India, the world’s most populous country, is experiencing a decline in fertility rates.
From a high of 6.18 children per woman in 1950, the fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.29 by 2050, dipping below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Experts say the pace of India’s demographic transition is slower than that of South Korea, the decline in fertility is nonetheless a cause for concern.
Growing Concerns: Indian leaders, including RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, have raised alarms about the potential consequences of a shrinking population, particularly as it may erode the country’s demographic advantage.
A youthful population has been a major driver of India’s economic growth in recent decades, but if the fertility rate continues to fall, India could face a similar demographic crunch in the future.
Fertility rate on decline in India: Is it headed the alarming South Korea way?
Is RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat right in suggesting 3 kids and more? DMK's Stalin and Chandrababu Naidu are also asking people to have more kids. Why?, wonders an article in 'India Today'.
In 2023, South Korea reached a shocking new milestone in its demographic trajectory--its fertility rate plummeted to an unprecedented low of 0.72 children per woman. This rate, far below the 2.1 replacement level necessary to maintain a stable population, signals an impending crisis.
While South Korea’s struggle with demographic decline is severe, it also serves as an early warning for other countries, particularly India, which is on a somewhat slower but equally concerning path.
IMPACT OF SOUTH KOREA'S FERTILITY DECLINE
South Korea’s rapid decline in fertility has serious implications for the nation’s future.
Experts predict that if the current trend persists, South Korea's population could shrink by half within the next 50 years.
This demographic shift is not merely about numbers; it signals a transformation in the workforce and an ageing society. A shrinking younger population and an expanding elderly cohort will create a host of economic challenges.
Workforce Shrinkage:
With fewer young people entering the labour market, South Korea may face a shortage of workers in key sectors, resulting in slower economic growth and potential labour shortages.
Strain on Social Services:
As the elderly population swells, demands on healthcare and pension systems will increase dramatically. The burden of supporting a growing number of retirees will fall on an ever-decreasing pool of younger workers, threatening the viability of South Korea’s social safety nets.
Changing Family Structures:
As family sizes shrink and marriage rates decline, traditional family structures may disintegrate, leading to shifts in social dynamics and cultural norms.
South Korea’s demographic crisis is part of a wider global trend. Fertility rates are falling across much of the world, particularly in developed countries. Although the global population exceeded 8 billion in 2022, the fertility rate is expected to decline to around 2.1 by 2050--just enough to replace the current generation.
However, many developed countries, particularly in Europe and East Asia, are already below replacement levels.
Ageing Populations:
The population of elderly citizens is growing rapidly, particularly in OECD nations. The increased demand for social services, healthcare, and pensions will challenge governments to find sustainable solutions.
Economic Consequences:
International financial agencies, such as Fitch Ratings, have warned that these demographic shifts will have long-term economic consequences. Slower economic growth, labor shortages, and increased government spending on social services could disrupt economic stability.
Economic Pressures:
Rising inflation, high living costs, and economic uncertainty make parenthood financially challenging. Many families are finding it difficult to balance the costs of raising children with the demands of an increasingly expensive society.
Gender Inequality:
Gender roles in India have traditionally placed much of the responsibility for child-rearing on women. As more women enter the workforce and seek education and career advancement, they are delaying marriage and childbirth, further contributing to the fertility decline.
Delayed Marriages & Changing Priorities:
As people delay marriage and have children later in life, fertility rates naturally fall. The rise in single-person households and changing attitudes towards family structure and work-life balance are also contributing factors.
Infertility:
Rising levels of infertility—driven by lifestyle factors, stress, and environmental influences—are making it harder for couples to have children, exacerbating the fertility decline.
HOW CAN THINGS CHANGE IN INDIA?
As both South Korea and India face demographic shifts, experts suggest several strategies to manage the potential challenges:
Economic Reforms:
India should focus on policies that foster economic growth and job creation, ensuring that the economy can support an ageing population and shrinking workforce. Reforms in social security and pension systems will be critical to provide for a growing elderly demographic.
Encouraging Family Growth:
South Korea and India could implement policies that incentivise larger families, such as tax breaks, subsidised childcare, and financial support for young families.
Addressing gender inequality in caregiving and work-life balance could also encourage higher fertility rates.
Improving Work-Life Balance: Encouraging male participation in household chores and child-rearing could help reduce the burden on women, making it easier for them to balance career and family life.
 |
| Blogger |
Education and Awareness: Public awareness campaigns that address changing societal norms around family and gender roles, alongside the promotion of healthy family policies, could support a shift in attitudes towards having children.
INDIA STARING AT AN AGEING POPULATION
By 2050, India could face a situation where the elderly population outnumbers children. This would undermine India’s demographic advantage, potentially destabilising its economy and social structure.
Without interventions to manage these shifts, India may find itself grappling with a similar set of challenges as South Korea and Japan, where an ageing population and shrinking workforce hinder economic growth and social stability.
India’s demographic shift, though occurring more slowly than South Korea’s, is a critical issue that warrants immediate attention.
Balancing population growth with economic stability will be key to ensuring that India avoids the pitfalls of a rapidly ageing society.
As South Korea’s fertility crisis demonstrates, countries must adapt their policies and structures to cope with the inevitable changes in population dynamics.
India, with its large and youthful population, still has a window of opportunity to take action before its demographic situation becomes as precarious as South Korea’s.
No comments:
Post a Comment