It's easy to blame Narendra Modi, or most of the attack is justified? Why Muslim number of candidates dwindling even amongst Opposition candidates?
Forget BJP, - the public perception is it does not favour Muslim candidates or Muslim population in general. In Bihar, the custodian of 'MY' interest -- the RJD - - has fielded only two candidates of the 23 seats it is contesting this year as part of Mahagathbandhan alliance with Congress and other parties.
Another Muslim candidate for the RJD is M.A.A. Fatmi from Madhubani.
The more things change, the more they look the same.
In terms of BJP’s relations with religious groups, the Christians and the Muslims have always held the saffron party in suspicion.
Many would not even hesitate to join the campaign that India's ‘secular character’ is at stake under the BJP-led dispensation.
Even as Muslims are 'presumed' to have voted in favour of BJP nominees in 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh and also during the state assembly elections in 2017 and 2022 and Christians inched closer to the saffron party in the northeast, there were doubts nevertheless that if ‘communal forces’ are not halted, the largest democracy in the world could fall prey to ‘destruction’ of old social structures.
In political sense two powerful messages have been delivered - Art 370 abrogation and construction of Ram temple. The BJP spin, however, is that as far as the Temple goes -- the Hindus waited patiently and wanted the Supreme Court to resolve the dispute. Thus - Ram Lalla is back ! And on Article 370, this is more from 'nationalistic' standpoint and trying to workout a solution in Kashmir than to look at it from the communal prism.
But the third fear too is around. For 2024, BJP's promise to implement a uniform civil code (UCC) across the country -- it is feared will 'erode the rights of minorities' especially Muslims to freely practice their religion and culture.
Now in terms of parliamentary segments; many may not know that a place called Rampur in Uttar Pradesh had sent maximum number of Muslim lawmakers.
Rampur has elected Muslim MPs 15 out of 18 times since 1952.
Rampur’s last Muslim MP was veteran politician Mohammad Azam Khan — but he quit after more than 80 legal cases were brought against him, ranging from land grabbing to intimidating government officials. Azam Khan was elected to the Lok Sabha as Samajwadi MP in 2019 defeating Jaya Prada of the BJP.
In 2022 by-election, the saffron party wrested the seat when its nominee Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi polled 367,397 that is 51.96 percent votes defeating SP's Mohammad Asim Raza -- who had polled 3,25,205 votes accounting 46 percent.
Now in 2024, among the four candidates trying their luck BJP's Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi is the only Muslim.
Samajwadi Party has nominated Mohibullah Nadvi while Zeeshan Khan is the BSP candidate. The Minorities Democratic Party has fielded Arshad Warsi.
In Bihar again, the Janata Dal (United) which is contesting on 16 seats as part of NDA has fielded only one Muslim candidate - Mujahid Alam from Kishanganj in the Seemanchal area. The constituency has a Muslim population of 68%.
Alam is a former JD(U) MLA from Kochadhaman Assembly segment of the Kishanganj district. The Congress party, which is contesting on 9 Lok Sabha seats in the State, has put up two candidates from the Muslim community.
Senior party leader and former MP Tariq Anwar from Katihar and Mohammed Jawed from Kishanganj seat. Jawed is a sitting Congress MP from Kishanganj and he was the lone Opposition leader to win in Bihar in last 2019 Lok Sabha election.
The remaining 39 seats had gone to the NDA candidates. The BJP which is contesting on 17 seats has not fielded any Muslim face in the state.
The AIMIM candidate from Kishanganj Mohammed Akhtarul Iman has created buzz among voters and has made the contest tough for the sitting MP Mohammed Jawed. Iman is the AIMIM MLA from Amour Assembly constituency.
RJD's Shahnawaz Alam is MLA from Jokihat, in the Muslim dominant seat of Araria seat in northeast Bihar. He is the son of former Union Minister and veteran Muslim leader Mohammed Taslimuddin. Alam had won the last Assembly election on an All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) ticket but joined the RJD in 2022 along with three other AIMIM legislators.
Importantly, other arguments are being put forward vis-a-vis further marginalisation of Muslims. According to Asaduddin Owaisi, AIMIM chief and Hyderabad lawmaker, it has become very difficult for the Muslim candidates from any political party to win. He calls it a "wider shift”.
He is also angry because even 'secular parties' are avoiding fielding Muslim candidates because they fear they would not appeal to Hindu voters.
