Tuesday, January 21, 2025

How 'likes and dislikes' change vis-a-vis International polity ..... Even Netas get confused .... do they ... or they play their own game ?

Post-Independent Jawaharlal Nehru mixed his foreign policy and also on domestic front to his liking, disliking and the nation is still coughing out a heavy price -- for instance in Jammu and Kashmir and also with regard joblessness, PSUs and promoting of dynastic culture and Jugadu system called Nepotism. 


Generally both he and his daughter Indira Gandhi went pro-Soviet Union. In the 1970s, "an united opposition" could unseat Indira Gandhi.







The Janata regime had Atal Bihari Vajpayee as the foreign minister and none other than L K Advani was the Information and Broadcasting Minister.


That dispensation was also called pro-America countering Indira's rather aggressive pro-Soviet Union (USSR). 


The "short-lived" Morarji Desai government fell quickly. The story goes that the Janata government had evidently forgotten that the Indian left including JNU students had campaigned for the pro-West Janata Party’s victory against a "pro-Moscow" Indira regime after Emergency in 1977.

Hence, as they argue, the Morarji Bhai-Vajpayee duo would not take chances. The Janata government banked heavily on the Jimmy Carter regime Washington.


And hence, "sharpshooters" were parked on the terrace of JNU buildings. -- it could be on the prodding by Carter’s intelligence inputs. 



 

the powerful I&B Minister under Morarji Desai 

(even AIR -- was being called Advani India Radio) 

James Earl Carter served as the 39th president of the United States from 1977 to 1981. 


He was the longest-lived president in U.S. history and the first to reach the age of 100.  Born October 1, 1924, he breathed his last on December 29th, 2024). Pursuing the political debate, we may note that Carter lost the election to Ronald Reagan.

Carter's tenure in office was marked by an economic malaise, a time of continuing inflation and recession and a 1979 energy crisis.

Morarji Desai was toppled and the subsequent polls paved the way for Indira  Gandhi’s return. 


The candid remarks may go: "While the Soviets lost the longer games in Afghanistan and even Iran where a CIA tip-off led to the mullahs decimating the pro-Moscow Tudeh Party.... but the USSR had emerged victorious from the turbulence in India." 


Even the turbulence and the breaking of the USSR did not hurt Moscow-New Delhi relations. Notwithstanding Modi's friendship with Obama and Trump and 'strategically' even with Washington under Joe Biden; the Indian PM still does not mind hugging Vladimir Putin. 





In February 2024, India's incumbent foreign minister Dr S Jaishankar said - Russia has never hurt India's interests.  

In Nov 2024, Dr Jaishankar was speaking to Sky News Australia and was asked by Sharri Markson in an interview whether India recognises the "angst" its relationship with Russia causes Australia, Dr Jaishankar replied, 

"I don't think we have given cause for any angst. In this day and age, countries don't have exclusive relationships."

"If I were to use that logic, I would say so many countries have relationship with Pak. Look at the angst it should cause me," he said.






Once the Cold War got over, India also 'done away with' the Non-Aligned Movement.


India is now a dependable US ally. Indo-US  ties have graduated to the level of Quad in 2017 with Australia and Japan also being part of it.

At the same time, two other fora also are quite relevant. One of them is BRICS and the other is RIC (Russia, India and China).


When George W. Bush was in bad odour across the globe and even among Americans for invading Iraq and mishandling Taliban, Osama and Afghanistan; in 2006 Dr Manmohan Singh (a Congressman to the core) told Bush .. 

"The people of India deeply love you." 

This was how visiting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh spoke of US President George W Bush while praising him effusively after their 40-minute meeting at the Oval office in White House on September 25, 2008. He was flagging Bush's 'important and historic' role in forging several bilateral initiatives including the landmark Indo-US civil nuclear deal.




The influential CPI-M was supporting Dr Singh's (otherwise remote controlled by Sonia) Govt.

Marxist Prakash Karat gave a quotable quote. “Speak for yourself,” vis-a-vis Manmohan Singh. 









Dr Manmohan Singh also had said, "When history is written, I think it will be recorded that President George W Bush played a historic role in bringing our two democracy closer to each other."







Discussing further, we need to understand that in triangular dynamics between RIC -- Russia, India and China of Xi Jinping, Beijing will do a smart thing to accept closer India-Russia friendship.


Otherwise, China may have to deal more tougher situations when India will be closer to the US and at the time Russia could be lost to the Indo-Pacific geopolitics. 


Following two anecdotes will explain the dynamics better.   


In August of 2023, as India and China held their yet another round of commander-level talks, reports surfaced that Russia will hand over the S400 missile defence system to India.

This caused public outrage in China.

Prior to that in June 2023, when China and some other G20 member states boycotted the G20 Tourism Summit hosted by India in Kashmir, Russia chose to ignore the boycott. 


In 2024,  Bangladesh crisis made India accommodate the ousted Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina. Observers spoke about 'deep state'. Post his election defeat, Joe Biden felicitated George Soros and even Nicky Haley flayed the move. 


Trump is expected to be friendly to the Narendra Modi-regime but his moves against immigrants and higher tariffs would leave many leaking their wounds. 


ends 





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