Writers, journalists, strategic experts and students of insurgency-military history fall in one category. They maybe either fools or they maybe good soothsayers.
Can they really read the signs of Future ... ? If so ... perhaps they can guide the direction of History.
In broad sense, they may have to predict the Future and also describe the Present.
The second Fundamental task will be to bear witness to everything that's happening around.
The visit of a particular Naga underground militant - whose sole life even from the deathbed (virtually) has been to work against the nation should not be allowed to be glorified beyond proportion. A section of media and especially provided with Double-E -- energy and encouragement -- by vested interests and a particular political school of thought will do that. Rather they will overdo that.
But strategic thinkers are cautioning New Delhi not to fall into any 'false mirage' that this exercise will help achieve the much awaited and much deserving Solution to the Naga problem at the earliest.
Desperation should not blind the New Delhi mandarins.
On the contrary chances are that things could be further complicated.
In 2023 Nagas decided to make Meiteis their brothers. It was strategic brotherhood. The visit of the so-called 'leader' has been planned coinciding with a so called merger process that sought to glorify Naga regionalism.
The ideology of regionalism is essentially in tune with the federal spirit of Indian polity and constitution. There is nothing wrong in that. But a deliberate twist will be given to make it appear anti-BJP, anti-ban on beef eating and anti-Hindutva.
Essentially, India-bashing sells.
The real time 'political opportunists' who meekly and shyly would say Jai Hind -- would not mind making optimum use of the so-called Naga regionalism to push their own political career.
New Delhi's mandarins might have already walked into a trap. Things are not late nevertheless.
This October (2025) - maybe the last push for spoiling things further for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the north east. And the protagonists are two aging individuals. One more aged than the other .... and almost at the last stage of life and another -- realising that near saturation point has been achieved politically has decided to work on a deceptive game.
The BJP high command and even Nagpur could be too indifferent to things happening. But it is the brotherhood of two individuals that will 'benefit' in the entire bargain.
The merger and the visit need not be seen from different prisms. More so because of the time line - say ex military officials who served in the region.
The Zeliangrong United Front has already tried to show mirror to the Govt of India that some of these exercises are only aimed to "rekindle the lost spirit of Naga Nationalism".
Someone is trying to save his face and ensure that in future people should continue to face the emotional tug of war between 'independence' and the reality of being part of a state of a progressive Bharat.
The indiscriminate killings of individuals and family members with and without reason for years were virtual acts of treason. Only a 'democratic' country like India doing hobnobbing at times with soft Hindutva - with lopsided standards of judging wrongs and rights - will glorify such protagonists.
Someone has rightly remarked that -- “the underground leaders who had been handling the Naga political issue are entrapped in the web of their own follies.”
Furthermore, he said that the “shipwreck of the Naga political movement is now on the verge of sinking in the blue sea,” and the dire need of the hour is to salvage the sinking ship of the Naga political voyage. (S C Jamir as quoted in Kohima-based newspaper 'Eastern Mirror' Feb 8th - 2025 )
The Govt of India should not take it very lightly that an impression has gone that both the NSCN-IM and New Delhi apparatus in conjunction with the stakeholders at Kohima are not sincere for any solution or signing of any final peace pact. Today -- three or two sides are being blamed and that too in veiled tone.
Tomorrow, only New Delhi and more particularly only the Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be blamed.
Worse, there is also a theory in circulation that Indian army do not an early Solution to some of these problems in the north east. Because continuation of the security challenges is linked to their being 'relevant' in this region.
An episode like Oting could happen here and there and this argument will get the necessary oxygen from the propagandists and anti-India and anti-Modi forces.
It solely goes to the credit of Assam Rifles, the then GoC Nagaland Lt Gen Vikas Lakhera and his team in Mon-Oting region that necessary corrective measures were taken to give a healing touch.
The lopsided operation could not be justified but the NDPP-BJP government had done everything during the heat of the moment and later to complicate things further even in the judicial process.
