Its election time and hence the cow-belt state of Uttar Pradesh is amid all sorts of political debates and controversies. There are heated exchanges on the quality of democracy in India and in many quarters, the long shadow of despotism or tyranny is also hanging over.
Eight parliamentary segments in the Yogi Adityanath-ruled Uttar Pradesh is set for second round of polling on Friday, April 26th. These constituencies are Gautam Buddh Nagar, Bulandshahar, Amroha, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Baghpat, Aligarh and Mathura.
These constituencies form parts of western Uttar Pradesh and people from various caste and religious groups including a neo-middle class will decide the fate of the candidates and also PM Narendra Modi's in more ways than one.
While Muslims may fall isolated and the Jat-Muslim combine is not happening after RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary decided to join the BJP-led NDA.
Other formidable caste groups Gujjars, Kashyaps and Brahmins may also tilt the balance in a number of segments in this phase of polling.
Although Renuka Chaudhry of RLD says BJP-RLD combine will sweep polls; some local residents in Barot dismiss such preparedness by the BJP and say, "This time, people have made up their mind to defeat the BJP".
Voters in Gautam Buddh Nagar area -- not far from national capital Delhi - say people feel that the country facing what is perhaps the most testing time in its history. The Hindu assertion is a key factor and this automatically could mean marginalisation of Muslims. "Do we really deserve this ?," asks a 30-year-old property dealer Sunil Bhardwaj.
His issue is really basic and that is why it raises eyebrows.
"In today’s electoral politics we have only big talks and big allegations. Hindu ...Muslim etc.... but there is otherwise a basic absence of social leadership and in such a situation politics cannot be really a matter of confidence building".
Among others one spoke to in the Gautam Buddh Nagar constituency; some agree to Sunil's assessment and others do not.
A 22-year-old student and a female says, "In our area, general law and order is the public issue. Under Yogi it is comparably safe now but eve teasing is a north Indian disease we do not have such a thing in Maharashtra".
Of course, originally a Mumbai girl she says the society is divided and can appear communal but this is also mainly because some hooligans keep instilling fear and despair and this deepens divisions".
Her response to the challenge is: "I will definitely vote... but will not discuss politics or even Ram temple matters with a journalist".
However, she says there will be a triangular contest in Gautam Buddh Nagar between BJP, Opposition Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati.
The BJP has fielded sitting MP Dr Mahesh Sharma, a former Union Minister while
Mahendra Singh Nagar is the Samajwadi Party candidate and Rajendra Singh Solanki is the BSP nominee.
In 2009, BSP's Surendra Singh Nagar had won the seat defeating Mahesh Sharma of BJP. But in last two elections, that is - 2014 and 2019 - Sharma has able to retain it. Polls this year will be exciting yet again.
And it must be kept in mind that in 2019 BSP nominee Satveer Nagar was far behind Dr Mahesh Sharma who had polled over 8 lakh votes and the victory margin was over 3,30,000 votes.
Strong and straight contests are expected in two segments between the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party and the BJP in Aligarh and Bulandshahar.
In 2019, Aligarh saw three-cornered contest between BJP's Satish Kumar Gautam and BSP and the Congress candidate. BJP won it. He had won in 2014 also.
This year Satish Kumar Gautam will take on Samajwadi Party's Bijendra Singh.
Unemployment is among the most critical issues for citizens of Aligarh, who will vote in the second phase of the ongoing elections on April 26. Locals would also want the issue of price rise addressed by the elected government once polls are over.
Modi addressed a public meeting in Aligarh on Monday April 22.
Aligarh is famous for lock-making industry and political activists have crafted jokes based on 'locks' saying the rival parties will be forced to shut their shops and put an 'Aligarh ka tala' at the door after the poll results come in.
Even Modi used the ‘lock’ rhetoric and said: “Last time when I visited Aligarh to campaign, I had requested you all to be careful about family based parties and their minority appeasement politics. You all have locked their shops so well and both the princes (Shehzades – in reference to Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav) till today could not find the lost key”.
The famous Aligarh Muslim University makes it a critical hub of education especially for minorities and there is a general complaint that the civic amenities are neglected and water-logging is normal during rains.
This is also the place where BJP stalwart Kalyan Singh was born and importantly
yet again, former Governor of Jammu and Kashmir Satya Pal Malik had won the seat
on Janata Dal ticket in 1989.
BJP's sitting MP Bhola Singh is pitted against Congress party's Shivram Valmiki from Bulandshahr. In 2009 Kamlesh Balmiki of Samajwadi Party had won the seat but in last two polls, it preferred Bhola Singh of BJP. In 2004, Kalyan SIngh had won the seat as the BJP nominee. The caste factors matter but this seat has often embraced Hindutva.
Congress though is quite weak in its onetime bastion this year is expected to put up a spirited fight in Mathura and Ghaziabad. The ruling saffron party is dependent on stardom of actress-turned-lawmaker Hema Malini. She won the seat in 2014 and also five years back in 2019. Her rival this time is Mukesh Dhangar of the Congress. The BSP also has nominated Suresh Singh -- who is seen more as a vote-cutter candidate.
Hema Malini had defeated RLD's Jayant Chaudhary in 2014. Though a Tamil lady,
Hema Malini strikes good rapport with Jat voters due to her marriage with film star
Dharmendra. Hema's screen role as 'Mirabai' also comes in handy as voters often
greet her with salutation 'Jai Radhe, Radhe'.
