Agra/Hathras (Uttar Pradesh)
Mainpuri - welcome to a key hub in the Yadav heartland.Mulayam Singh Yadav won from the constituency in 1996 to become India'sDefence Minister under H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral. Since then, this has been aYadav-family bastion. In 2022 by-poll after Mulayam's death the seat was won by his daughter-in-law Ms Dimple.
The lawmaker wife of Samajwadi Party chief is not a Yadav by birth; but that's not the issue and hence she has been fielded again. This is one seat -- the BJP may not struggle to wrest amid a hyped Ram Mandir campaign. Perhaps they know, it is much more than a tough seat.
Besides Mulayam and Ms Dimple Yadav, three others from Yadav clan have represented this.-- 1998 and 1999 Balram Singh Yadav, 2004 (by-poll) Dharmendra Yadav and 2014 by-pollTej Pratap Singh Yadav.
In 2024, SP nominee Dimple Yadav is pitted against BJP's Jaiveer Singh and Shiv Prasad Yadav of BSP.
The issue here could be development, lack of development and a case of typical 'alleged negligence'; but voters know that they have to back Netaji's Bahu - that is Dimple Yadav. But under Yogi Adityanath's leadership in the assembly polls, BJP could pick up two assembly segments falling under the Mainpuri parliamentary segment.
They are Mainpuri (Jaiveer Singh) and Bhongaon (Ram Naresh Agnihotri).
Importantly among the five segments former CM and Samajwadi chief Akhilesh Yadav represents Karhal assembly and his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav represents Jaswantnagar assembly.So, in other words, the family prestige will be at stake.
The Agra-Firozabad and Mainpuri section or sub-region was once knownas the Yadav heartland. But since 2014 - as BJP's penetration deepened,there are changes on the ground.
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| Blogger's piece on UP polls in Telugu newspaper Eenadu |
Firozabad has often been a shaky ground for Mulayam's party. In 2009, Akhilesh Yadav had won the seat but after he vacated it, actor-turned-politicianRaj Babbar won it on Congress ticket. SP got it back in 2014 but in 2019, it was lost toBJP's 2019 Chandrasen Jadon.
In 2019, Akhilesh's uncle, Shivpal Singh Yadav formed a new partyPSP(L) and polled 91,869 votes. BJP nominee could humble Akshay Yadav, son of Ram Gopal Yadav, by a margin of 28, 781.
The Shivpal factor is this time back with the family.Akshay Yadav is again contesting and lately the party got a boost as some Kushwacaste voters from BSP joined Samajwadi Party.The BJP has dropped its sitting MP Jadon and instead fielded Thakur Vishwadeep SIngh, the son of former MP Thakur Brajraj Singh.
The 10 parliamentary seats going to the polls in UP in the third phase on May 7are - Agra, Aonla, Badaun, Bareilly, Etah, Fatehpur Sikri,Hathras and Sambhal besides Firozabad and Mainpuri.
In Sambhal, the stage is almost set for a triangular contest between SP's Zia ur Rahman Barq, Parmeshwar Lal Saini of BJP and the BSP nominee Shaulat Ali
The seat had hit headlines in 1996 when D. P. Yadav had won it as a candidateof Bahujan Samaj Party - then under Kanshi Ram. In 1998, Mulayam Singh Yadav won it for his Samajwadi Party and in 2004, it was Ram Gopal Yadav again ofSamajwadi Party. In 2009, Shafiqur Rahman Barq won it as Bahujan Samaj Party candidate.But in 2014, the strong Modi wave helped BJP get the seat for its nomineeSatyapal Singh Saini. And yet again in 2019 Shafiqur Rahman Barq won it andthis time he was with the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party.
In Hathras, a gangrape made news in 2020. But in 2024, even the Samajwadi Party which is campaigning on women’s safety is not talking about the rape and death episode for fear of 'antagonising' the substantial upper caste vote in this reserved SC seat.
In 2019, when the SP and BSP were allies, the SP’s candidate here was placed second.The Dalits and Thakurs could be around 3 lakh each in the Hathras Lok Sabha segmentfollowed by 2 lakh Brahmins, 1.80 lakh Vaishyas and 80,000 Muslims. The upper caste votes, apart from the support for it by non-Jatav Dalits, has always helped to make it a BJP bastion.
The BJP has won Hathras consecutively since 1991. In 2009, the RLD won here as a BJP ally. The BSP finished runner-up in each poll between 1996 and 2014.
In 2024, the BJP's candidate to sweat it out is Anoop Pradhan and his rival will beJasveer Valmiki of SP.
In Agra, Ram Shankar Katheria of BJP had won the seat in 2009 and 2014. In 2019,BJP replaced Katheria and fielded S. P. Singh Baghel. The move paid in dividendsThree major communities who decide political journey for the Taj city are Dalits, Jatavsand Muslims. In political circles locally it is also called the Dalit capital of Uttar Pradesh.
SP's Suresh Kardam will try to woo mainly Jatav and Muslim voters and BSP'.
Pooja Amrohi will bank on Dalit votes. On the other hand, BJP has banked yet again on the incumbent MP S P SIngh Baghel who of course will try his luckyet again on welfare schemes and the powerful Modi factor.
It can be pointed out that in two consecutive polls - 1999 and 2004 - SP'sRaj Babbar had won the seat. Notably, for Baghel, the victory marginin 2019 was around 2 lakh votes.
People in some of these segments and roadside tea stalls irrespective of caste, genderand religion throw up reflections of political scenarios as they share anecdotes and theirpolitical views. One fruit seller at Agra says, "I am a Muslim and would hate to vote for Modi.In 2014 and 2019, Modi made a lot of promises. He delivered some; and failed some. Buthe fulfilled all promises made to Hindus and failed on all promises made for Muslims".
