"India’s Kashmir strategy seems to be working. But the policy of isolating Pakistan has reached a dead end.
Trying to isolate Pakistan and not talking had made sense, but why is India still not talking? India knows Pakistan would insist on talking about Kashmir, which they do not want," says Touqir Hussain, a former Pakistani ambassador and adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting Senior Research Fellow National University of Singapore.
He further says, New Delhi "wants to convince the Kashmiris that Pakistan is no longer relevant to their future and they better reconcile to the new realities on the ground".
Hussain writes in Pakistani newspaper 'Dawn' : HISTORICALLY, India-Pakistan relations have moved within a narrow bandwidth, mostly between a looming conflict and an ominous peace.
A sense of tension and expectancy was always in the air, but dialogue was never taken off the table. But the current state of relations is unique. The two countries are simply not on speaking terms. There is no dialogue, nor a desire for it."
These statements are significant as the province of Jammu and Kashmir is in the midst of electioneering - the first polls since the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the erstwhile state.
Speaking at the launch of a book last month, India's foreign minister Dr S Jaishankar had said -- “Actions have consequences and in so far as Jammu and Kashmir is concerned, I think (Article) 370 is done.
"So the issue today is what kind of relationship can we possibly contemplate with Pakistan,” the minister has said.
"What I do want to say is that we are not passive, and whether events take a positive or negative direction, either way we will react," he added.
For his part, Pakistani expert Hussain also notes: "Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Pakistan policy began with high-visibility peace overtures, including the invitation to his swearing-in, and the theatrics of visiting Nawaz Sharif in Lahore in December 2015.
"He (Modi) knows the power of the visual for modern media. After exciting the international media about prospects of peace in the region and conjuring an illusion of Modi as a peacemaker, he pulled the plug on the “peace initiative” by using the January 2016 Pathankot incident as an excuse.
"The move at once highlighted the militancy issue and Pakistan as a spoiler, and stitched the two. The accusation became India’s standard playbook in its campaign to isolate Pakistan."
He also writes: "India, which had already become America’s crucial partner in balancing China, was now an important ally in containing Pakistan.
Supporting India in its regional hegemonic ambitions and its policy of making terrorism the core issue between India and Pakistan suited Washington. America’s own relationship with Pakistan was becoming adversarial because of Islamabad’s strategic relationship with China, unhelpful role in the failing Afghanistan war, and the alleged association with terrorism about which the US had its own concerns.
The Pakistani expert also maintains that Modi's Pakistan and Kshmir policy and the manner publicity related to these have been handled, New Delhi could attain two milestones - politically the BJP benefited on one hand and on the other hand, it ensured Pakistan get a mad press in the west.
"With Indian and American policies on Pakistan beating to each other’s rhythm, the forward policy of PM Modi’s first term became the aggressive nationalism of the second term.
In a clear break from India’s past defensiveness, he responded militarily to the Pulwama incident. It worked domestically as Pulwama and the earlier incidents involving militants had triggered an enormous emotional response from the Indian citizenry, providing strong support for Modi’s national security policies.
And abroad, it helped highlight Pakistan as having provoked the Indian military response and thus being responsible for inciting the risk of conflict in the region, a nuclear flashpoint."
Hussain says reopening of dialogue process between two countries remains a far cry.
"In any case the dilemma remains how to resume the dialogue. India has maintained that terrorism and talks do not go together. Though this is not really a precondition, it puts the onus of seeking the dialogue on Pakistan.
However, Pakistan will not talk unless India’s Aug 5, 2019 actions are reversed."
ends
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