Mamata Banerjee has lost the sense of 'invincibility' she had. And the public knows this.
There is a master stroke in fielding Suvendu Adhikari from Bhawanipore. It's in the heart of the city and these assembly segments are Didi-bastions.
Suvendu's candidature in the heart of Kolkata is like Narendra Modi contesting Varanasi in 2014. This gives a clear and a strong message to the voters, including the 'anti-right wing bhadralok' -- that they now have a good option to Trinamool.
Narendra Modi's candidature in 2014 had given BJP -- as many as 71 seats on its own and two more for its alliance partner.
Kolkata has 16 assembly seats those swept by TMC in 2021 and now Suvendu contesting polls from Bhawanipore means the -- battle has been taken to the enemy court.
The Baranagar violence where Sajal Ghosh of BJP is taking on an actres-turned-leader of Mamata's outfit is actually not without good reasons.
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No Mamata No Congress -- gained currency in the 1990s. Today .... there are numerous slogans against her because 'perceptions' have changed a lot on ground.
In 1999, she joined the BJP-led NDA Govt but bargained hard with Atal Bihari Vajpayee to get the Railway Ministry. In 1998, Vajpayee had given that post to Nitish Kumar.
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Is it a mere battle of 'Ma, Maati and Musalman' ? Or even worse;
-- Mamata and Musalman and Musalman == Mamata ??
In West Bengal, the BJP believes the contest transcends routine electoral arithmetic.
For the saffron party, it is a battle to “protect civilisational values". Over the last decade, the BJP has steadily worked to make its ideological triad—Hindu-Hindi-Hindustan—socially acceptable across large swathes of India.
The success in municipal politics in Mumbai is cited internally as proof that slogans once dismissed as regional—like “Jai Shri Ram”—now carry national resonance.
Mamata has "over exposed" herself. She also opposed everything and claimed things much bigger than her shoes (read bathroom slippers) allowed.
She said she will not allow CAA - it's a reality today. She said SIR will not be enforced; she failed on multiple fronts.
In other words; the histrionics have limitations.
She has been opposing SIR ever since it was started in Bihar. Means - she knew her problem area pretty well. Much to BJP's satisfaction - she says most deleted names are from Malda and Murshidabad and mostly Muslims.
It's like a 'big Self Goal' and an admission of guilt. The BJP has been saying the same.
On transfer of cops and civil servants; the manner the TMC has pressed the panic button; it seems - she is again admitting -- her victories depended on officials and babudom of her choice.
Another self goal.
Mamata showed desperation about SIR, even personally appeared before the Supreme Court. Her critics say -- had she worked 50 per cent of this for industrialisation in the last five to seven years; Bengal's fate and entire political dynamics would have been different.
That means -- Mamata aapa is standing with Muslims; and that too Muslims who are fake voters !!
She could not cut any ice with the Supreme Court?
The chief wishes of TMC on SIR have not been met.
The final appeal by voters whose names have been left out including about 47,000 in Bhawanipore will now be decided by judicial officers.
Political accusations will not stick. Another self goal ???
Two big comparisons --- 2011 - when Leftists were ousted in Kolkata bastion. And 2004 - when BJP had lost the polls due to over confidence. People say both these cases/situations fit in for Mamata Banerjee.
In Bhawanipore - she may face the fate of Buddhadeb Bhattacharya of 2011.
Likes of Pramod Mahajan exuded long before votes were cast in 2004. The fate is well known. A nervous TMC now says -- they will win over 250 seats. Wait for May 4th, 2026.
In more ways than one -- the momentum is now with the BJP, not with the Trinamool.
In 2024 Lok Sabha polls - the BJP's vote share was 39.08% as against 46.16% of TMC.
In 2021 assembly elections -- TMC share was 43.69% and BJP 40.64%
Margin in number of seats were huge.
Now, the Matrize-IANS poll gave 41-43 percent vote share to the BJP and 43-45 for Trinamool.
Others getting 13-15 percent.
A negative swing of only 2-3 percent for TMC or positive swing of about 3 percent for the BJP from the Left and Congress or even the Trinamool would leave a disastrous impact.
Today, a few obvious questions those are not being raised are --
** How much 'reverse polarisation among Hindus' will happen in favour of BJP ?
*** How much Hindu votes can Mamata retain ?
TMC votes (especially in terms of percentage) is perhaps overstated due to the 'fear factor'.
Many journalists and surveyers now report from West Bengal is that -- people are not being frank in giving their views.
Even voters know which papers/TV channels are with the TMC or which may be with the BJP -- like Republic. The public views are tailor-made.
There is another angle. To presume; Muslim turnout will be maximum is also erroneous. Moreover; a substantial Muslim voters are not happy with Mamata Banerjee. They may even vote for the communists or the Congress knowing pretty well rendering Zero sum games for CPI-M in 2021 and also 2024 was also "unfair".
If 43-45 percent of the "70 percent Hindu" vote is polarised; the Lotus party can sail home.
Changing Dynamics :
There are many Muslims who would support the BJP in 2026.
Mamata's speech at Eid-day meeting has presented Muslims in 'poor light'.
Many Muslims say they cannot support BJP publicly because they are afraid of other Muslims and TMC goons who could opt for violence.
A BJP victory in West Bengal would be a seismic political event. It could hand Amit Shah the political capital to become Deputy Prime Minister.
For Team Modi, winning West Bengal before 2027 assembly elections in UP and 2029 Lok Sabha would reshape the political arithmetic in ways no other state victory could.
ends
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