And before the war for 2024 began, has BJP decided 'not to win' Nagaon seat in Assam ? AAP set to harm Congress in key states

New Delhi

Come election season and these are usual skirmishes. The BJP is delighted that the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is seriously sweating it out in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh much to the chagrin of Congress. The BJP's worries are also some pecular kinds but not to be underestimated. 

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP came to power in 2020 March just on the eve of Covid19 lockdown. About 15 months back in December 2018, it lost three Hindi heartland states Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Rajasthan and Chattisgarh are still with Congress and the grand old party is fighting it out in the desert state and in Chhattisgarh, indications are that the Bhupesh Baghel-led Congress has the advantage.  

The saffron party's another electoral related problems in Madhya Pradesh is bt peculiar. Its vote share is increasing in Lok Sabha polls somewhat consistently since 1980s (Rajiv Gandhi) era, but the party's vote share and seats do come down in assembly polls. In 2018, the BJP could win only 114 seats - just short of 12 to touch the majority mark and hence the single largest party Congress under Kamal Nath could form the government.

But Shivraj Singh Chouhan is still the party face and is 'Mama' in the state for last 18 years.  Under Shivraj, the Lotus party could win 2008 and 2013 polls and at one time there were elements in the 'sickular fraternity' that he could give contest to Narendra Modi, then Gujarat Chief Minister. Thus, the anti-incumbency factor works against BJP. 

Now the answer to the question, how much Jyotiraditya Scindia can help in Gwalior region lies in the womb of time. 

In Madhya Pradesh, the drama has little shifted to the 'I.N.D.I.A' alliance after AAP decided to try their luck for expansion. This is direct challenge to the Congress, a sign of dissension in the Opposition alliance and a sure recipe to help the BJP. 

In Rajasthan, the Kejriwal-led party, which denied power to Congress in crucial state Punjab in March this uear, has announced plans to field candidates in at least 25-26 seats in politically crucial regions of Jaipur, Ajmer, Ganganagar, Banswara, Sikar, Hanumangarh, Kota, Dausa and Alwar districts. 

In Madhya Pradesh’s Satna, Kejriwal diectly took on BJP's face Shivraj Singh Chouhan, whi is called “mama” by his supporters. Delhi Chief Minister instead of 'maternal uncle', the people should now trust the paternal uncle - that is Chacha (himself).  Moreover, the Congress could not be happy as Kejriwal also told the voters of Chhattisgarh that his party if voted to power in the naxal-infested state will give nine guarantees.

The word 'guarantees' itself is borrowed from Congress party's successful experiments in Karnataka Assembly elections and also Himachal Pradesh. 

All these, after Congress backed AAP and opposed the Delhi services tooth and nail during the just concluded Parliament session. In Rajya Sabha even the aging Dr Manmohan Singh came on wheelchair to vote against the Bill. 

Importantly, Kejriwal has even ignored the Opposition alliance's unofficial pledge in Patna that they should all avoid confrontation with friends and so put on hold any plan for expansion in 'new provinces' at least till the Lok Sabha elections.

 BJP veteran resigns from Assam Govt post over delimitation protest

In Assam, the conflict between 'new BJP' under Himanta Biswa Sarma and the old and traditional BJP has already started. Former Union Minister Rajen Gohain, a senior BJP leader, has resigned as the chairman of Assam Food and Civil Supplies Corporation to 'protest' the delimitation of the Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency.

In his resignation letter to Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Gohain said it would be impossible for the party to win from that seat. Gohain, who represented the Nagaon parliamentary seat four times, said his discussions with Sarma regarding the delimitation exercise did not bring any positive outcome.

Gohain said the recent delimitation process has left the Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency unwinnable for BJP candidates in the future.

"Despite having numerous rounds of discussions with you, I am afraid that my concerns and deep dissatisfaction on the way the Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency has been constituted did not bring any change whatsoever," said his letter.

So, before the war for 2024 began, has BJP decided 'not to win' Nagaon seat in Assam ? 

In West Bengal, in 2021 assembly polls, the BJP had bagged 30 out of 54 seats in north Bengal-Siliguri region. Now for Dhupguri by-election, Mamata Banerjee is desperate to wrest it from the BJP.

At the same time, the Congress and the CPI(M) are together in alliance. Some say, Didi and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee need to win Dhupguri to prove their potentials as 'big players' in the national politics of 2024.