Andhra Pradesh did much better both in the Lok Sabha and state assembly elections.
It is also being argued that if seats were redistributed by population while maintaining state-wise party shares, Modi’s coalition would have won 309 MPs, not 294, out of 543. That means there is an edge !!
Thus there is a growing perception that the Modi-Amit Shah combo may be pushing delimitation to lock in a lead in 2029, when rising discontent could threaten his hold on power.
The concerns of southern states could be addressed by freezing seat allocations for decades to allow the north to catch up.
But the BJP seems to prefer expanding India’s parliament to prevent any state from losing representation, while shrinking southern influence. Much hinges on the timing of India’s census, a crucial tool for evidence-based policy making.
Already postponed due to Covid in 2021, further delays are increasingly difficult to justify – they obstruct welfare distribution, stall efforts to improve women’s parliamentary representation and appear politically motivated.
If delimitation proceeds before 2029 it could reshape India’s political landscape to the BJP’s advantage – but at the cost of a growing north-south rift that threatens to fracture the Indian union.
There are five major states in south of India and they are governed by different parties. Karnataka is the only state where BJP first came to power in 2008. But it lost 2018 and 2023 elections. In 2025, none of the five states -- Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataa, Tamil Nadu and Kerala belong to Modi’s pro-Hindutva nationalist BJP.
Notably, Southern states have long accused Modi’s government of "bias" in central funding.
The charge is repeatedly denied by the centre and Union Ministers including Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
Incidentally or by design, Nirmala Sitharaman is from south. Modi's much efficient and trusted External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar is also from Tamil Nadu.
London's 'The Guardian' newspaper says:
"A victory in 2029 may seem unlikely. Yet his (PM Narendra Modi's) government’s push to redraw parliamentary constituencies using post-2026 census data could tilt the electoral field in his favour."
Delimitation refers to periodic attempts to ensure that the shares of different States in Lok Sabha seats are similar to their respective population shares, and also that all constituencies have the same population size as far as possible, as required under Article 81 of the Constitution.
As is being debated widely, the fast-approaching delimitation exercise is likely to shift the balance of Lok Sabha seats in favour of States that have experienced relatively fast population growth since 1973.
This means, in particular, that the seat shares of the northern States will grow at the expense of the southern States.
This is certainly like a can of worms.
Tamil Nadu-under DMK of M K Stalin is already rebelling.
If the BJP is able to get away with this, however, its electoral prospects will improve, since it has a much stronger base in the north than in the south.
The 106th amendment of the Constitution, passed in 2023 September, provides for one-third reservation of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies.
Under Section 5, this is due to come into effect “after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first census taken after [2023] have been published” (emphasis added). So far, this has been interpreted to mean that women’s reservation would begin after the larger delimitation exercise required by the 84th amendment.
In that case, an early census would postpone women’s reservation, by postponing delimitation.
The exchange of words between Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin and Union Home Minister Amit Shah has added fuel to the entire drama.
While Stalin warned against a reduction in the number of seats, Shah asserted that southern states would not lose “even a single seat” in the upcoming delimitation exercise. Going further, Stalin convened an all-party meeting on March 5.
The resolutions adopted in the meeting not only rejected redistribution of Lok Sabha (LS) seats based on the population figures of the upcoming census, but also sought to constitute a Joint Action Committee comprising representatives of political parties from all southern states to take forward the struggle to prevent loss of representation.
The latest debate over delimitation raises three important questions. Can federal units dictate the terms of reference of the delimitation exercise or stall the delimitation process? Is the apprehension of the southern states real, and if so, what might be the extent of the loss of representation? And finally, are there pathways to address the concerns of states that are likely to suffer in terms of LS seats?
In the constitutional scheme of things, only Parliament has the power to make laws relevant to delimitation.
Article 327 states: “…. Parliament may from time to time by law make provision with respect to all matters relating to, or in connection with, elections to either House of Parliament or to the House or either House of the Legislature of a State including ……
the delimitation of constituencies and all other matters necessary for securing the due constitution of such House or Houses.”
Empowered as such and in compliance with the constitutional requirements, Parliament sets up a centralised Delimitation Commission to carry out the whole exercise of delimitation, including redistribution of LS seats.
ends
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