Both Congress and BJP faltered in their respective electoral strategies in Kerala.
In an interesting turn of events perhaps Marxist Chief Minister Pinarayi Vjayan is set to make hat trick if things go according to plans.
It will be a politically big episode for a state like Kerala. The southern state has a pattern of changing governments between LDF and UDF every five years. But in 2021, the LDF returned to power surprising poll-pundits and political detractors.
In 2026; it's hence question of Life and Death for Congress and its associate parties such as the Indian Union of Muslim League (IUML).
Have the Leftists given weak candidates in select pockets which BJP and NDA hope to win ?
A major political development in Kerala has been the inclusion of the Twenty20 party, founded by Sabu M. Jacob of the Kitex Group, into the NDA.
This move will see the test of time whether a corporate-style polity makes inroads in the God's own country. In fact, two other constituents of NDA are also headed by corporate players.
Rajeev Chandrashekhar, Kerala unit BJP chief, is an entrepreneur and owner of popular Asianet News Online company.
The third party in the NDA is the the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS).
Vellappally Natesan, the patron of BDJS and leader of the Ezhava community organization SNDP Yogam, was a prominent contractor for the Konkan Railway project in the 1990s.
He operated under the leadership of E. Sreedharan, who was the Chairman and Managing Director (CMD) of the Konkan Railway Corporation Limited.
Tushar Vellappally is the chief of the BDJS and a prominent businessman by himself.
Closer analyses suggest the BJP should be happy winning 5-9 seats. It has evolving prospects but the influence is 'limited' especially for assembly polls. Even die-hard BJP supporter may end up voting for CPI-M and LDF because "they may not like their votes to be wasted".
An overwhelming Hindu voters may hate CPI-M especially in the context of Hindutva politics; but they hate the UDF more ... not merely for Congress. They hate it with more intensity
.... because the Muslim League is a very crucial constituent of the UDF.
These factors go in favour of the LDF. But 10 year's incumbency factor is too strong to be countered even as the Chief Minister is trying his best.
Amid all these the talk about BJP-CPI(M) deal is reshaping the political ground zero.
In certain constituencies such as Palakkad assembly segment; where the BJP has a fair chance of win; the communists have perhaps deliberately given a 'weak candidate' and that a Muslim.
Sobha Surendran of BJP is pitted against Ramesh Pisharody of Congress while the LDF nominee is N.M.R. Razaq.
The reading is 'religious polarisation' may help the BJP candidate.
"The communist candidate at best has done politics amongst hotel owners and their professional association or chamber. If BJP picks up this seat; it is gift from Chief Minister Vijayan to Narendra Modi," says a political analyst Josan Varghese.
Kerala goes to the polls on April 9 along with Assam.
The CPI-M-led dispensation faces a key test after its 2021 surprise win but "poor performance" in the just concluded local body elections.
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is out of power since 2016 and hence quite desperate to bounce back to power.
Those who support the BJP say the Lotus party has made considerable inroads into Kerala despite perceptions that it has neglected the party organisation for long.
In all likelihood; opinion makers say the state of Kerala is likely to vote along communal and political lines.
The CPI-M is also banking on Congress weakness - the gross infighting among ambitious leaders.
BJP courts Kerala Christians after ‘subaltern Hindutva’ fizzles
The party seeks new allies in its quest for power, but can it overcome its minority hurdle? The BJP has been keen to tap Christians' potential-support base in Kerala but nothing big is expected on that score.
The Congress has a strong pro-Christian image in the state.
In Thrissur, BJP's nominee is Padmaja Venugopal, daughter of former Congress veteran K Karunakaran.
There is a triangular contest amongst her, CPI nonimee Alancode Leelakrishnan and Rajan Pallan of the Congress.
Alankode Leelakrishnan is a poet and cultural activist. He recently said that he was not mentally prepared to become a candidate but is gradually coming to terms with the new role.
Leelakrishnan also maintained that he had long been a 'fellow traveller of the Left movement'.
“But the support of those standing with me gives me strength, and I am slowly adapting to the role of a candidate .... The communist movement has always moved forward by overcoming crises. It is the only humanist movement that stands firmly against communalism and racism,” he said.
He further said - “Religious fundamentalism can only be defeated by secular humanism. Religion cannot be countered with religion. The Left movement has consistently stood for humanity".
The Congress candidate Rajan Pallan is a former mayor.
For her part Padmaja has targeted AICC general secretary K C Venugopal, holding him primarily responsible for her exit from the Congress and describing him as a key reason for her disillusionment with the Congress party.
In 2024 parliamentary elections; the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat went to BJP with actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi as its candidate. But the star factor worked most.
Padmaja (66) had contested unsuccessfully on a Congress ticket in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections and later in the 2016 and 2024 Assembly elections from Thrissur. She joined BJP in 2024 only.
ends
No comments:
Post a Comment