He further says, "We lost the Babri Masjid....but we have to protect the Shahi Idgah at Mathuraand also other Masjids".
However, Hindu voters even belonging to a small caste such as Nai say the BJP is widely expected to win a third term in office.
"Under Modi, the Hindu has gained confidence. Today the common Hindus are creating the genesis of a new history. This election is also linked to civilisationalstruggles," says Bheem Manohar.
His argument was that in the face of a resurgent BJP onslaught, Samajwadi and BSP were too weak and too small to stem the rise of Hindutva politics. "It is the Congress alone which could fight,"but he also hastened to add that the Congress never tried to give a fight to the Modi-Yogi duo in Uttar Pradesh.
Badaun in this region is another important segment and it has quite a dramatic political history.In 1989, Sharad Yadav of Janata Dal had won. In 1991, Swami Chinmayanand wrestedit for the BJP. But between Bharatiya Janata Party1996 and 2004, four elections, Saleem Iqbal Shervani of Samajwadi Party
won the seat. In 2009 and even in 2004, it was Dharmendra Yadav of SP.
However, in 2019, Sanghmitra Maurya won the seat for the Lotus party.But she has been replaced and the seat will be fought by BJP's Durvijay Sakyaand Samajwadi nominee Aditya Yadav.
In Bareilly, BJP is banking on its sitting MP and a former ministerSantosh Gangwar. He has been winning the seat since 2014. In 2009,Congress candidate Praveen Singh Aron had won it for the Congress.This year, Aron is the Samajwadi Party nominee.Chhatrapal Gangwar MP, Chhatrapal Gangwar is a former UP minister of state for revenue.
Interesting contest is on the cards in Etah and Fatehpur Sikri.
The BJP’s campaign has also pushed a narrative of India emerging as a world world and how the Modi government has attained economic growthand also making India as the world’s fastest-growing economy.
However, these days the people in this region are also debating the Inheritance Tax Act.Some share strong views on the Modi regime and say puttng Opposition leaders behind barsseemed to be a working formula of the BJP-led NDA government in the centre.
Some also criticised the Modi government for even allegedly undermining the independence of institutions such as the Election Commission and abusing power through agencies such as the ED.
The polls in 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh on May 7 will decide many things, analysts say adding, 'March to Delhi' is always possible in India via Uttar Pradesh and the erstwhile Yadav heartland
However, people also complain that the opposition and chiefly the Congress has not been able to strengthen the crusade against the Modi government. "I was surprised when some opposition leaders including Rahul Gandhi said the ongoing general election is a rigged match. It automatically gives signals that you have lost the battle,"said Pulok Sen in Firozabad.
There has been yet another issue vis-a-vis the functioning of the Samajwadi Party, which is contesting62 seats in Uttar Pradesh this year.SP chief Akhilesh Yadav changed its candidates from Meerut, Baghpat, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Badaun, Misrikh, Bijnor, Sultanpur, Muradabad, Kannauj and Shahjhanpur.
Some leaders were reportedly picked to contest the elections based on caste equations. However, not all the leaders were backed by the local SP leadership in the district units.
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Box 1:
Issues and Non-issues
** People in these seats think Muslim quota and a pie out of the OBC shareas alleged is a major election issue for May 7 third phase of voting.
** Muslims had serious complaints about law generally acting harshly againstthe community. Many under trials are behind bars since 2020 for the agitation against CAA.
** For Hindu voters, Ram temple is the foundation of people's faith. On this, they see both Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath having the image of strong Hindutva proponents. ** People also hail both PM Modi and CM Yogi for "guiding" the bureaucracy and police forces as agents of change and high-voltage actions. "Bulldozer baba" tag for Yogi will however indicate Muslims voting against BJP in substantial numbers.
Badaun seat
In 1989, Sharad Yadav of Janata Dal won the seat. BJP's Chinmayanand wonit in 1991. In 1996, it was Saleem Iqbal Shervani of Samajwadi Party
Shervani also won the seat in 1998, 1999 and 2004. In 2009, it passedon to Dharmendra Yadav of Samajwadi; and he retained it in 2014 as well.However, it 2019, Sanghmitra Maurya of BJP breached it. But this year, she has been replaced by the Lotus party.
Box 3 Hathras - A reserved seat, BJP keeps winning
It is a bit surprising that a high profile rape case is no longer discussed inthe parliamentary constituency of Hathras. The BJP is also confident of winning it again.It's sad but true. The ill-fated 'Bitya Kand' (episode involving your daughter) isnow probably more famous about Hathras. Otherwise, this region was known for production of Heeng (as afoetida), Holi and gulal powders.A 19-year-old Dalit young woman was allegedly gangraped by four upper-caste men in Hathras. She died 11 days later in Delhi’s Safdarjung Hospital in September 2020.The BJP has won Hathras seat consecutively since 1991. In 2009, the RLD won here as a BJP ally.The BSP finished runner-up in each poll between 1996 and 2014.
In 2019, BJP's Rajvir Singh Diler polled 684,299 votes making 59.49 percent and defeated
SP's Ram Ji Lal Suman. The victory margin was over two lakhs.
Box
Mainpuri:
1996 - Mulayam Singh Yadav Samajwadi Party
1998, 1999 - Balram Singh Yadav
2004 - Mulayam Singh Yadav. Later 2004 bypoll- Dharmendra Yadav
2009 - again Mulayam Singh Yadav. He wins again in 2014.
Tej Pratap Singh Yadav wins in the by-poll. In 2019, Mulayam Singh Yadavreturns and after his death, his Bahu, Dimple Yadav retains the family bastionin a by-poll.
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