Thanks to local people in Oting -- who have decided to march ahead forgetting the darkest episode in the history of the village.
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placard at the venue of Hornbill festival, Dec 2021 - which was shut as protest to Oting |
For long, the northeastern state of Nagaland has been 'hoping against hope' that a miracle may happen and the Prime Minister would act with determination (as he is known) to ink the Naga peace talks. The parleys stand stalled on lame excuses or have been derailed to the extent that no one is serious enough to bring it back on track.
The process of Dialogues and Common Draft have been hijacked by players who in the entire decade of 1990s spent days and weeks misguiding youngsters.
Unfortunately, even key officials with intelligence agencies generally obliged stakeholders who were hospitable in their hospitality. Genuine reports perhaps never reached even HMO or PMO right from the Manmohan Singh days.
In Oct 2025; the stalemate has made the people of Nagaland state appear helpless and frustrated. None liked it. But the state was silent while the grand Cock party unfolded.
The fact of the matter is people have almost given up.
As of now there is hardly any meeting point between NSCN-IM and the Govt of India. The militant organisation that came with so much fanfare for initiating peace process in 1997 during the stint of I K Gujral as PM, now says they want a separate flag and a separate Naga constitution.
For obvious reasons the demands have been rejected by the centre more than once.
"Woh baat nahi karna (Let us not talk about these demands)", Home Minister Amit Shah had reportedly told a delegation of Nagaland CM Neiphiu Rio and state legislators and ministers in September 2022.
However, even as late as August 14, 2023, NSCN-IM general secretary and influential leader Thuingalang Muivah and his team have said that the twin demands stand.
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| Longwa village near Myanmar border |
Some discussions - formal and informal - took place between government's emissary A K Mishra and NSCN-IM leaders including Muivah even after Aug 14, 2023; but can someone claim whether there has been any forward movement.
Mishra often went out of the ways of breaking official protocol. But such gestures were rewarded well in 2024 when a demand was made that he should be replaced.
A conglomeration called NNPG has been pushed to the margins with or without their knowledge. They also have to get their act together. Some one from outside will not provide anything to anyone on a platter.
Of course, many Nagas realise and they have started acting on that line. Some middle-aged Naga parents no longer stop their children deciding careers that would ultimately make them shift base to cities such as Bengaluru, Pune or the national capital region and even overseas.
Nagas are now realising that they also belong to the 21st century and hence ought to start thinking and working as any other people in the present world in tune with the contemporary civilisation. Naga women and young girls have taken the lead and joining multiple varieties of profession. A large number of Naga students and youngsters settling in Delhi or Pune regions are also from Ukhrul in Manipur.
Likes of S C Jamir have counselled the Naga people in the past to let bygones be bygones and start a new chapter of unity through reconciliation and fashion a new Nagaland where peace and a feeling of oneness would be ushered in.
To be 'Powerful' - according to some schools of wisdom - mean being able to cause suffering. Nagas need to change that perception with or without its new found love for regionalism.
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GOI considers NSCN (IM) as the main contender for any negotiations for NAGA Peace Accord though a very strong contender under the Name Naga National Political Group has emerged and two frame work agreements have been signed with them also.
ReplyDeleteMuivah will get a rousing welcome being arranged by the militants of his group which will strengthen his standing in the eyes of the GOI. Because of age his mental faculties have weakened and he has lost rationality. Now the shorts are being fired by the second string leadership led by Atem and Raising.
I am unable to comprehend how a Naga leader from outside the jurisdiction of Nagaland can decide the fate of Nagas. Greater Nagaland has been rejected by the neighbouring states and it's feasibility is unimaginable. Any agreement with one group will lead to hostility by the other group and both will never agree to a joint agreement. A catch 22 situation which requires astute political acumen to resolve. -- A Retd army officer who served in Nagaland
Some bold observations. Few years back nobody would hav said these. But there is need to keep an eye on the football.... and the goal post. No bother who has jersy 10 or not. - Avinash Thakur - Greater Noida
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