Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Faultline matters a lot in geo-strategic issues : You leave a 'vacuum' and there will be others to chip in ::: Pakistan makes deep penetration in Bangladesh


"India not only spent seven thousand crore of rupees for Liberation War of Bangladesh but also sacrificed lives of 3630 officers and jawan of Indian army, where 213 officers and jawans were missing and about 9856 officers and jawans were wounded. 

The bloods of these soldiers are mixed with the soil of Independent Bangladesh". -- 

book ' Contribution of Tripura in Liberation War of Bangladesh' penned by Salam Azad, writer and human rights activist, Dhaka


Time maybe running out, New Delhi has to act quickly .... Pakistan makes deep penetration in Bangladesh 


New Delhi/Guwahati


External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said in Washington that he had brief discussion on the current situation in Bangladesh with newly-appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.


"Yes, we had a brief discussion on Bangladesh. I don't think it's appropriate that I get into more details," Jaishankar told a group of Indian reporters.

In Delhi, External Affairs Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said :


"We keep an eye on all activities around the country and in the region, as well as all activities affecting national security, and the government will take appropriate steps".




Blogger : Dhaka - 2017 



The remarks came close on the heels of a high-profile delegation level visit from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to Bangladesh.

Post-August, Bangladesh is a 'different country' for India in more ways than one.

Major General Shahid Amir Afsar led the Pakistani military delegation. 


For the first time in several decades, the head of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, visited Bangladesh. 

ISI chief Lt Gen Asim Malik arrived in Dhaka via Dubai and interacted among others by Lt Gen Muhammad Faizur Rahman, Quarter Master General (QMG) of the Bangladesh Army. 

Lt. Gen Rahman for his part is known for his leanings towards Islamists.


Obviously there is a speculation on the real purpose behind such a well publicised visit.  

It is possible that an intelligence network will be established or streamlined between Dhaka and Islamabad. This does augur matters of concern for security of the northeastern states of India.  


Since the turmoil following former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ouster, Muhammad Yunus-led Bangladesh has grown comfortably closer to Pakistan. 


Bangladesh's decision to grant a visa to any Pakistani citizen without security clearance has further raised eyebrows.

Faultline matters a lot in geo-strategic matters, you leave a 'vacuum' and there will be others to chip in.

This is precisely happening in Bangladesh vis-a-vis all external players - Pakistan, China and even the US and the so-called 'deep state'.  


“The rapid Bangladeshi and Pakistani army officers’ visits at this time is rather surprising. It indicates a hurried move to achieve a military-security objective within a short period of time. 


However, there is no knowing what the Indian response to these back-to-back meetings and their likely objectives on the ground (in Bangladesh) will have in the coming weeks and months,” a retired Bangladeshi general, requesting anonymity, was quoted by NorthEast News. 


It ought to be also clarified that the Bangladesh's cooperation with India on countering Indian insurgent groups is not quite a Sheikh Hasina-Narendra Modi bond phenomenon. 

There was heavy crackdown against the Indian insurgent groups by the perceived to be “pro-India” Awami League government in Bangladesh even during the stint of Manmohan Singh government in Delhi in 2010 and 2011.


Key ULFA rebel leaders from Assam including the likes of Anup Chetia; ULFA  chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa; foreign secretary Sashadhar Choudhury; finance secretary Chitraban Hazarika; and deputy chief of military operations Raju Barua were handed over to India between 2009 and 2015.




However, it is a known fact that the Paresh Baurah faction of ULFA has still not agreed for talks with New Delhi.  

Pakstan's closer ties with Bangladesh post-Hasina ouster has understandably given a booster dosage and enhanced bargaining power for the Paresh Baruah-led ULFA faction.


This group is still hiding and operating from the jungles along the India-Myanmar border and also has some associations with elements in China.


There are chances now Pakistan and Bangladesh will seek enhanced ties between Karachi and Chittagong ports in Bangladesh. The Chittagong port is vital even for Indian trade ties. Located in Bangladesh's port city of Chittagong and on the banks of the Karnaphuli River, the port handles over 70 percent of Bangladesh's export-import trade. 


Security analysts say that had India got control over Chittagong port in 1947, the entire about eastern and northeastern region would have been different.


The Chittagong Port is much nearer to India's northeastern region than its own port of Kolkata. 

The Chittagong Port is also easier to access through proper multimodal connectivity, while one can reach Kolkata port and the city only via the overland narrow Siliguri corridor -- called the ‘Chicken’s Neck’. 


Chittagong Port would have actually played a game-changer for India’s Act East and Neighbourhood First Policy.



But the reality of 2025 January is different.  

As Pakistan bolsters ties with Bangladesh, are we to pose the same old question, did we 'mistake' or was it a master stroke that India banked a lot on its friendship with Sheikha Hasina and her party Awami League. 

Two elements could have worked -- shortsightedness of New Delhi policy makers since 2009-10 and a little bit of "big-headedness" that we can't be wrong.

 

On the other hand, the establishment of direct sea links, strained since the 1971 independence war when Bangladeshi nationalists broke away from West Pakistan, has marked a historic thawing of relations between Dhaka and Islamabad. 


The new regime in Dhaka has removed previous restrictions that mandated physical inspections of cargo from Pakistan.  

Pakistan will now begin training the Bangladesh Army in February 2025, strengthening military ties between the two nations. 

Bangladesh will also reportedly join Pakistan in the "Aman 2025" joint naval exercises at Karachi port.


All these have potential to reshape the power dynamics in South Asia.



Indira with Mujib : Those were the days 



Flashback:


The then Chief Minister of Tripura, Shachindra Lal Singh's contribution was very important not only that his participation convinced the central government to take up the issue quickly but also on 29th March, 1971 at the Assembly hall, all the parties discussed the freedom movement of Bangladesh. 


Shachindra Lal Singh in a historic speech expressed full support of the people of Tripura towards the struggling people of Bangladesh.


"Our heart goes out in sympathy for the people of East Pakistan at this hour of their trial. I may reiterate that, we stand for democracy and Socialism and we shall condemn any force that stand in the way of these noble ideals in any part of the world," he had said. 


ends 


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