Predictably, the BJP denies “active discrimination” based on religion, pointing out that representation depends on candidates winning elections.
A handful of Muslim candidates the BJP fielded in the last two national elections all lost.
However, critics also accused the saffron party of showing disinterest in their campaign.
Are Muslims really being squeezed out of the democratic process ?
The complaint also is that in many places across India, strategies have been drawn to 'redraw constituencies' to minimise Muslim influence. In some places, the allegation is don’t allow Muslims to vote.
“And of course, you can always deny tickets to Muslims...," says a Muslim trader in East Delhi.
The other story is of course from West Bengal -- where Mamata Banerjee plays a 'giant appeaser'and this also complicates things in more ways than one.
Phase 1 ---- Referendum on Namo -- Four catch-points define Modi -- Hindutva agenda, Development and reform agenda, Hyper nationalism and 'Moditva or Modi Brand' ... and people seem to endorse another five year term for Moditva
Phase 1 of Lok Sabha polls sees 60% voting against 69.43% in 2019
The voters' turnout may be some indications at best. Good turnout has been reported from West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The BJP has particularly worked hard for making deeper penetration in Tamil Nadu -- that throws up 39 seats.
Four catch-points define Modi and his story of success -- the 'Moditva or Modi Brand', Hindutva agenda, Development and Reform agenda and Hyper nationalism
It's endorsement of Narendra Modi because he has himself made a pitch for a decisive and a strong government. Globally the situation is volatile and amid challenges on multiple fronts, hence the relevance of the Modi government is obvious.
India has had a taste of a strong government and a strong leadership especially during the stint of Indira Gandhi. But that was also the period of sycophancy at its peak. Modi should be careful on that line.
Absolute power may encourage sycophancy; -- but he will need loyalty and discipline to push his single-minded determined policy at times. People may still overlook PM Modi’s extremely dodgy record with religious minorities.
The “positive” reasons for endorsing Modi are also interesting. A large section of the middle class and neo middle class perceive Narendra Modi as a super-CEO.
He functions like a modern day CEO laying emphasis on the outcome and often allegedly putting the rules and normal norms in the backburner. There are several projects and welfare schemes, which Modi's ministers and others say, are possible only because there is Narendra Modi around.
There has been another message. People still do not buy the line that Modi has been personally corrupt.
The faceless Indian voters have proved themselves smarter that way than everyone dealing with them had thought.
The voter turnout was among the highest in Manipur (68.62%) and West Bengal (77.57%) when the polling concluded. These figures are crucial.
Of the 102 seats where voting was held on Friday, the NDA had won 41 seats in the 2019 elections while the Congress-led UPA bloc emerged victorious in 45 constituencies. This time, however, six of these seats have been redrawn as part of the delimitation exercise.
Trends suggest the BJP and NDA may pick up 55 seats from this round although their target would be little higher. What is of satisfaction for BJP is the high turnout of voters in Tamil Nadu and this could help the saffron party pick up 4-5 seats. Such an achievement will be dream come true for Modi and his team and electoral strategists like Amit Shah and the party's new found face in Tamil Nadu -- a former cop Annamalai.
A closer view suggests there is acceptance of Brand Modi and also the hyper nationalism.
Now to look at the abrogation of Article 370 and construction of the temple at Ayodhya -- this is also about narratives. First - a clear message to the Muslims and secondly a general message to the people of India -- that Modi and his party will not only make promises in the future; they will deliver too.
Of course there is a need to understand that a 'brute majority' in Parliament matters a lot. Most constitutional measures pushed by the Modi government especially abrogation of Art 370 was done with the help of 'numbers' or votes in both the Houses of Parliament. There was hardly any consensus on such a contentious issue.
India’s 2024 general elections could redirect the country’s politics. Either it would be a mega push towards more majoritarianism or bring back the good old politics of the post-1947 era -- more plural and more predictable.
Whatever happens, it will be historic. This is also an era wherein from the US to Australia and even to Russia, everyone is looking towards India and its leadership.
In 2019, Modi was given a second term to run the world’s largest democracy. Modi became the first prime minister since 1971 to return to power with an absolute majority. He was the third one to do so after the country’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru and his daughter Indira Gandhi.
If he wins 2024, he will be the first PM since Nehru to make a hat-trick to power.
A new battle for the idea of 'India' may begin and it may clash with the idea of Bharat. Or are both the same?
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