(get set go .... 2024....)
"For me, the biggest caste is the poor. For me, the biggest caste is the youth. The biggest caste for me is women, the biggest caste for me is farmers. Only the upliftment of these four castes will make India developed......Mere liye sabse badi jaati hai garib. Mere liye sabse badi jaati hai yuva". -- PM Narendra Modi
The 2024 elections are not far off, and hence the saffron camp has started preparing things well in advance. Amit Shah made it clear in Kolkata that corruption will be a chief electoral plank, and now no less than the Prime Minister has decided to focus more on poor, youths and women power.
Modi’s remarks at a video interaction with welfare beneficiaries — "labharthis, considered a loyal support base of the Lotus party" had key political messages. The party strategists say the focus will be on poverty alleviation and something more catchy as a slogan 'Modi's Guarantee'.
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| 2019: BJP had Muslim nominee in Jangipur, Bengal |
They also feel, while ensuring general 'Hindu unity' vis-a-vis the OBC-survey card pushed by JD(U) and Congress; the pro-Hindutva and 'right wing' party will reach out to the minorities especially Muslims.
Of course, the BJP is hardly known for fielding Muslim candidates in Lok Sabha as well as state elections; but it is also a fact that "studies reveal" that in 2014, the saffron party gained more Muslim votes than the Congress
In the 16th Lok Sabha post-2019 polls, the BJP has no Muslim MP despite being the largest party with above 300 mark; and in 2014 the party had fielded seven Muslims of its 482 candidates and none could win.
About Christian voters, it is felt the party has always a mixed acceptability. In north east, Christian voters have voted for the BJP in Nagaland 'electing' 12 MLAs in two subsequent polls of 2018 and 2023 from the 20 candidates the party fielded. It shares power with a regional party for last five years and more now.
In Kerala, which also has substantial Christian voters, in 2021, Modi had met India's most senior Catholic leaders — Cardinal Oswald Gracias of the Latin-rite Church, Cardinal George Alencherry, major archbishop of the Syro-Malabar Church, and Cardinal Baselios Cleemis of the Syro-Malankara Church.
This certainly denoted BJP trying to establishing strong links with the Christians.
On Nov 30 as the state of Telangana (with sizable Muslim voters) went to polls, the ruling party organised a video conference as part of the Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra.
This incidentally came two days after the Union Cabinet approved the extension of the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) for five years. The scheme aims to provide free foodgrains to 81.35 crore people under the National Food Security Act (NFSA).
The Prime Minister made it clear that uplifting farmers along with youth and women -- that is the poor - can only ensure making the country developed. He may not be there in politics or power then; but the PM has set 2047 as the year when India, that is Bharat, should emerge as a 'developed' nation.
The party insiders say the “Modi guarantee” will be also in focus.
“Mere liye desh ki sabse badi chaar jatiyan hain. Mere liye sabse badi jaati hai garib. Mere liye sabse badi jaati hai yuva, mere liye sabse badi jaati hai mahilayen. Mere liye sabse badi jaati hai kisan. In char jatiyon ka utthan hi Bharat ko viksit banayega. Agar chaar ka ho jayega to iska matlab sabka ho jayega (For me, there are four biggest castes in the country .... poor, youth, women and farmers).
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| File snap: Sept 13, 2013 - the day BJP named Namo as PM candidate |
In his address, the Prime Minister was also categorical. "....if it happens to four social groups, it means it will happen to everyone,” Modi said in reference to government's welfare schemes and uplift of these needy sections. Of course, in all that he is saying and promising yet again to deliver -- there is one important message -- the BJP knows the 2024 battle will be tough and more challenging then the past battles of 2014 and 2019 have been.
The opposition leaders say "Hindus also need jobs" and in that sense, Modi has not delivered.
“Garib ka bachha bhooka na jaye, kisi garib ke ghar ka choola na bujhe (no child from a poor family should sleep hungry and the stove in any house of the poor should not go out). So, our Cabinet has approved the extension of the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana for five years,” Modi said.
Aware of what his detractors are planning, PM also has pitched 'Modi ka guarantee' versus other guarantees of the Congress and other parties.
“Jahan doosron se ummeed kam ho jati hai, wahi se Modi ki guarantees shuru hoti hai. (Where hope from other parties will not be there; Modi’s guarantees will begin. This is why Modi’s guarantees are popular).”
The PM also launched an initiative to increase the number of Jan Aushadhi Kendras, which sell medicines at subsidised rates, from 10,000 to 25,000 and the Drone Didi Yojana to provide drones to 15,000 women self-help groups from 2024 to 2026 for providing rental services to farmers for agriculture purposes.
"It will be Modi guarantee versus other guarantees," remarked a BJP leader.
Muslim voters and 2014 polls:
Despite not fielding many Muslim candidates and widespread criticism of its prime-ministerial candidate Narendra Modi as a communal leader, the BJP managed to attract double the number of Muslim voters it did in 2009.
The stagnation of the Congress's Muslim vote was due to fragmentation. According to a Lokniti-CSDS analysis, "...in states where the Congress was in direct competition with the BJP, it got nearly three-fourths of the Muslim vote overall. On the other hand, in states with strong regional parties (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Assam, the Muslm support for Congress had declined to about one-third as the minority community also had voted for other regional parties.
According to a Lokniti-CSDS survey of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP doubled its Muslim vote share while the Congress vote share remained stagnant. The BJP bagged 9% pf Muslim votes, more than double in the previous Lok Sabha elections in 2009 when it got 4% of Muslim votes.
The Congress got 38% of Muslim votes in 2009 and the number remained the same in 2014.
Interestingly, an international agency Pew survey in 2021 claimed that in 2019 parliamentary polls in India, One out of five Muslims in India voted for the BJP in the 2019 general elections.
This works out to about 19 per cent, a new survey conducted by the Pew Research Centre on religion, caste, nationalism and attitudes in India has found.
Nearly half of the Hindu voters (49 per cent) say they voted for the BJP, compared with significantly fewer people among minority religious groups.
But in 2023, there was a key message. The consolidation of Muslim votes ensured big win for Congress in Karnataka.
Nine Muslims, all from Congress, were elected to the 224-member assembly, up from seven in 2018. The consolidation of Muslim votes, nearly 13% of the electorate, was apparent this time in favour of Congress.
Now if Congress wins Telengana upsetting BRS of K Chandrasekhar Rao, this message would be further strengthened that the Muslims are gradually shifting towards the grand old party and this will not augur well for parties such as Samajwadi Party and the Trinamool Congress.
ends
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