Look at the trap ... Donald Trump has created for himself and walked into with his pomp and ego.
Pentagon is preparing for possible ground action in Iran. But is that so simple?
The Persian DNA is still not out of fashion to talk about. Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says:
“Our firing continues. Our missiles are in place. Our determination and faith have increased".
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| Houthi supporters hold up mock missiles during anti-US protest in Sanaa, Yemen (Aljazeera snap) |
Iran has warned the US that it is prepared to confront any ground assault, accusing Washington of secretly planning a land attack while publicly seeking talks. Thus War is far from over.
Or rather ... it may be a beginning and it has mounted pressure on Donald Trump as he finds no good excuse to convince Americans that the US has won the battle.
Here comes the relevance of Operation Sindoor.
The Indian political leadership and the military commanders had planned the attack and executed it precisely. Within three-four targets the Mission was accomplished in the sense -- a powerful message was given to Pakistan and the terror infrastructures were destroyed.
"Once the political and diplomatic missions of the military plans were achieved, there was no wisdom to keep Operation Sindoor continuing. While India acted smart and announced ceasefire; Donald Trump has walked into a trap of long-term military conflict and the US has paid substantial price for the same," says an expert in Delhi.
He also maintains that Pakistan hardly had any option other than 'making a request' to end the military conflict because the price it was paying was much bigger in every sense of the terms including casualties. But it goes without stating -- keeping the war go for long would have also hurt India's economy in terms of adverse fallout on the Stock Market and inflation.
Hence, ceasefire within days was a perfect military plan and an equally perfect execution by the executives and political leadership.
Trump has walked into a trap. Perhaps he over estimated the US military prowess in the changing dynamics and underestimated the Iranian and Persian strength of resilience and patience. The US is claiming death of one military commander or another -- one after another at times. But these do not mean the entire Iranian army has collapsed.
The professional military planners in Washington should have known no modern army collapses just because the commander has been eliminated. Modern military leadership works according to a system and the Iranians too have it.
The bitter lesson from the Iran war is --
1. Unlike asymmetric warfare, where a weaker force uses unconventional tactics (IEDs, guerrilla, cyber) to exploit a stronger enemy's weaknesses, a Symmetric war focuses on direct confrontation.
2. Whenever a symmetric force is fighting an asymmetric force; the 'weaker' side will try to draw the stronger force into the 'escalation trap' and that exactly Iran has done. This has created the quagmire for the US as well Israeli forces.
How quagmire ?
Yemen’s Houthis have entered the Iran war by launching strikes on Israel, and some analysts have warned their arrival could open another front in the conflict – the potential blockade of Bab al-Mandeb, a strait that presents another chokepoint in the global commodities trade.
The Iran-backed Houthi rebels control key areas along the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping lane connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
By controlling this, they are able to attack, threaten, or disrupt the nearly 12% of global trade.
This shows the American tension will mount many more times. This will have global impact and make the Trump dispensation more unpopular in the west. The US will come under immense pressure.
The situation may drag to a point where the US may be forced to forced to 'quit' the battle on any damn excuse. This will be humiliating ... and more humiliating and humbling than the Joe Biden administration faced in 2020 in Afghanistan.
Now comes a catch.
When Tehran has stated that the Iranian forces were “waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground"; they are not telling something in the air or a piece of fiction.
When it comes to ground forces - Trump will be able to depute only 3000 to 4000 troops. This would mean much less 'man-power' against an established and trained army.
Trump's bravado has given Iran more reasons to laugh and cherish about.
One can imagine the numbers of body-bags that will return home !
Trump's strategy is actually - a tragedy that is going to buy casualties. Trump has put his foot in the mouth precisely. And many countries including India and others in the Gulf have started realising this.
Five key Middle Eastern nations— the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan—have intensified their security cooperation with Ukraine.
This is largely because, they know the US will be busy elsewhere.
Ukraine has deployed specialist military teams to these nations to help defend critical civilian and military infrastructure from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones.
A good military planning is not done just because you have a stronger force. Many non-military factors too work behind the scenes, and the commanders cannot wish them away.
Take 1971, the story of India's Bangladesh war would have been different, had India planned and gone ahead with the idea of entering Bangladesh by April-May. The East Pakistan would have flooded in June and the Indian army could have cut a sorry figure.
Thanks to Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw; he knew when to say 'No' to the Prime Minister; and credit ought to be given to Indira Gandhi for listening to the counseling of the technical experts on the field.
In May 2025; PM Narendra Modi did the same thing; and thank God; the Operation Sindoor was not extended.
ends
ends
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