The Big Picture debate is .... Amid 'Modi Guarantee' in Indian elections; a Robust Opposition still a mirage
In about a fortnight, the first round of voting will take place on April 19 to elect India's new Lok Sabha - the 543-member House of the people. Various surveys and pre poll analysis by pundits give incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi a huge advantage. In many quarters a strong impression has been given that there is 'no real competition' or threat to the Prime Minister who had wrested power in 2014.
There is talk about Congress leader Rahul Gandhi being a 'liability' and hence he has not been directly projected as PM-in-waiting unlike 2019.
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| Modi with Rajnath - his Defence Minister::: It was Rajnath who named Namo as BJP's PM candidate in 2013 |
However, there are others who say the BJP leadership and the Prime Minister betraying (displaying) some anxiety and hence have weaponised law enforcement agencies, enforcement directorate and tax officials on political rivals. Delhi Chief Minister and leader of 'Aam Aadmi Party and also a formeranti corruption crusader of 2011-12, Arvind Kejriwal was sent for Judicial custody till April 15.
He was arrested last month in connection with a liquor policy scam and his arrest was condemned even by the US and Germany.
In fact, Kejriwal himself moved applications in a trial court on Monday (April 1) seeking permission to have special diet, medicines, books including Geeta and Ramayana and a religious locket which he is wearing, while being in judicial custody.
The last decade in India has been a typical 'Modi era' and his rule marked a major departure from various long lasting facets of Indian parliamentary democracy essentially cherishing pluralism and 'tolerance' to dissent. But both Modi critics and admirers say -- the worst or the 'best' -- as one would see from different prisms- is yet to come. And, they say it could come in the next five years if Modi's ambitions are fulfilled. He is eyeing a brute majority with 400 plus seats for the BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The NDA was floated in the 1990s when former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was at the helm. Vajpayee was the moderate face of Hindutva politics -- who even had a personal liking for 'Gandhian socialism'. But Modi is a hard-liner and a real tough nut.
He thrives in strong Hindutva politics and mixes his development and welfare in governance with a strong dosage of Hindu communalism in a country of 1.45 billion people with nearly 80 of them are Hindus.
As a result the minorities in many places feel threatened and they include Catholics also besides Muslims -- who are sadly blamed for India's partition in 1947 when Pakistan was carved out of a Hindu majority sub-continent. "I say, the worst or the best of the Modi-led regime will come in the next few years depending on how one looks at it. He has been a hyper active Hindutva leader already but if Modi musters an enhanced mandate of 400 plus seats, PM Modi will go for pushing some radical changes in legal and social trajectories.
India may opt for a Presidential form of politics and the Hindu way of life, social practice and teachings may be imposed in school curriculum, social functions and also in administration," says social scientist Ramakanto Shanyal.
Indian history of communal politics has a peculiar past, he says. "In 1905 when Bengal under British rule
was partitioned in the name of religion; intellectuals revolted. But in 1947, the same intellectuals accepted
the partition. Again after independence, socialism and pluralism with protection guaranteed for minorities
were taken as a norm; but in the last 10 years under Modi, there have been pro-Hindutva approaches for
everything".
"Middle class is more communal today and Hindu families are even shy of employing Muslim
house maids and gardeners. This communal journey will be more strident, more Hindu rituals will be visible in public
life and as Masjids may be crushed down, people will clap," says Shanyal.
Agrees Ashutosh Talukdar, another keen observer in communally sensitive state of Assam.
"Modi has successfully weakened the opposition by various means. Some of it is created by opposition parties
themselves, but the Prime Minister has used official agencies to file corruption cases and order raids.
Forget India's minorities; various opposition leaders including from Congress are today threatened
and feel alarmed," says Talukdar.
Some of these allegations could be true as no less than Congress leader Rahul Gandhi recently claimed
that a senior leader from Maharashtra 'cried' before his mother Sonia Gandhi (former Congress president)
and then switched over to the BJP. The said leader had his name in an infamous housing scam.
Congress leader Sanjay Das in Meghalaya told UCA News "It is true we have a high unemployment rate across
India. But Modi is not bothered as even widespread criticism is unlikely to significantly change the election
results...At least this is what BJP leaders feel. They can misuse power and our worst apprehension about
the hacking of EVMs". In today's India, nothing is ruled out because, "no one can really say no to
Narendra Modi".
