Rural Yadav voters to go to RJD ::: But non-Yadavs polarisation likely .... Jungle Raj is still talked about and pro-Hindutva and women voters committed to prevent 'return of Lalu days'

Rural Yadav voters to go to RJD ::: But non-Yadavs polarisation likely .... 

Nitish Kumar's biggest advantage is 'Jungle Raj' is still talked about 

Pro-Hindutva and women voters committed to prevent 'return of Lalu days'

Rural Yadav voters to go to RJD ::: But non-Yadavs polarisation not rules out 

Ground report from areas in and around Muzaffarpur,  Rajgir and Nalanda give a clear impression that good roads and surplus water will help the BJP-JD(U) and other NDA constituents. 

"One part of the story about is never told properly .... last 20 years Nitish babu ensured good roads and improvement in infrastructures; now any new regime or a new chief minister with credible face can attract investment," says Satish Jha, a grocery trader in Nalanda. 

A teacher and a local newspaper columnist Pradip Singh agrees with him broadly and says: "Come what may, Tejashwi Yadav does not have pro-development image. Congress is weak organisationally. So if Opposition alliance wins; Bihar will go backwards. New Delhi analysts are missing this point".  

However, in many areas people say in rural areas; the Yadav votes will go enbloc in favour of RJD and even Congress too. 

The first round of polling on Nov 6th showed a large section of voters especially women still want to prevent 'return of jungle raj'. The refrain from this school of thought is -- let us vote in large numbers and ensure continuity under Nitish Kumar. 

A section of voters dispute this argument.  Sunil Kumar, a local RJD leader in Muzaffarpur said - "The ground is now clear for the rejection of the NDA and Nitish Kumar and hence party workers are jumping ship and joining us". 

But he admits - the opposition campaign could have been better. "Without knowing we might have committed mistakes... to talk about Haryana poll debacle just 48 hours before Bihar polls was an unwise move by Rahul Gandhi. Our party should register a protest against such moves," says Sunil Kumar.  

The saffron party supporters claim their campaign strategy has been very good. "Our strategists and chanakya Amit Shah ji have ensured multi-pronged campaign style. Yogi Adityanath ji's campaign in select constituencies where there are pro-Hindutva voters are working well in our favour. UP chief minister is addressing gatherings of 20,000 and more and while PM Narendra Modi and other addressing large gathering.  

Analysts say after belligerent attempts to make deeper penetration, finally the saffron party was no longer keen to project any BJP leader as Chief Ministerial face. This was pragmatic polity and it also shows immense acceptability of Nitish Kumar. One Muslim voter in Rajgir says : "No body is talking about Nitish Kumar as a big factor in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Had he been projected as the prime ministerial face of the INDI alliance; things would have been different. Real man of the match in 2024 was Nitish Kumar". 

Nevertheless; he says minorities will vote for RJD-led combine although Muslims know at the national level Congress is too weak and "too much misguided and clueless about fighting Narendra Modi". 

He too admits, Bihar's priority now must be development whether under Nitish Kumar and under Tejashwi Yadav. 

Devashish Das, a retired banker in Patna, says - "It is to the credit of Nitish Kumar after so many years in power and after so many times changing sides three times with BJP and two times with RJD; people still talk good about him. Nitish Kumar as a 'paltu lal' is spoken more as a joke and there may not be any negative voting against him personally".  

Das further says: "I have been in touch with people who are close to the RSS. In 2023 itself; the strong RSS feedback to the BJP national leadership was Nitish Kumar should be won over from the opposition camp... he was the match winner in 2024 Lok Sabha polls and he would do well again".    

Out of 121 seats that went to the polls on Nov 6th; the RJD had won 65 in 2020 polls. Lalu Prasad's party may retain the same numbers yet again but NDA tally too may increase modestly and come near 60 or so. 

For JD-U; the fact that NDA has LJP (Ram Vilas) with them is an advantage as in 2020; many seats were affected and lost due to LJP factor. But a JD-U booth worker M Ibrahim in Muzaffarpur says - "There is still a concern about LJP (Ram Vilas). Chirag Paswan may create problems if he manages 15 seats out of 29 he is contesting. He may even bargain with Lalu and Tejashwi for chief ministership. So we want him to  do well but he should not touch double figures".  

Among other factors in this year's polls is the Muslim factor and the AIMIM factor. The party is contesting in 29 seats as against 35 it had planned earlier. The AIMIM had won five seats in five and damaged several others for the RJD. Asaduddin Owaisi's party may repeat the game this time too; but apparently the Muslim voters will be more cautious this time so that their votes do not split. The peculiarity of Muslim-stronghold segments has been that in 201o and 2020; many such seats went to BJP. 

But in 2015 with Nitish and Lalu Prasad fighting together - the NDA had to eat humble pie.

Local analysts dismiss Prashant Kishor's party prospects and say at best his candidates will be vote cutters. Four candidates withdrew in favour of the BJP-led NDA already.  

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