Manipur Power Politics :::: Timing of Biren Singh and his MLAs camping in Delhi is wrong ::: BJP leadership is smart enough to learn from Congress mistakes !!

What's the recipe for a successful career ? 

Often you take a well known story and there is no suspense. 

Yet when you tell it; the readers and listeners may be in a different mind-space and may presume you have created a masterpiece. This happened with two mythology based TV serials in India - Mahabharat and Ramayan. 

In politics and also in life;  truth is most often stranger than fiction. The beating of a butterfly wings can unleash a Tsunami. At times there is not even a proper dream to become an author just because one may have nothing to write about -- yet the glories may come. 

Talking about glories and politics - the BJP's journey in north east India has been an interesting one. It did not imagine even around 2015-16 abut such successes. 

But the saffron party has penetrated deep and could capture power in states such as Manipur.

And the journey was going pretty well too until it hit the roadblocks in 2023. At present Manipur is under President's Rule. As expected, the legislators of the suspended assembly are not quite happy about it. Over 20 of them recently landed in Delhi under the leadership of former Chief Minister N Biren Singh.  

They want to 'return' to the days of popular government. But they easily seemed to have forgotten that the President's Rule was imposed only after the regime had turned much 'unpopular'. And after the politics of changing loyalties started and Biren Singh voluntarily quit.

The Congress with modest single digit strength is not in a position to do anything. Hence, the grand old party could not take advantage. 

N Biren Singh wants to come back as the chief minister. But a smart political operative like him is unable to appreciate a simple thing that the masters in Delhi do not have any good excuse to oblige him.  

Biren Singh's ouster in Feb 2025 looked imminent as the ethnic violence that started on May 3, 2023, did not quite end and tension still prevailed at an unexpected scale. Kukis cannot come to the Imphal-belt where Meiteis dominate and Hindu Manipuris (Meiteis) cannot go to Churachandpur’s hilly region at all.

The most important thing expected of a Chief Minister in office is that he has strategies and vision for how to fix some of the entrenched problems of his state. Here Biren Singh failed.

But Biren Singh's removal from the position of authority in Imphal left  a big political vacuum. 

As state’s Chief Minister and blessed with high command's blessings Biren Singh had tried to emerge as a champion of the Meitei-cause. But his plans have boomeranged. After Congress veteran Okram Ibobi Singh was voted out of office in 2017, many thought Biren will inherit the legacy and emerge as a champion of the Meitei cause.

For some time, it appeared Biren was able to do so. Under Biren Singh, the BJP with support from smaller and regional parties could return to power in 2022. 

    

Now, the best option for Biren as of October 2025 would be to show patience and cooperate with all three - Governor Ajay Bhalla, state authorities including Assam Rifles and police and also the BJP high command so that there is improved situation on ground. 

But Patience in politics is not only linked to an individual's characteristics. He or she may be under pressure on multiple scores. 

These days people are talking about Manipur’s connectivity story. This is being "redefined" with all weather concrete roads spanning 547.281 km across four packages worth over Rs 2883.05 crore. The bitter fact of political life is such projects coming and going under President's Rule means the Neta class is left helpless onlookers.

Leaders with the long habit of overlordship cannot bear to remain an onlooker. Ask leaders in Nagaland - what about 'Naga Solution' --- they turn back in the room and see whether their chairs are in place or not !!

The Babus in Manipur as of now may be laughing in the wings. One can only sympathise with the politicians as whenever elections are held by 2027 or before or after .... they cannot fight it out purely on the basis of political ideologies.

Biren Singh : Second from left with three other CMs of NE India 

The BJP poll strategists appreciate this fact but as of now they too can only sympathise. 

The policy makers in the Lotus party and the election strategists also appreciate that nothing 'solid' has happened in Manipur since the imposition of President's Rule in Feb 2025 that would warrant to announce return of a popular regime.

Things are more critical than being assumed.

If any policy maker asks friends and bloggers in Delhi on how things should progress in Manipur - one easy refrain will be -- 'Please work harder to improve relations and social bonds between Kukis and Meiteis'.

Secondly, the so-called scheme of "installing" a new/old popular dispensation in Imphal cannot leave out Kukis. We are not telling any rocket science here. 

Any new dispensation or so-called popular government without participation of Kuki MLAs will only reinforce the ethnic divide.  

The Congress party and its eco system will exploit such a situation to carry out anti-BJP campaign in other states as well. In fact, to suggest that Amit Shah is busy with the Bhar elections is not entirely falsehood.

That way the timing of Biren Singh and his MLAs camping in Delhi is wrong. Polls are also due in Assam and West Bengal and in these two states also lot of noises may be made about the situations in Manipur. Shah and the BJP's election team need to be cautious about all these.

The BJP leadership is smart enough to learn from Congress mistakes. One BJP insider said recently that -- 

"Having fallen on evil hands and evil days in the eighties if not earlier the downhill slide of the Congress party was visible much before 2014 ..... we do not want to walk that path".

The statement is loaded and very practical.

 

That also means ex-Congress leaders and now in the BJP -- means the likes of Himanta Biswa Sarma and N Biren Singh - will have to learn some of the hard lessons of the new party too.  

It's not only being a vocal pro-Hindutva proponent. In Assam; overdoing certain anti-Muslim policies and even anti-healing Bills have boomeranged. In Manipur, the RSS and the BJP were slammed for anti-Christian (anti-Kuki) violence sometimes for no reason or rhyme.

DGAR Lt Gen Vikas Lakhera with Home Minister Shah

Shah has his priorities drawn out.

Notwithstanding Bihar polls and other engagements, the Home Minister knows the importance of a force like Assam Rifles in the north east.

Hence, on Oct 9th, Lt Gen Vikas Lakhera, D G, Assam Rifles, called on him and had a "meaningful interaction" on ongoing initiatives aimed at enhancing operational effectiveness, inter-agency coordination and welfare measures within the force.

Left to the security forces and also the police in Manipur; less political interference is something they would always prefer. 

Recent ambush on Assam Rifles flood relief workers has left people hurt and angry. 

Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla being an ex Home Secretary makes it clear that there is a very strong element of Amit Shah-stamp in things happening and not happening in the region. 

ends