Slowest annual GDP growth rate since Covid19 ::::: India's GDP growth may hit 4-year low of 6.4%

It may be noted that the projection is even lower than the recent Reserve Bank estimate of 6.6% for the current fiscal year ending March 2025.

India's Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been estimated to slow down to 6.4% in the financial year 2024-25, as compared to 8.2% in 2023-24, government data released on Tuesday, December 7, 2025, showed.

The advance estimate, which plays a crucial role in Budget calculations, follows the July-September quarter shocker of 5.4% GDP growth. This surprising figure prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to revise its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 6.6%, down from the earlier 7.2%.

Real GDP at constant prices is estimated to rise to Rs 184.88 lakh crore in FY25, from Rs 173.82 lakh crore in FY24. Nominal GDP at current prices is projected to grow by 9.7%, reaching Rs 324.11 lakh crore, compared to Rs 295.36 lakh crore last year.  

"Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2% in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24. Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24," said the NSO data.

This is the slowest annual GDP growth rate since the pandemic, when it fell down to -5.8% during the financial year 2020-21.  

Despite the slowdown, key sectors show promise. Agriculture and allied activities are forecast to grow by 3.8%, up from 1.4% in FY24. The construction sector is projected to expand by 8.6%, while financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to grow by 7.3%.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), a key indicator of household spending, is anticipated to grow by 7.3% in FY25, compared to 4.0% in FY24. Meanwhile, Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) is estimated to rebound with a growth rate of 4.1%, up from 2.5% last fiscal.

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