BJP strategists are aware of problem areas the party has landed in Assam ::: "If we are out of Assam, entire tribal and Christian-dominated NE will go out of our grip"

Four-time BJP MP from Nagaon in Assam Rajen Gohain has resigned along with 17 others.

Making things worse, Gohain says: "The government, which promised that after May 16, 2014, there would not be a single Bangladeshi in Assam, is continuously bringing in Bangladeshis through new tactics". 

This is a crucial development in a state that goes to the polls early next year. More significance is Gohain's charges that the Lotus party has failed to fulfil promises made to the people of the state. 

Rajen Gohain 

Gohain represented the Nagaon parliamentary constituency for four terms from 1999 to 2019 and had served as the Union minister of state for railways from 2016 to 2019. He also charged the party's state leadership with "encouraging communal politics and dividing the centuries-old Assamese society".

This episode is not just a mere setback for the party which has come up the ladder in Assam through years of hard work; but it is a virtual no trust in chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and his "Congress style of functioning".

"We are not the BJP we thought and were working hard .... This is an era of AI and being artificial matters more perhaps. We have become a clone of the Congress party," remarked one BJP booth level worker Sajal Das in Hojai.

The BJP strategists for Assam also are aware of the problem areas the party has landed in the key north eastern state. The general refrain borders around the line that -- 

"If we are out of Assam, entire tribal and Christian-dominated NE will go out of our grip".  

One glimpse of party's growing "unpopularity" was felt in the recently held local polls in the Bodo areas. The feedback and post-poll analysis is that people from all sections - Hindus, Muslims and native tribals and also including Bengali Hindus and Bihari voters did not vote for the saffron outfit in the Bodo Territorial Council polls. 

Most of it is due to the alleged failure in 'basic governance' under Himanta Biswa Sarma. The ground zero assessment from other political pockets of Assam including Bengali-stronghold Cachar valley is that the state government has failed to deliver especially since 2021 when Himanta replaced Sarbananda Sonowal.  

In short, the Bodo local polls has been a proof that anti-BJP and anti-double engine narratives have overwhelming acceptance. 

In Silchar of Cachar valley, stage was set for municipal polls by November 2025. But after the humbling defeat in BTC; the stakeholders have developed cold feet and now it is likely to be deferred to post 2026 assembly elections.  

The Silchar Municipal Council elections would have been the business hub's first civic poll in a decade. The last election to the erstwhile Silchar Municipal Board (SMB) was held in Feb 2015. 

Since then, the city has been under an administrator but the BJP now shying to face people shows things are generally tougher for the Lotus outfit in weeks and months to come. 

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As it is Himanta is now facing stiff and rather multiple challenges in the entire state. 

Firstly, after 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress appeared on a revival journey. 

Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi's Ahom-pride politics as a son of the soil found acceptability. The message spread into other parts of Assam. Moreover, Himanta has antagnosed Muslims so much that today they are determined to defeat BJP.

Thus the Muslims will take part in strategic polling and will even desert AIUDF and vote for the Congress.

As it is Himanta Sarma is a Brahmin from lower or western Assam. In Upper Assam, the BJP did well in two consecutive elections in 2016 and 2021 because of Sonowal factor.  But this time, the BJP is on backfoot in 25 seats from the word go.

Some words and phrases haunt back; that's a peculiarity of politics. 

In 2021 when Himanta was elected leader of the legislative wing to take charge of the state; he spoke highly about Sarbananda Sonowal.

“Sonowal practiced politics of values. Sonowal is a leader with a foresight, someone who had the vision of uniting the people of ‘Barak-Brahmaputra-plains-hills’ while ensuring no section of the society was left behind. He was our leader and will continue to guide us,” Sarma was quoted as saying. 

All eyes are on PM Narendra Modi's cabinet reshuffle once heat and dust of Bihar polls are settled.

Will the same Sonowal now replace Himanta only to pull the saffron party out of a major crisis ?

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