Small facts, Big Picture
Out of 102 seats, Congress in 2019 had contested 63 seats -- It polled more than 50 percent in 10 seats.
In 36 seats, the Opposition polled ---- vote share between 30 and 50 percent.
BJP contested 60 and won 40. It secured more than 50 percent votes in 34 seats. In 19 seats it secured votes between 30 and 50 percent of votes.
Out of 102 seats going to the polls on April 19, Friday -- the Opposition I.N.D.I alliance has 49 seats and BJP-NDA holds 46 seats in the present Lok Sabha.
BJP-led NDA Vote share stands at about 42 per cent; --
BJP is contesting 17 new seats this time. Majority in Tamil Nadu -- where BJP's electoral success has not been very successful.
Congress has three seats Kariabor in Assam, Shillong in Meghalaya and Chhindwara in Madhya Pradesh -- which the party has won three times - 2009, 2014 and 2019.
There are 20 swing seats ::: means parties have won these in 2019 but not in 2014.
In contrast, BJP has six seats -- which it won in 2009, 2014 and 2019. They are Jabalpur, Churu, Bikaner, Sidhi, Pilibhit (in Uttar Pradesh) and Balaghat.
Can these change the entire game?
Day 1 of Polling 2024 : BJP's 'Annamalai gamble' in Tamil Nadu ... a lot depends on this southern state. All eyes on northeastern states including Manipur
Key seats going for polls in Assam (5) Kaziranga Sonitpur Lakhimpur Dibrugarh Jorhat
Bihar (4) Aurangabad, Gaya (SC) Nawada, Jamui
Chhattisgarh (1) Bastar
Madhya Pradesh Sidhi, Shahdol, Jabalpur, Mandla ST, Balaghat,
Chhindwara
Maharashtra (5) ... Ramtek,
Nagpur
Bhandara - Gondiya Gadchiroli - Chimur Chandrapur
BJP's Annamalai gamble
Annamalai is contesting from Coimbatore. The former IPS officer is locked in a contest against DMK, the AIADMK and the Tamil nationalist, Naam Tamilar Katchi.
April 19 - the first day of the Lok Sabha polls will test the faith that Narendra Modi and the BJP have reposed in Annamalai in Tamil Nadu.
Phase 1 of voting on April 18 will see 21 states and UTs head to the polls to elect 102 MPs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'South Push' and the BJP's ambition of 'Mission 50' out of 130 seats from southern states will be tested as the DMK-ruled state goes to polls on Friday, April 19.
The BJP, led by K Annamalai, has undeniably put up a spirited fight so far.
Modi himself visited Tamil Nadu nine times, and held rallies at Chennai, Coimbatore, Vellore, and Tirunelveli.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led UPA, won a landslide victory, taking 38 of the 39 seats in the state.
K Annamalai, the BJP's President in Tamil Nadu, has led the BJP-NDA campaign in the state. He is among the candidates whose fate will be sealed by the voters along with the former Telangana and Puducherry Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan, who has been called back by the party into electoral politics.
Ms Soundararajan is up against a DMK candidate at Chennai South, with the Prime Minister's message of development, allegations of corruption against DMK and Tamil honour. Modi also tried a Kashi connect and tried to woo the voters in more ways than one.
The choice of K Annamalai from Coimbatore, attributed to the significance of the seat for the BJP, would be the hottest seat to watch.
The BJP may appear strong today. But in 2015 - Naredra Modi had lost two crucial battles in Delhi and in Bihar.
In 2016, barring Assam, the saffron party did not have any success.
The Prime Minister had complicated his journey further when he announced demonetisation on Nov 8, 2016.
Then the GST enforced from July 1, 2017 again agitated his support base.
The BJP almost lost Gujarat to Congress; but the opposition could not step up the assault.
Besides the Congress, most of the 'prime minister aspirants' from the opposition camp, including the likes of BSP chief Mayawati, suffered major setbacks in the 2014 and 2019 polls.
In Telangana, BRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao nurtured such high ambitions. He even renamed his party but in 2024 he is out of power in the state. And worse, his daughter K Kavitha is behind bars on Delhi liquor policy scam.
In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP supremo N Chandrababu always played a key role in national politics. He is back in the BJP-led NDA fold. Nitish Kumar of JD-U has a similar legacy of love-hate relationship with Modi.
Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal still remains a strong competitor. But apparently stakes are high this year due to Sandeshkhali and allegations of corruption. In 2019, she gave away 18 seats to the BJP.
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| pray time or Paying the price ?
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Stakes are high in Rajasthan ::
FARM LAWS, AGNIVEER COULD HIT BJP IN RAJASTHAN
The first phase, in which 12 of Rajasthan's 25 seats are going to the polls, is the most riveting for the desert state.
It is the Sekhawati region of Sikar, Jhunjhunu and Churu that will see a close battle. Ruled earlier by Sekhawati Rajputs, the Agniveer recruitment scheme and farm issues might pose a big challenge for the BJP.
In Sikar, the CPI(M) of the INDIA bloc is taking on the BJP. Amra Ram is challenging Swami Sumedhanand, who is facing anti-incumbency of two terms. Locals aren't really happy with Sumedhanand as he wasn't accessible to the people, while his CPI(M) rival, who is from the Jat community, has a strong local connect.
TMC ATTEMPT TO SNATCH NORTH BENGAL BACK
Amongst the 102 seats going to the polls on Friday, there are three seats in West Bengal that will vote on Friday. They are all in North Bengal.
Alipurduars, Cooch Behar and Jalpairuri seats, which the BJP swept in 2019, will be a test for the BJP to retain them, against the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress.
What makes the contest interesting is that a major chunk of assembly seats in these Lok Sabha constituencies were swept by the Trinamool Congress in the 2021 assembly polls.
The TMC, thus, would like to continue its 2021 performance in the three seats of Uttar Banga, and try to undo the debacle of 2019, where BJP candidates, Nisith Pramanik, John Barla and Jayanta Kumar Roy, respectively won Cooch Behar, Alipurduars and Jalpaiguri.
In giving the BJP a tough fight, Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee have vigorously campaigned in the region, accusing the BJP of neglecting the people and the development of North Bengal.
The BJP, through its CAA and anti-outsider pitch in the illegal migrant-infested North Bengal, will also find a challenge from the Trinamool who has carefully pitched its candidates belonging to specific caste groups, and the TMC's announcement of several North Bengal-specific projects, right before the polls.
Therefore, the onus is now on the BJP, if it can retain the seats with corruption allegations against the TMC and stressting on the Modi government's developmental initiatives.
The polling also will take place in Nagaland and other parts of the northeast. Outer Manipur is the only parliamentary segment in the country that will have two rounds of voting - one on Friday and the other during the second phase of voting.
A renowned global rights body, Civicus Monitor has stated in its latest (April 17) report - “India: Fundamental freedoms deteriorate further in Modi’s second term” -- that the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) was used to implicate and imprison activists in politically motivated cases such as the Bhima Koregaon and Delhi riots.
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