Changing games in South Asia : Donald Trump may make news and new-waves in this region .... Vis-a-vis Bangladesh and of course Namo and Xi Jinping

Pakistan itself is not in good shape. But some people and nations do not learn any lesson.

Thus the Pakistani vessels have already docked in Bangladesh and the interim administration in that country has invite Pakistani Army personnel to train its soldiers.

Moreover, Bangladesh has already experienced significant Chinese influence through infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

blogger : in Dhaka Indian Classical music fest 2017

The return of Donald Trump as the US President suggests the incumbent rulers in Dhaka would be unnerved.  The Govt of India would also heave a sigh of relief if any 'Christian-state' project carving out of three nations India, Bangladesh and Myanmar is dropped from Washington's agenda.

Moreover, ousted Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina had good working rapport with Trump. A healthy axis between Narendra Modi-Trump and Hasina could also bring normalcy both in violence-hit Manipur and also Bangladesh.

Bangladesh's interim ruler Muhammad Yunus had even gone to the extent of calling Trump’s victory in the US presidential election in 2016 against Hillary Clinton “a solar eclipse … black days”.

Trump is not really known as someone to forgive such criticisms easily. As for Democrats, now everybody questions their intent.  

There is already a controversy over Joe Biden giving special honour to a man called George Soros.

American politician Nikki Haley said, “Giving George Soros the Presidential Medal of Freedom is another slap in the face of America... Sixteen days is a long time until the inauguration. What is he capable of sliding in next? January 20th can't come soon enough.”

It is not out of place to maintain that Bangladesh has been caught in a quagmire of political and economic crises since the fall of the Hasina government in August 2024. 

The 'wrong' kinds of people have taken charge there.  Even a desperate looking pro-Muslim Mamata Banerjee was forced to react when jingoistic statements were made by some former Bangladeshi service personnel

— claiming that they could easily capture Indian territory.

India would not be ‘having lollipops’ should external forces try to occupy our land, said Mamata Banerjee, whose chief quality to be in power in Kolkata is her mass appeal among Muslims - radicals or otherwise.  

However, Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman has tried to do some damage control.

India is an important neighbour, and that Bangladesh will not do anything that goes against India’s strategic interests, he tried to assure. 

Hasina, Modi and Mamata : 2015 

The Sheikh Hasina-Narendra Modi bond worked well for both the countries. But the changes in Bangladesh have opened windows for Pakistan to poke nose.  

If the new government in Bangladesh decides to pivot away from India and seek closer ties with other countries especially Pakistan, India-backed infra projects will be harmed.

Additionally, they say - the instability in Dhaka might make it difficult to maintain the momentum for such cross-border projects.  

New Delhi has pumped in sizable amount in several infrastructure projects in Bangladesh—roads, railways, and power supply. 

The Indian government has provided concessional loans for projects like the construction of bridges, roads, and power transmission lines, which aim to improve connectivity between the two countries.  

The Bilateral trade has grown substantially with India exporting a wide range of goods, including machinery, textiles, and chemicals. 

Bangladesh exports primarily raw materials like jute, garments, and seafood. 

Political instability following the regime change has disrupted this economic relationship, affecting supply chains, tariff policies, and border infrastructure that facilitates trade.

 

In 2020 the anti-CAA protest has harmed further prospects in Indo-Bangladesh projects. But when it comes to ouster of Sheikh Hasina, things have only worsened.  

In he words of former army chief, Gen M M Naravane (retd), the influx of illegal immigrants poses several challenges to India with the ever-looming danger of demographic inversion—a threat first flagged by the former Governor of Assam, Lt Gen SK Sinha (Retd) in the 1990s. 

"Many districts in Assam, particularly those South of the Brahmaputra adjoining Bangladesh, now have a Muslim majority. From a security standpoint, it is feared that illegal migrants could include extremists, criminals, or agents working for hostile foreign powers."  

Ms Hasina is in Delhi despite a request for her extradition. Another former PM of Bangladesh and Nationalist Party chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia has landed in London for treatment. 

Lately, people are talking about US intentions in Bangladesh. In 2023, the then Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina had told a press conference : “I don’t want to return to power by leasing out St Martin’s Island”.

Located within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Bangladesh and giving access to valuable marine resources like oil, gas, and fish; the island's proximity is a potential offshore oil and gas reserves.

India was eyeing this from an overall foreign policy point of view for all economic and geo-strategic importance.

The friendship with Hasina (had she continued in power) would have given certain advantage to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's plans. 

ends