Challenges are mounting by the day.
In the north east of India, the saffron penetration is weakening and regional players are playing up their cards pretty well and pretty fast.
Some of it due to desperation.
Manipur has been hit by the possibility of becoming a state where nothing was going right.
Only a matured handling of the situation by the BJP high command can rescue it from a free fall.
Regionalism - the pride of north east politics despite Congress hegemony for decades - is now feeling more threatened by the onslaught of the Lotus brigade.
"When Congress has failed and will continue to fail to counter BJP with one issue a poll season... once the EVM and then Vote chori -- it is the regional parties who have to shield the distinct political identity of the north east ... of Nagas or Manipuris and of tribesmen such as Garos and Khasis of Meghalaya," says a senior politician.
This has made politics of Manipur murkier. Some of the games out in the play is not BJP's comprehension. The usual roadmaps are not working well so far.
None other than the BJP leaders themselves are giving an impression that the Governor Ajay Bhalla's 10 months-stint as Governor and as head of the President's Rule administration since February 2025 has not able to do much.
The saffron party leaders and especially the MLAs and former ministers and others insisting for installation of a so-called popular regime even before a few basic steps have been taken is a double-edged sword. It is greatly self-defeating as it somehow expresses "No Confidence" in Governor Bhalla himself.
Speaking to reporters at Imphal airport upon his return from Delhi, BJP leader Kh Ibomcha said, "We went to apprise the central leadership about the current political situation in Manipur. The central leaders assured that President's Rule will not be further extended".
These kinds of statements are not from the concerned MLA Ibomcha himself. It is coming on behalf of someone more powerful and at least from his team.
The fact of the matter is the 'big team' flown to Delhi by a powerful leader did not yield expected results. Meaning - there was no 'real' high level meeting. One or two party functionaries met and they do keep meeting and at times also give 'faulty impressions'.
Now coming to "Mission Manipur" as is being talked about - perhaps early installation of a new/old regime without Kukis on board will not give the right political message.
But Governor Bhalla or even the officials both from the state and the centre apparently could not enlist the kinds of services from 'local resources' some quarters were expecting.
First, someone has to ensure that the new Chief Minister will be able to deliver or perform beyond routine expectations.
The Team Modi may have to ensure that if it can do business in Manipur keeping former Chief Minister N Biren Singh out of the corridors of power. And an issue whether Kuki MLAs will be part of this arrangement will have to be examined closely.
The official line from the Kuki organisations so far has been no legislator from the community will be part of any new regime. They are asking for a new administrative unit. The demand on the face value seems very simple and perhaps also agreeable on face value as against the tough situations the state has landed since May 2023.
But any announcement to disintegrate Manipur at this juncture is simple not advisable. By calling each citizen of Manipur ... a 'gem' that is 'Mani'; the Prime Minister has also give a clear message.
The Nagas of Manipur are playing a clever game. They will not mind 'benefits' to share power with Meiteis. But they will not mind even an autonomous council or so on. The Meiteis have to do all kinds of adjustments notwithstanding that in the 60 -member assembly they have 40 MLAs.
As of now the political angles vis-a-vis the Congress and the BJP are not coming on the way. A section of Congress also wants installation of a popular dispensation because the bureaucrats have allegedly become completely inaccessible.
Even Congress MLAs feel that institutions like gram panchayats and zilla parishads should be 'revived' as administrators appointed once during the Biren Singh ministry are simply living in ivory towers.
The non-distribution of cash on ground zero have made BJP's hyped 'Go to Hills' and 'Go to Villages' just meaningless. NREGA or any other scheme is practically not functioning well - is one complain coming from the rice fields in the backyards of Imphal and Churachandpur.
The shortage of money in people's pockets now have chances of worsening things further.
This is one reason the political class is feeling the pressure. The assembly elections in Manipur are due by March 2027. Technically, the BJP leaders in Delhi have nearly 14 months only to put things in order so that it can face the electorate of Manipur yet again.
The task ahead is herculean and everyone seems clueless. One available clue is early dissolution of the state assembly say by April-May 2026 when elections will be due in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
But these may be far-fetched impression some people are working on. However, such possibilities need not be ruled out completely. This will mean ensure elections under President's Rule and with the Congress caught unprepared; the voters may flock to the BJP as TINA - There is No Alternative factor.
The 'opening' of Kangpokpi is another likely thing which will work well.
This is referring to the opening of roads after a period of protest-related shutdowns, which would help normalize daily life and the movement of goods.
In a broader sense for the trouble-torn state; a complete resolution of the current conflict and the lifting of security measures would help restore stability.
Prime Minister Modi can also work out something new.
He can assign a New Delhi-based politician - preferably a union minister - as a pointman to initiate negotiations with Kukis and Meiteis.
The sitting MLAs are possibly not cooperating with Governor's official and unofficial emissaries and any other negotiating representatives of the BJP high command.
This will be one 'out of box' formula.
Another minor gesture and one way of 'out of box' approach may be to assure Kuki legislators preferably again - a woman that she may be given a 'higher responsibility'. A firm message that as of now -- at least for next few years -- integrity of Manipur will not be disturbed will give a message and mount pressure on Kukis that they should not 'stay away' from the development offensive of the Modi government.
And if MLAs are to be involved; it is always better to deal through an effective and a senior union minister.
Moreover, a central minister or Modi's political emissary may set the ball rolling to enlist the services of organisations such as the Indigenous Tribal Leaders' Forum (ITLF).
This forum was formed in 2022 and brought together tribal bodies including the influential Kuki Inpi to advocate for the rights of the Kuki-Zo community. Similarly, the Meitei civil society groups such as the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI) may be also approached.
ends
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