In 2019, Hema Malini had polled 6,71,293 votes making it a staggeringly high
60.87 percent. This was also an improvement of 7.58 vote share she had polled in
2014 against Jayant. The RLD is now a NDA constituent and Jayant's grandfather Chaudhary Charan Singh was awarded Bharat Ratna this year at the personal intervention of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Another Jat stronghold Baghpat is also going for voting on April 26.
The Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal has fielded senior leader Rajkumar
Sangwan. BJP's Satya Pal Singh, a former Mumbai police commissioner, had won the seat in 2014 and 2019.
RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary lost the seat five years ago by a margin of 20,000 votes.
In Baghpat, a well know Jat heartland, social worker, I. Mofidul says the RLD nominee will make it easily as nearly two lakh Jats would back him but added that minority votes will go the other side.
Amroha and Meerut are two other Lok Sabha seats going to the polls on April 26.
BSP's vocal MP Danish Ali had won the seat in 2019. Ali made news last year when BJP MP Ramesh Bidhuri flayed him targeting his religion on the floor of Lok Sabha. Danish Ali quit BSP later and joined the Congress party.
In this year's contest, Kunwar Danish Ali of Congress is pitted against
BJP's Kanwar Singh Tanwar while Mayawati-led BSP has nominated a Muslim
Mujahid Hussain. This has created some political ripples and the Congress workers
say the BSP supremo is only trying to harm the electoral prospects of Danish Ali.
In Meerut, the BJP is banking on Ram factor in more ways than one.
The Lotus party has fielded Arun Govil, the noted actor who played the role of
Ram in the Doordarshan blockbuster serial of the 1980s.
In 2019, Haji Yaqoob Qureshi of BSP had given a stiff fight and the victory margin
in favour of Agarwal was a modest 4729 votes. This is one reason the saffron party has replaced its nominee. The BJP thinks fielding Arun Govil this year makes a lot of sense because only a few months back the grand Ram temple was inaugurated at Ayodhya. Govil had attended the Jan 22, 2024 mega global event which was also addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Arun Govil is locked in a three-cornered contest with BSP fielding Devvrat Kumar Tyagi while Samajwadi Party's nominee is Ms Sunita Verma.
Elected Meerut mayor on a BSP ticket in 2017, Sunita Verma was expelled from the party in November 2019. She joined the SP in 2021. Ms Sunita Verma hails from the SC Jatav community.
BSP's candidate Tyagi is from upper caste and this move could harm BJP prospects.
In 2014, actress Nagma was the Congress nominee. The BSP had polled second.
While Rajendra Agarwal had won for the second term by a big margin of 2,32,326 votes, Shahid Akhlaq of the BSP had finished second. Shahid Manzoor of the Samajwadi Party finished third. Notably, Ms Nagma of Congress had polled a modest 42,911 making it only 3.85 percent of vote share.
Ghaziabad also falling under the national capital region is expected to throw up an exciting battle. The BJP has rested former army chief and two-time lawmaker Gen V K Singh (Retd) and replaced him by Atul Garg.
The Congress nominee is Dolly Sharma while BSP had nominated Nand Kishor Pundir.
There are also other contestants from signboard parties Rashtra Nirman Party (Anand Kumar) and Rashtriya Jan Karmath Party (Ansul Gupta).
“The reservation for Jats was scrapped in 2014. We are also not in favour of the Centre’s Agnipath scheme for recruitment to the armed forces," said Virender Singh Dhaka, president of ‘Jaat Samaj, Ghaziabad.
Locals in Ghaziabad also raise controversial issues like Electoral Bonds and alleged "inhuman treatment" meted out to women wrestlers during a protest at Jantar Mantar in Delhi.
Jats and other farming communities will decide the fate of candidates in segments
such as Mathura, Ghaziabad and Baghpat.
In terms of the 'most discussed issue' for the second round of polling on Friday in Uttar Pradesh and also elsewhere is the high-voltage debate on "redistribution of wealth" as allegedly planned by the Congress.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi sparked controversy on Sunday (April 21)
after he said that if the Congress party were to come to power, it would redistribute wealth among those ‘with more children’. This may be like the ‘Maut Ka Saudagar’ and ‘Chaewalla’ comments which Modi had used successfully in the past
The PM also cited former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's disputed remarks of 2006 that Muslims had the first claim on the country's resources.
"This urban-Naxal mindset, my mothers and sisters, they will not even leave your 'Mangalsutra'. Modi said at a poll a rally in Rajasthan's Banswara.
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** Locals say Jat reservation is an issue. They also raise controversial issues like Electoral Bonds and alleged "inhuman treatment" meted out to women wrestlers during a protest in Delhi.
*** If one looks at the list of elected MPs since 1998 from Amroha, one striking part is no one has been repeated.
In 1998 it was BJP's Chetan Chauhan and BSP nominee Rashid Alvi wrested the seat in 1999 despite Kargil. Harish Nagpal, an Independent, won the seat in 2004 but in 2009 the seat went to Devendra Nagpal of RLD. In 2014 Kanwar Singh Tanwar of BJP could pick it and Danish Ali (BSP) won the seat in 2019.
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