Here are a few instances which substantiate Sanjay's apprehensions.
Top Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was convicted on 'defamation charges' last year for insulting
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and was disqualified. The conviction was later suspended by the
Supreme Court.
The Congress party has said now it can’t campaign properly because Indian income tax officials have frozen
its bank accounts due to a tax dispute.
The Modi government took action against AAP leader and a prominent opposition face, Arvind Kejriwal.
Another Chief Minister in Jharkhand Hemant Soren was also put behind bars.
The Modi cabinet enacted a new law that gives the prime minister a seat on the selection committee for the
three-member Indian Election Commission.
The arrest of Kejriwal has of course rekindled India’s ‘democratic backslide’ debate.
According to an estimate, the Enforcement Directorate that tracks money laundering and financial defalcation
has summoned, questioned, or raided nearly 150 opposition politicians since PM Modi assumed office in 2014.
Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury says some of the ED actions were justified as was the case against
Education Minister in West Bengal (where rival Mamata Banerjee is in power) but in some cases arrest of Chief
Ministers and others suggest Modi's "desperation" to return to power for a third term.
Moreover, the Income Tax notices and alleged 'freezing' of Congress accounts only show that the BJP
wants to leave opposition space 'leaderless' and even starve of minimum necessary money during
election season.
On Sunday all major opposition parties addressed a rally in Delhi. Rahul Gandhi said the saffron party
"won't win more than 180 seats if there is no EVM hacking".
"Do you all see IPL matches, .... there is a term 'match-fixing' in cricket. Narendra Modi is trying to do
match-fixing in this election. Their slogan of crossing 400, without EVM, without match-fixing is not
going to cross 180," he said.
The rally was also called to extend solidarity with 'arrested Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal'.
Kejriwal's wife Sunita also addressed the gathering and said: “This fascism of BJP will not work in India.
We will fight and we will win.”
Of course a number of provincial party leaders shared the stage with Rahul Gandhi and Sunita
Kejriwal. They tried to give an impression that they have "no differences" regarding which party would contest
which seats to take on Modi's powerful juggernaut with a unity of purpose.
However, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, considered a powerful provincial leader against Modi, in an election rally in her native state said: Communist Party of India (Marxists) and the Congress (of Rahul Gandhi) are in league with the BJP in her state'.
"Each vote you give to CPI-M will go to the BJP, each vote for Congress is casting your vote in favour of the BJP," she said, showing all that is not good enough in terms of opposition unity.
Political observer Paplu Vatsya in Modi's native state Gujarat says, "Modi is nervous and he can be defeated if opposition comes united for one-on-one contest. In seats where Congress is taking BJP in a straight contest, Modi may lose. He needs to give away 40-50 seats of 303 tally he had in 2019; and Modi is finished".
However, others say things can still only be wishful thinking. In Uttar Pradesh parties such as Bahujan Samaj Party of a former Chief Minister Ms Mayawati and AIMIM of Muslim leader Asaduddin Owaisi will
harm Congress and socialist party alliance. UP sends 80 MPs and in 2014 and 2019 - the BJP had ensured
good performance in this state.
However, the Prime Minister and his BJP feel exemplary actions against corruption and putting powerful leaders behind bars will go in favour as people of India want a corruption free governance system.
"I am not just probing the corrupt. It is my guarantee that whoever has looted the people of my country, I am returning the stolen wealth of my people back to them....".
"This election is between the BJP-led NDA, which is fighting against corruption, and the other group, which is fighting to save the corrupt," Modi said kick-starting his Lok Sabha election campaign in Uttar Pradesh from Meerut.
There is also another factor that is making Modi go against Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal.
The AAP of Kejriwal has the image of a party that plays 'soft Hindutva'. He can appeal to the Hindu vote bank and dent the BJP’s support base.
The opposition is certainly not robust but they expect miracles. And in Indian elections - the past is a baromater where powerful and popular leaders were defeated.
Congress Prime Minister Indira Gandhi lost power in 1977 after she had imposed national Emergency and reined in the independent, democratic institutions. Her son Rajiv Gandhi lost the poll in 1989 over the issue of corruption and in 2004 BJP's Atal Bihari Vajpayee was voted out by the faceless voters over the issue of jobless growth.
BJP's hyped 'India Shining' campaign had boomeranged in 2004.
ends
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